Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

[redswin]

They are currently +5 in Runs for the year while being 10 games under .500. This seems like a statistical anomaly for sure. Do you think they'll finish the year with a positive differential?

[TNRED]

At this point what are the chances that anyone cares?

[matt2112]

That "statistical anomaly" goes away real quick when you look at the Red's results versus 2 teams: Miami and San Diego. The Reds are 11-3 against those 2 teams. Miami and San Diego have a combined record of 118-170 - a .410 winning %. The Reds are a combined +37 against them - +30 against Miami and +7 against SD. The Reds are -33 against all other MLB teams.

All it means is the Reds were able to beat up on a couple of bad teams.

[Ladeda]

That "statistical anomaly" goes away real quick when you look at the Red's results versus 2 teams: Miami and San Diego. The Reds are 11-3 against those 2 teams. Miami and San Diego have a combined record of 118-170 - a .410 winning %. The Reds are a combined +37 against them - +30 against Miami and +7 against SD. The Reds are -33 against all other MLB teams.

All it means is the Reds were able to beat up on a couple of bad teams.

REds are minus 21 vs the Pirates. Why cherry pick? A win vs the Marlins is worth the same as a win vs the Dodgers. Run differential is a rough estimate for how good teams are, and you can't exactly just cherry pick 148 out of the 162 games.

BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.

[bm1475]

BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.

In 2011 they scored 735 and allowed 720 and finished 79-83

[Sea Ray]

REds are minus 21 vs the Pirates. Why cherry pick? A win vs the Marlins is worth the same as a win vs the Dodgers. Run differential is a rough estimate for how good teams are, and you can't exactly just cherry pick 148 out of the 162 games.

BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.

Agreed. What would the Astros run differential look like were it not for the Mariners?

[InsaneinthBrame]

Except for early in the year where we had a positive run differential. The run differential has been negative and the team record has reflected this.
It looks like the negative differential since the all star break seems to reflect the current talent level which us a below .500 team.
We have only one starting position player that is not in bottom 1/3 at their position and that is Suarez. Aquino is maybe better but that is it.
The bullpen is average
The starters are above average but that does not mean as much as it use to since they only pitch 6 innings

[redswin]

Seems like the 31 1 loss games had something to with it other than beating 2 out of conference teams.

We are +4 going in to tonight!

[REDREAD]

Down to +2 now.

[North]

Down to +2 now.

Remember the halcyon days of June, when the cognoscenti were pointing to the gaudy numbers, as well touting the best bullpen staff in MLB?

[RedsBrick]

I'll one-up this poll and ask what are the chances they finish ahead of the Pirates?

[REDREAD]

It's kind of interesting, when you sort all teams by run differential, there are five teams in the middle, that are kind of close to 0.. The Mets (+29), Reds (+2) , Phillies (-7), Brewers (-25), and Rangers (-38).
Everyone else is either +70 or greater OR -62 or worse..
Not many ".500-ish" teams based on run differential.
Other than the 5 teams listed above, everyone else is either quite good or quite bad.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_.../group/overall

[redsrule2500]

If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

Change my mind.

[matt2112]

If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

Change my mind.

So you're saying that you think the Reds (at +4) are a better team then the Brewers (at -25)? Even though the Brewers are 77-68 and the Reds are 67-79?

[Wheelhouse]

So you're saying that you think the Reds (at +4) are a better team then the Brewers (at -25)? Even though the Brewers are 77-68 and the Reds are 67-79?

The Brewers are much better managed.