They are currently +5 in Runs for the year while being 10 games under .500. This seems like a statistical anomaly for sure. Do you think they'll finish the year with a positive differential?
+1 or better
-1 or worse
even
They are currently +5 in Runs for the year while being 10 games under .500. This seems like a statistical anomaly for sure. Do you think they'll finish the year with a positive differential?
At this point what are the chances that anyone cares?
That "statistical anomaly" goes away real quick when you look at the Red's results versus 2 teams: Miami and San Diego. The Reds are 11-3 against those 2 teams. Miami and San Diego have a combined record of 118-170 - a .410 winning %. The Reds are a combined +37 against them - +30 against Miami and +7 against SD. The Reds are -33 against all other MLB teams.
All it means is the Reds were able to beat up on a couple of bad teams.
REDREAD (09-12-2019)
Seems like the 31 1 loss games had something to with it other than beating 2 out of conference teams.
We are +4 going in to tonight!
Down to +2 now.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
I'll one-up this poll and ask what are the chances they finish ahead of the Pirates?
It's kind of interesting, when you sort all teams by run differential, there are five teams in the middle, that are kind of close to 0.. The Mets (+29), Reds (+2) , Phillies (-7), Brewers (-25), and Rangers (-38).
Everyone else is either +70 or greater OR -62 or worse..
Not many ".500-ish" teams based on run differential.
Other than the 5 teams listed above, everyone else is either quite good or quite bad.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_.../group/overall
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.
Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.
Change my mind.
redsrule2500
Go Reds!
“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
Not really. As someone else pointed out +30 of the Reds run differential came from the Marlins. They are negative against everyone else.
The fact that teams are tanking is skewing some statistical analysis.
I think the "run differential sniff test" assumes that there is relative parity among teams. The Marlins are a joke and has artificially inflated our run differential. If there's any "luck" factor involved, that's it, IMO.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
REDREAD (09-13-2019),Revering4Blue (09-12-2019)
I don't know that it matters but if we're gonna hold beating the Marlins against the Reds, shouldn't we consider how many runs every other team has scored vs. the Marlins?
Jump to +8
I prematurely voted over without looking at the remaining schedule. Reds have a pretty tough route the rest of the way so it's looking unlikely. But maybe they'll do it.
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