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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #166
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    For a team like the Reds, trades for good one or two year players is a necessity.

    The Reds can’t afford many LTCs. An LTC like Bailey’s made it difficult for the team to operate.

    To add the necessary veterans to win will require some to be on short term deals.

    There are two advantages of short term veteran deals.

    1. If the player gets seriously hurt or declines you aren’t stuck with him for too long.
    2. If the player leaves in a year or two, you can fill his salary slot with a new very good player.

    Often the teams trading these very good one or two year players want prospects as part of the return. If the Reds are to have a good mix of youngsters and veterans, short and long term contract players, expensive and cheap players, they must be in this market.

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    757690 (09-14-2019),herbdizzle (09-14-2019)


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  4. #167
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    For a team like the Reds, trades for good one or two year players is a necessity.

    The Reds can’t afford many LTCs. An LTC like Bailey’s made it difficult for the team to operate.

    To add the necessary veterans to win will require some to be on short term deals.

    There are two advantages of short term veteran deals.

    1. If the player gets seriously hurt or declines you aren’t stuck with him for too long.
    2. If the player leaves in a year or two, you can fill his salary slot with a new very good player.

    Often the teams trading these very good one or two year players want prospects as part of the return. If the Reds are to have a good mix of youngsters and veterans, short and long term contract players, expensive and cheap players, they must be in this market.
    They are controlled for a bargain for 6 years at the mlb level.

    Homer’s contract? No. Vottos contract is the one killing the current team

  5. #168
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by foster15 View Post
    I think he's referring to Downs also. Either way, deals are made without crystal ball. The Reds imo are in a position to move forward and I'm not sweating the past deals. Heck they might turn Bauer into someone else on a one or two year contract at some point and then MM83's post is meaningless.
    Right. Downs was part of the original deal which begot Puig. Who is actually producing in the majors that they traded out of these prospects. It is Long. The others might at some point but Long is the only one now and they got Gray out of it. So for now I’m only looking at who’s producing in the majors now.

    I still think the Teds development staff is very average at best.

  6. #169
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by foster15 View Post
    A lot of you seem to feel the Reds need to be great at every position. No team is.

    After checking out the difference in key stats between the Reds and the division leading Cardinals, the one thing that stands out to me is Pitching and especially relief pitching. The Cardinals relievers have better stats than their starters. The Reds need to shoot for the same while improving their starting pitching a little at the same time. The Cardinals have scored 28 more runs than the Reds. Joey Votto needs to make 2019 an outlier by having an improved 2020 (doesn't have to be 2010 or 2017 Joey Votto for this to happen) to make up a lot of those runs if everything else remains unchanged. And while we can't just flip a switch to make that happen, we have him under contract for about 4 more years so we have to hope that happens. Being he's batting in the 2 hole rather than the 3 hole should mean those Runs scored should come easier than in the past.

    The Reds do not need much improvement anywhere other than relief pitching to contend. Blowing it up would be ridiculous without attempting to fix the relief pitching first.
    They don't need to be great at every position, but as things stand right now, other than 3B, I expect this current group of players to be below average at every position.Who will be the above average or even average reds at the other spots?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  7. #170
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Gray
    Downs were both top 10 prospects this time last year
    Long was as well
    Obviously Trammell

    Long was traded for a low value, upside risk that wanted off a team
    And committed years to the reds. It was a good trade.

    The other 3 prospects were effectively traded for Bauer. Terrible

  8. #171
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by MM83 View Post
    Gray
    Downs were both top 10 prospects this time last year
    Long was as well
    Obviously Trammell

    Long was traded for a low value, upside risk that wanted off a team
    And committed years to the reds. It was a good trade.

    The other 3 prospects were effectively traded for Bauer. Terrible
    If the Reds are in contention next year, it was worth those three to add Bauer.
    If not, the Reds can trade Bauer at the deadline for some more prospects.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  9. #172
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The Reds have, at least temporarily, dispatched with the illusion of control. They've gone full Thoreau - the things you own actually own you. I don't know if it's ultimately going to deliver the results we want, but the improvement has been tangible (that run differential gain is legit). You're insisting they obey a lot of rules that made them the worst team in MLB for the 2015-18 stretch. Putting those rules in a sack with a bunch of rocks and tossing it into the Ohio River might be the most sensible thing the Reds have done in years.
    Or it’s just flailing.

