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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #301
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    If you're talking about developing prospects, great. Houston is a wonderful model. What's your point?
    I thought that's what we've been talking about these last several pages? - farm systems, developing prospects (LOL).

    My point? You said we should follow the Astro's model. I agreed. What is the Astro's (GM Luhnow's) model? You begin with a strong farm system, developing talent. And he utilized those assets (prospects) as needed, had no issues trading #1 draft picks, top prospects, in accordance to his plan, to build/better the team. #1 picks are just another ballplayer.

    You, and others, are on here saying "Last place teams don't trade away their #1 draft picks, top prospects, if they want to go anywhere!"

    The Astros did. And JMO, but I don't think market-size was much of an influence on Luhnow when he makes those decisions either. The objective is to identify and acquire talent utilizing all and any means available - and in according to his plan.

    And IMO, that's the Red's management's problem when it comes to their farm system. This thinking of - "Oh! We're a small market team and we can't afford to trade away our top prospects because we expect ALL of them to field our roster and be under our control for 6 years." is a faulty plan. How has that worked out so far? As Luhnow stated, when it comes to top prospects ...

    “You want so desperately for that to work out, to validate all the people involved in making that decision,” said Luhnow, who holds a master’s degree in business administration from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern. “But there’s a concept in business school called ‘forget sunk costs,’ an economic concept that if things change, you can’t continue to invest in that outcome improving if it’s not going to get better. There’s certain times you just have to change your strategy. We did that in both cases.”
    Not the Reds. They hold onto those "assets" until their value ain't worth nothing and they can't get anything for them. And we can all sight numerous examples, over the last decade, where the Reds could've sold high on some players while they had value, yet held firm.

    They don't seem to have a firm plan. At least nothing like what Luhnow has devised. The Red's seem to be too haphazard, knee-jerk.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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  4. #302
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Probably the biggest difference between the Reds and Houston is data collection and then knowing what to do with the data.

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  6. #303
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Except the Reds did just what you suggested GAC. Now the execution can be critiqued, but the plan was use the farm to better the MLB team. They traded their top prospect to get Bauer. They traded three more in the top 15 in deals with the Dodgers and Yankees. They landed a legit ace in Gray, another in Bauer despite the results so far, and a talented but brittle #2 in Wood. They freed up positions for several players from the farm age 26 and under while keeping a core of veterans.

    VanMeter, Aquino, Farmer, and Senzel all produced, but none are sure things going forward. SS is an issue. Finding the right position/role for the aforementioned is an issue. Jesse Winker's health is an issue.

    But since we are forecasting next year, It sure seems like the David Bell's job is safe. And that he wants Lorenzen in CF more often. What exactly does that mean for Senzel? Is he destined for 2B? Will Winker be 100% by OD?

    One of the problems with talent acquisition is space. Hard to get rid of an injured player. I think everyone agrees that the SS next year is either Iglesias or Galvis. Like it or don't, they are the likeliest of options. I think 2B is going to be VanMeter, though I believe it should be Senzel. I think this because I don't believe the Reds will make a move for a CF.

    I think the area the Reds have trouble with is the sunk cost part, but they made huge strides in that this year. They let Hamilton go, Bailey, then Kemp followed by Puig.

    I think they are following more of an Oakland model than Houston in that they don't care when the breakout occurs, just that they need to capitalize on it, and that they control said player while he is cheap.

    It's weird, but I think the Reds actually have a plan. Everyone can argue the merits of the plan and the individual transactions, but They have acquired a lot of players over the last 2 seasons. They have thought outside the box in terms of utilization (Lorenzen) and development (Finnegan). They cut bait on their top prospect, mostly, IMO because they felt his value to the team was not as a player but as the return for the right player in Bauer.
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  8. #304
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    Probably the biggest difference between the Reds and Houston is data collection and then knowing what to do with the data.
    IMO, I thik the Red's have the department (staff) that gathers plenty of data. The issue is those in charge of "what to do with that data".

