sjjones (09-11-2019)
I tend to think its more luck than anything else. I do think things like a good and deep bullpen tend to help in one run wins, but by how much? I think things like psychology tend to play in to things, especially if you are on one side of the debate more often than not. If you have won a large percentage of one run games you tend to think you will win those games. The same can be said about the losing side, you are always waiting for the next show to drop.
I do think in short series, or in the micro, you can control the outcome more. I also think Bell was pressing early in the year which led to his pen being burned out as the season went along. I do find in somewhat alarming that it has been two managerial staffs who have struggled in one run games. Is there something more to this?
Does anybody know how often the Reds offense scored while behind, to cut the lead to one, and lost?
Not time to "Blow it up" At least not yet.
2020 is going to be our best chance to contend for the next 5 years, barring a miracle. The front office has gone "all in" whether we like it or not. (Personally, I am glad they are trying).
2021 might be another year to go for it, it is too early to tell.
2022, we have Sonny Gray as a pending FA, along with Lorenzen, maybe some other guys, I really don't have time to check. Plus, the normal variables of guys getting older, getting hurt over 2 years, etc.. Of course, a chance we might get help from the farm in those 2 years, but honestly, no much left in the farm (maybe 1 or 2 players).. They could go into rebuild mode by trading Gray, Lorenzen, other Pending FA or expensive guys.. If they don't, the team will likely be bad in 2023 (Barring an influx of talent) and we will be back to another 5 year drought..
So let's enjoy this while we can.. the Grim Reaper is going to return soon enough and we will be back to hoping for the next Robert Stephenson to lead us back to glory and collecting prospects.. I really don't like that phase.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Revering4Blue (09-09-2019),wlf WV (09-12-2019)
REDREAD (09-10-2019)
Being 13 and 11 with +14 is definately skewing things not as bad as earlier in the year when we were 8-1 in these type of games and a +44 run differential. The blowouts are starting to even out and the run differential has been correcting itself to show the true level talent.
REDREAD (09-10-2019)
They're trending toward a slightly negative run differential, but they were -123 last year. This season has been a colossal leap. If we look at their final run differential as a more accurate reflection of their true talent, then they've got something to build on. I think it's going to take some inventive moves to get to the next level, but it makes for interesting possibilities.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
REDREAD (09-10-2019),Revering4Blue (09-10-2019)
For the last couple of years (1-18) there were numerous articles written about how good the minor league system was. I think the FO assumed they could acquire good talent and things would work out. They either missed the development piece or the talent was over -rated. I think it was the development piece. For a couple of years - no one really improved their skills. I think that may be changing and maybe it's possible they are taking care of this piece now.
I'm hoping the FO evaluated the system. Found out that they were not developing players and understood that it takes a while to get that piece rectified. That being the case - you trade minor league players before they lose too much value -with the knowledge that you can't develop them and need to get something for them. My memory is poor - but i think at this time last year Fangraphs had the system rated 3rd in FV. Recently, BA had the system ranked 20th. Trading minor leaguers for MLB talent (with the knowledge that you cannot develop) is a smart thing to do.
REDREAD (09-10-2019),Revering4Blue (09-10-2019)
I think they may have something to build on. I wish they were in the Indians place. You can have a much better record in the al because they have a ton of bad teams. I would love playing the Tigers Royals and white Sox 19 times a year. Look at how we did against the Marlins. Plus we would play Orioles Mariners and blue Jays another 6 games each.
But I am not sure how we can increase the talent level. This looks to be at best a .500 team going into next year
REDREAD (09-10-2019)
REDREAD (09-10-2019)
Here’s an interesting look at the run differential.
https://twitter.com/darenw/status/1171430773427073029
If they come back with the same team I wouldn't expect any notable improvement. In fact, I could see the argument that they could see their run differential dip. The case for getting better lies in the hands of a fairly small number of players.
Yet they've got pieces to make deals. We're going to have to see who's buying and who's selling this winter. More importantly, are the Reds willing to make some unconventional moves?
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
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