  10. #173
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the Reds are in contention next year, it was worth those three to add Bauer.
    If not, the Reds can trade Bauer at the deadline for some more prospects.
    I think they should trade him this winter. Get a rental bat (the Reds need several) a prospect who can replace that rental in 2021 and use the money to sign a replacement starter.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  11. #174
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the Reds are in contention next year, it was worth those three to add Bauer.
    If not, the Reds can trade Bauer at the deadline for some more prospects.
    I’d rather the Reds get actual name players (like Puig) and convert them to prospects than go get someone with warts, a good size contract, and minimal prospect return.

    I’d be ok adding Bauer as depth in a real contention season, but 2020 ain’t it

  12. #175
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    They don't need to be great at every position, but as things stand right now, other than 3B, I expect this current group of players to be below average at every position.Who will be the above average or even average reds at the other spots?
    Since Catcher and SS are normally weak hitting positions, anything we get above average there is gravy. Aquino, Senzel, Ervin and Votto can certainly be average or better. Van Meter hasn't been terrible in his first MLB experience and could/should improve.

    Yes, offensively they is nothing to be terribly excited about, but I believe offenses are easier to manipulate than pitching staffs and this team needs to make their pitching staff as good as possible and then work secondarily on offense.

    If the Reds had a great starting 8 but their pitching was below average, we would still be in 70 win category with no clear way to get out of it. But if their pitching was great from top to bottom, and their batting was costing them wins, it would be much more of a probability to fix those problems during or after the season. Reds were mid pack in 2018 when it came to offense and have dropped quickly in one season. They could just as quickly rise back in one season.

    I'm a firm believer that pitching is the most important thing you can have on a baseball team these days and once you have that, you then make easier moves to increase your offense.

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    Old school 1983 (09-15-2019)

  14. #176
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It was still "prospects will save us." They didn't. Plus, I remain fine with the prospects they've dealt away. They've identified what they clearly think is a market inefficiency. Everyone's chasing control and then getting stuck when their payrolls get bloated. The Reds might be shuffling shorter-term guys, hoping a turnstile operation gets more talent on the roster than they can grow on the farm or afford to keep on extended deals.
    Trading away 1st and 2nd round draft picks for 1 year rentals is not a market inefficiency, it's idiotic is what it is.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I actually think the plan was to make a quick rebuild behind a Bailey, Iglesias, Disco rotation and offense with Votto and Mesoraco driving in fleas. Where they went wrong was what they did after that blew up in their face with the injuries to Bailey, Mesoraco and Disco and Iglesias being unable to hold-up as a starter. I think their own and acquired prospects - Lorenzen, Finnegan, Reed, Garrett, Stephenson, Mella were viewed as guys to fill the back of the rotation and the bullpen with the idea that one or two might step forward as staff leaders eventually but weren't necessary to be part of the core to contend. Whne that rotation plan evaporated the rushed the kids, rushed guys back from injuries and turned to the scrap heap while wasting Votto's prime hoping it would all come together. Their plan B was simply non-existent and I think had a lot to do with why a lot of those guys took so long to come back from injuries and why so many of those kids couldn't make the jump to the big leagues. The only decisive moves they made were to put Iglesias and Lorenzen in the bullpen and I think they both worked out pretty well. It was all the indecision and hoping that caused the problems.

    They did make a pretty big misjudgment on offense with a lot of their plan built around low on base, low power speedsters providing a top of the order for their MVP to drive in. THat plan was doomed from the beginning.
    Finnegan and Stephenson were not supposed to fill in the back of the rotation, they were supposed to the 2019 Reds #1 and #2.

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    REDREAD (09-16-2019)

  16. #177
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Trading away 1st and 2nd round draft picks for 1 year rentals is not a market inefficiency, it's idiotic is what it is.
    Thank you

  17. #178
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    For a team like the Reds, trades for good one or two year players is a necessity.

    The Reds can’t afford many LTCs. An LTC like Bailey’s made it difficult for the team to operate.
    No it isn't.

    Yes they can.

  18. #179
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Trading away 1st and 2nd round draft picks for 1 year rentals is not a market inefficiency, it's idiotic is what it is.
    2019 was robbing Peter to pay Paul in an effort to not lose the fan base. I get why they did it but it was still idiotic. They probably lost confidence that their minor leaguers could contribute 'cause it'd been so long since they'd gotten production from their prospects. They didn't foresee the contributions of Aquino, Senzel and Van Meter.

  19. #180
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If the Reds are in contention next year, it was worth those three to add Bauer.
    If not, the Reds can trade Bauer at the deadline for some more prospects.
    The Reds won't be in contention next year unless they gut the farm this winter or go out and spend a butt load of money.

    "If not, the Reds can trade WOOD at the deadline for some prospect".

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    REDREAD (09-16-2019)


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