    Not everybody can have a Bill James in their organization. But they don't have to, as far as one aspect goes - data collection. James just "opened the door" (wider). So the issue, IMO, anymore isn't data collection (access) as much as it's those then having the responsibility to interpret that data and make something out of it. Build a plan. It's not an easy thing to do because, IMO, it goes beyond simply having the formal education (degree). It takes one who has intellect, but their intuitive business mind ... look at probabilities, high risk, low risk, good deal, bad deal, when others don't see it ... make them "gifted", a rise above the rest.

    I think MLB is finding this out, maybe still behind the times somewhat on this, when it comes to hiring their execs, building their front offices.

    A PHD can also stand for Post Hole Digger I was always told.
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  9. #305
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    Except the Reds did just what you suggested GAC. Now the execution can be critiqued, but the plan was use the farm to better the MLB team. They traded their top prospect to get Bauer. They traded three more in the top 15 in deals with the Dodgers and Yankees. They landed a legit ace in Gray, another in Bauer despite the results so far, and a talented but brittle #2 in Wood. They freed up positions for several players from the farm age 26 and under while keeping a core of veterans.

    VanMeter, Aquino, Farmer, and Senzel all produced, but none are sure things going forward. SS is an issue. Finding the right position/role for the aforementioned is an issue. Jesse Winker's health is an issue.

    But since we are forecasting next year, It sure seems like the David Bell's job is safe. And that he wants Lorenzen in CF more often. What exactly does that mean for Senzel? Is he destined for 2B? Will Winker be 100% by OD?

    One of the problems with talent acquisition is space. Hard to get rid of an injured player. I think everyone agrees that the SS next year is either Iglesias or Galvis. Like it or don't, they are the likeliest of options. I think 2B is going to be VanMeter, though I believe it should be Senzel. I think this because I don't believe the Reds will make a move for a CF.

    I think the area the Reds have trouble with is the sunk cost part, but they made huge strides in that this year. They let Hamilton go, Bailey, then Kemp followed by Puig.

    I think they are following more of an Oakland model than Houston in that they don't care when the breakout occurs, just that they need to capitalize on it, and that they control said player while he is cheap.

    It's weird, but I think the Reds actually have a plan. Everyone can argue the merits of the plan and the individual transactions, but They have acquired a lot of players over the last 2 seasons. They have thought outside the box in terms of utilization (Lorenzen) and development (Finnegan). They cut bait on their top prospect, mostly, IMO because they felt his value to the team was not as a player but as the return for the right player in Bauer.
    Good post. My position, going into this season, hasn't changed on this team .. I want to see positive direction, give me something to hope for moving forward. They did a lot last off-season. Surprised everyone. Probably raised a lot of hopes, as far as '19 was concerned, that was understandable, but somewhat misguided IMO. It's a helluva a leap for a team that was at the bottom for the last four years (LOL).

    I can only speak for myself. But regardless of what their W-L record ends up. And all the other areas of weakness we can discuss on this team position-wise, where they need to address ... I was far more involved, enthusiastic, watching this year's team, it's ups and downs, then I have any Red's team in the last several years.

    This front office has had a year to observe, see what they got, where they need to go over the off-season. While Williams has been in the organization, he's only been the GM in charge since '18. Not really that long IMO. I'm assuming he has a plan. The fact that myself, and all Red's fans in general, don't know every little detail of that plan, only see bits and pieces, scratching our heads try to figure it out, doesn't mean he (they) don't have one.

    It seems to me, looking back on it all now, that William's main objective was .... turning some prospects for established talent (greater value), which in turn would be used to acquire (strengthen) our starting pitching. They got a SS (Galvis), and one of the A's top prospects (Hannah). I think we're going to have a pretty solid rotation next year. IMO, that's where it begins, your foundation. Bauer? Not worried that he's a FA after '20. If he has a solid season for the Reds they have win-win options IMO ... spend some of your money and try to sign him for 2-3 years -or - flip him at the deadline for some top prospects or to fill other dire needs. You find that trading partner. And the Reds have some young arms (Mahle, Sims, Lodolo, Greene, Santillan) moving forward.

