+1 or better
-1 or worse
even
REDREAD (09-13-2019)
REDREAD (09-13-2019)
Yea, I would not mind doing that.. for example, if we were comparing the Reds against another team, and that team was +40 vs the Pirates, then yes, that should be considered. But I am not going to do that work.. someone else can.
IMO, when about a third of baseball teams are tanking, run differential is not as useful of a metric as it used to be.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
Yes
- - - Updated - - -
You're missing my point - a team can be better than another regardless of record, that's just how statistics work. Let's say they played 1,000,000,000 games this season, who would come out ahead? My bet would be on the Reds over the Braves.
redsrule2500
Go Reds!
“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
redsrule2500
Go Reds!
“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
Who cares? They're not going to play a billion games so why even think about such nonsense? My opinion is that we'd still be behind and that our run differential would adjust to our record rather than the other way around...but we'll never settle it so what's the point?
REDREAD (09-13-2019)
My only points in this whole debate are/were:
1. Run differential is basically meaningless as a stat. There are many teams (like the Reds) that can have a losing record but a + run differential. Also there have been many teams (like the Brewers) that have a winning record (the Brewers now hold a playoff spot) but a - run differential.
2. A + run differential this season doesn't necessarily mean the Reds will have a better record next season.
3. A huge amount of the Reds + run differential comes against the Marlins. They have a - run differential against all other MLB teams combined. I realize the Marlins are really awful. But that fact has to mean something.
REDREAD (09-13-2019)
Ok, subtract out the Marlins and any other bad team you want from the Braves and Reds, then show the run differential.
If anything, you are proving my point.. run differential is not as valuable as a tool as it used to be.
I pointed out the tankers.
You basically just pointed out the unbalanced schedule, which is a great point that I overlooked. Makes it tough to compare teams in different divisions by solely using run differential . The Braves +99 looks great, but maybe they got a lot of help from the unbalanced schedule.
[Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob
Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!
REds are minus 21 vs the Pirates. Why cherry pick? A win vs the Marlins is worth the same as a win vs the Dodgers. Run differential is a rough estimate for how good teams are, and you can't exactly just cherry pick 148 out of the 162 games.
BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.
Chip R (09-16-2019)
REDREAD (09-16-2019)
Except for early in the year where we had a positive run differential. The run differential has been negative and the team record has reflected this.
It looks like the negative differential since the all star break seems to reflect the current talent level which us a below .500 team.
We have only one starting position player that is not in bottom 1/3 at their position and that is Suarez. Aquino is maybe better but that is it.
The bullpen is average
The starters are above average but that does not mean as much as it use to since they only pitch 6 innings
REDREAD (09-16-2019)
The Reds are the only team in the majors with a positive run differential and a losing record.
Only 2 teams in the majors have a winning record with a negative run differential and one of those ( the Phillies) are just -3.
That’s a very strong correlation when only 3 teams buck the trend in a major league season.
Edit: in fact, going back to 2003, there is no team who had a positive run differential who are anywhere close to the Reds pace of about 70 wins.
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Last edited by PuffyPig; 09-14-2019 at 05:17 AM.
Ron Madden (09-14-2019)
Seasons- #Teams with Positive Run Diff and Losing Record (Teams):
2018: 0
2017: 1 (LA Angels: +1 Diff 80-82)
2016: 0
2015: 2 (Tampa: +2 Diff 80-82, Arizona +7 Diff 79-83)
2014: 1 (NY Mets: +11 79-83)
2013: 0
2012: 0
2011: 1 (Cinci: +15 79-83)
2010: 2 (Florida: +2 80-82, NY Mets: +4 79-83)
2009: 1 (Toronto: +27 75-87)
2008: 0
2007: 0
2006: 4 (Cleveland: +88 78-84, Texas: +51 80-82, Atlanta: +44 79-83, Colorado: +1 76-86)
2005: 2 (Toronto: +70 80-82, Texas: +7 79-83)
2004: 2 (Baltimore: +13 78-84, Cleveland +2 80-82)
2003: 0
Yup. Every one of those teams were within 5 Wins of posting at least a .500 record (which is actually where the Reds are now).
Of the teams who finished with a positive Run Differential but a losing record, the 2004 Indians, 2005 Blue Jays, 2006 Indians, 2006 Braves, 2006 Rockies, 2009 Blue Jays, 2011 Reds, and 2014 Mets produced positive Run Differentials the following season and finished with winning records. During the same time span, only two teams (2007 Arizona, 2005 San Diego) made the playoffs with a negative Run Diff. The '05 Padres a the beneficiary of an historically weak division. The 2007 Diamondbacks played .625 ball in games decided by three or fewer Runs (see: 2019 Brewers, Milwaukee).
Only Texas reproduced a positive Run Diff and finished with a losing record both season after following up their 2005 .460 record in <3 Run games with a .463 record in 2006.
As you note, there's a very strong correlation between Run Diff and Wins. This season, the correlation is 96.38%. And to your point, Run Differential is nowhere near "meaningless" and it doesn't somehow "adjust to the record". I have no idea why people say things like that. Run Diff is undoubtedly a driver; not a passenger.
At this point in the game's history, the question "Does Run Differential matter?" has been answered in quite a resounding fashion. Outliers exist, but don't serve as evidence trumping the data showing us that teams with positive Run Diffs project to be more successful than teams that consistently score fewer Runs than their opponents.
"The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer
"The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
--Ted Williams
Ron Madden (09-14-2019)
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