    This off-season they have to address the offense. They need to clear out some dead wood (Dietrich, Peraza) and continue to strengthen the bench. That will partially be solved with some of our youth.

    SS? Iglesias or Galvis? A lot of teams, looking at the market, wish they were in the Red's spot. Whoever the Reds keep, the other will be snatched up IMO. I prefer Iglesias, but have no issues with Galvis. We know we'll have an established SS next year.

    Suarez is a monster, and they need to build around him. I think Nick needs to move to 2B. Your INF is then pretty much set for '20. You got Van Meter on the bench too.

    OF? Now it gets kinda dicey. Winker, Aquino, Ervin, Van Meter. All question marks. I like Winker. Aquino obviously deserves a shot (RF). But whose our CFer? IMO, this is where the Reds need to make their splash in the market. Either that or the Catcher position.
    Last edited by GAC; 09-19-2019 at 07:54 AM.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Good post. My position, going into this season, hasn't changed on this team .. I want to see positive direction, give me something to hope for moving forward. They did a lot last off-season. Surprised everyone. Probably raised a lot of hopes, as far as '19 was concerned, that was understandable, but somewhat misguided IMO. It's a helluva a leap for a team that was at the bottom for the last four years (LOL).

    I can only speak for myself. But regardless of what their W-L record ends up. And all the other areas of weakness we can discuss on this team position-wise, where they need to address ... I was far more involved, enthusiastic, watching this year's team, it's ups and downs, then I have any Red's team in the last several years.

    This front office has had a year to observe, see what they got, where they need to go over the off-season. While Williams has been in the organization, he's only been the GM in charge since '18. Not really that long IMO. I'm assuming he has a plan. The fact that myself, and all Red's fans in general, don't know every little detail of that plan, only see bits and pieces, scratching our heads try to figure it out, doesn't mean he (they) don't have one.

    It seems to me, looking back on it all now, that William's main objective was .... turning some prospects for established talent (greater value), which in turn would be used to acquire (strengthen) our starting pitching. They got a SS (Galvis), and one of the A's top prospects (Hannah). I think we're going to have a pretty solid rotation next year. IMO, that's where it begins, your foundation. Bauer? Not worried that he's a FA after '20. If he has a solid season for the Reds they have win-win options IMO ... spend some of your money and try to sign him for 2-3 years -or - flip him at the deadline for some top prospects or to fill other dire needs. You find that trading partner. And the Reds have some young arms (Mahle, Sims, Lodolo, Greene, Santillan) moving forward.

    This off-season they have to address the offense. They need to clear out some dead wood (Dietrich, Peraza) and continue to strengthen the bench. That will partially be solved with some of our youth.

    SS? Iglesias or Galvis? A lot of teams, looking at the market, wish they were in the Red's spot. Whoever the Reds keep, the other will be snatched up IMO. I prefer Iglesias, but have no issues with Galvis. We know we'll have an established SS next year.

    Suarez is a monster, and they need to build around him. I think Nick needs to move to 2B. Your INF is then pretty much set for '20. You got Van Meter on the bench too.

    OF? Now it gets kinda dicey. Winker, Aquino, Ervin, Van Meter. All question marks. I like Winker. Aquino obviously deserves a shot (RF). But whose our CFer? IMO, this is where the Reds need to make their splash in the market. Either that or the Catcher position.
    Thank you for being a front office apologist.
    Last edited by InsaneinthBrame; 09-20-2019 at 10:46 PM.

  12. #307
    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Thank you for being a front office apologist.
    Useless post.
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  14. #308
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by SunDeck View Post
    Useless post.
    It is not useless it just points out how the reds fan base does not hold the men in charge accountable. Because the persons ranting is way off since Dick William's was GM in 2015 not starting in 2018. This team is in bad shape because of this ownership and front office which is the extension of ownership.

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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    It is not useless it just points out how the reds fan base does not hold the men in charge accountable. Because the persons ranting is way off since Dick William's was GM in 2015 not starting in 2018. This team is in bad shape because of this ownership and front office which is the extension of ownership.
    Dick Williams might have been GM in title before 2018 but a clue to what that involved seems to be staring us in the face now. It was same old, same old until Jocketty retired and now we're seeing different strategies in acquiring players. Strategies that are making sense. I didn't understand the Puig trade in its entirety since he had only one year left in contract and no way was going to resign with the Reds. But then he turned it into a full season of Trevor Bauer if desired or he might turn around and trade Bauer before his contract is up. To me the goal is to get a quality half of 2020 out of him while we find another starter within the organization and then trade him for another need.

    Whether Williams' strategies work, well, that remains to be seen, but I certainly have more hope for the near future than I did before he started wheeling and dealing during the off-season.

    I'm not normally a front office apologist as I've hated the cheapness and the attempts to pull the wool over the fans' eyes and I wouldn't be surprised iif that's what happens again. But at least now they're doing it with trades that make some sense rather than urinating down our leg and telling us it's raining by hyping players we know won't pan out.

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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    It’s an interesting upcoming off season because the Reds’ best asset is money to spend. They don’t have available prospects or veterans to trade straight up for the players they need.

    Spending on MLB talent has always been a weak spot. Small market Reds have been second (or third) string spenders on MLB talent.

    I’m confident they will spend money this off-season, but at what level? A few modest pickups, second tier players? Good players but only one-year contracts? Or will ownership go beyond the currently available “cap space”, kick in some additional dollars, and make FA or trade deals to get one or more top tier players for a few seasons.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-21-2019 at 07:50 AM.

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  18. #311
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Because the persons ranting is way off since Dick William's was GM in 2015 not starting in 2018
    The only one ranting is you. And the position I was referring to was not GM, but President of Baseball Operations.


    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Thank you for being a front office apologist.
    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    It is not useless it just points out how the reds fan base does not hold the men in charge accountable.
    Their low attendance is the most direct voice exercised by fans. What are you doing to hold them accountable? Other then running your mouth, trying to show how tough you are Billy Bob?

    So there's "No need to go heeled to get the bulge on a tub like you"

    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  19. #312
    First Time Caller SunDeck's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    It is not useless it just points out how the reds fan base does not hold the men in charge accountable. Because the persons ranting is way off since Dick William's was GM in 2015 not starting in 2018. This team is in bad shape because of this ownership and front office which is the extension of ownership.
    The Reds are drawing 22,000 per game, so it seems the fan base is speaking rather loudly about the direction of the club. In addition, people on this board come together to talk about the club they love and for that fact alone they should be afforded more respect than the pejorative "apologist" conveys. What would be the point of Redszone if everyone agreed, or if every conversation were just a series of one liners accusing those with different opinions of being stooges, apologists, defenders of the idiot brigade?
    Next Reds manager, second shooter. --Confirmed on Redszone.

  20. #313
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Obviously Houston did it right but I don’t see them trading prospects for one year rentals very often.

  21. #314
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    I thought the reds tried this past off season it just failed fairly spectacularly. They're on a treadmill now. The youth ain't good enough and the veterans ain't good enough. There is no cavalry, doubling payroll probably couldn't sustainably get them out of this mess and they don't really have the chips to trade or make nachos. Whether they should blow it up or not really isn't the question. They obviously should. The question is whether this is the FO to trust with doing it. Is it talented enough to get the talent on the field where it needs to be? Last season they shuffled the deck chairs hoping for a better view this year. That's not really a plan.

    If they're purposefully going to journey to the depths of despair, we fans kind of need to trust that we can follow them.
    Last edited by jojo; 09-21-2019 at 09:27 AM.
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  23. #315
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Obviously Houston did it right but I don’t see them trading prospects for one year rentals very often.
    It’s not a problem if the prospects are middling. The problem is the Reds can’t foster their talent and find the best niche

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