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View Poll Results: Ending run differential

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  • +1 or better

    13 38.24%
  • -1 or worse

    19 55.88%
  • even

    2 5.88%
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Thread: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

  1. #16
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I don't know that it matters but if we're gonna hold beating the Marlins against the Reds, shouldn't we consider how many runs every other team has scored vs. the Marlins?
    Cardinals are -1

    Braves are +33 (in 19 games)

    Cubs are +21

    Brewers are -8

    Dodgers are +30

    Nats are +37

    Mets are +29

    Phillies are +4

    Those are the run numbers against the Marlins among all the NL playoff teams and contenders

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    REDREAD (09-13-2019)


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  4. #17
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    So you're saying that you think the Reds (at +4) are a better team then the Brewers (at -25)? Even though the Brewers are 77-68 and the Reds are 67-79?
    The Brewers are much better managed.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

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    REDREAD (09-13-2019)

  6. #18
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

    Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

    Change my mind.
    Success/failure are wins/losses. They are one and the same

  7. #19
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I don't know that it matters but if we're gonna hold beating the Marlins against the Reds, shouldn't we consider how many runs every other team has scored vs. the Marlins?
    Yea, I would not mind doing that.. for example, if we were comparing the Reds against another team, and that team was +40 vs the Pirates, then yes, that should be considered. But I am not going to do that work.. someone else can.

    IMO, when about a third of baseball teams are tanking, run differential is not as useful of a metric as it used to be.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #20
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    So you're saying that you think the Reds (at +4) are a better team then the Brewers (at -25)? Even though the Brewers are 77-68 and the Reds are 67-79?
    Yes

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Success/failure are wins/losses. They are one and the same
    You're missing my point - a team can be better than another regardless of record, that's just how statistics work. Let's say they played 1,000,000,000 games this season, who would come out ahead? My bet would be on the Reds over the Braves.
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  9. #21
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Not really. As someone else pointed out +30 of the Reds run differential came from the Marlins. They are negative against everyone else.
    The fact that teams are tanking is skewing some statistical analysis.
    I think the "run differential sniff test" assumes that there is relative parity among teams. The Marlins are a joke and has artificially inflated our run differential. If there's any "luck" factor involved, that's it, IMO.
    No, this is an easy rebuttal. The Braves got to play the Marlins more than the Reds, as did everyone in the NL East. The Reds played them as much as everyone else in the NL.
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  10. #22
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Yes

    - - - Updated - - -



    You're missing my point - a team can be better than another regardless of record, that's just how statistics work. Let's say they played 1,000,000,000 games this season, who would come out ahead? My bet would be on the Reds over the Braves.
    Who cares? They're not going to play a billion games so why even think about such nonsense? My opinion is that we'd still be behind and that our run differential would adjust to our record rather than the other way around...but we'll never settle it so what's the point?

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  12. #23
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    No, this is an easy rebuttal. The Braves got to play the Marlins more than the Reds, as did everyone in the NL East. The Reds played them as much as everyone else in the NL.
    My only points in this whole debate are/were:

    1. Run differential is basically meaningless as a stat. There are many teams (like the Reds) that can have a losing record but a + run differential. Also there have been many teams (like the Brewers) that have a winning record (the Brewers now hold a playoff spot) but a - run differential.

    2. A + run differential this season doesn't necessarily mean the Reds will have a better record next season.

    3. A huge amount of the Reds + run differential comes against the Marlins. They have a - run differential against all other MLB teams combined. I realize the Marlins are really awful. But that fact has to mean something.

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    REDREAD (09-13-2019)

  14. #24
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    No, this is an easy rebuttal. The Braves got to play the Marlins more than the Reds, as did everyone in the NL East. The Reds played them as much as everyone else in the NL.
    Ok, subtract out the Marlins and any other bad team you want from the Braves and Reds, then show the run differential.

    If anything, you are proving my point.. run differential is not as valuable as a tool as it used to be.
    I pointed out the tankers.

    You basically just pointed out the unbalanced schedule, which is a great point that I overlooked. Makes it tough to compare teams in different divisions by solely using run differential . The Braves +99 looks great, but maybe they got a lot of help from the unbalanced schedule.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  15. #25
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    That "statistical anomaly" goes away real quick when you look at the Red's results versus 2 teams: Miami and San Diego. The Reds are 11-3 against those 2 teams. Miami and San Diego have a combined record of 118-170 - a .410 winning %. The Reds are a combined +37 against them - +30 against Miami and +7 against SD. The Reds are -33 against all other MLB teams.

    All it means is the Reds were able to beat up on a couple of bad teams.
    REds are minus 21 vs the Pirates. Why cherry pick? A win vs the Marlins is worth the same as a win vs the Dodgers. Run differential is a rough estimate for how good teams are, and you can't exactly just cherry pick 148 out of the 162 games.

    BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.

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    Chip R (09-16-2019)

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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.
    In 2011 they scored 735 and allowed 720 and finished 79-83

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    REDREAD (09-16-2019)

  19. #27
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ladeda View Post
    REds are minus 21 vs the Pirates. Why cherry pick? A win vs the Marlins is worth the same as a win vs the Dodgers. Run differential is a rough estimate for how good teams are, and you can't exactly just cherry pick 148 out of the 162 games.

    BTW-- I think the Reds about a decade ago had a + run differential and a losing record. I forget which year.
    Agreed. What would the Astros run differential look like were it not for the Mariners?

  20. #28
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Except for early in the year where we had a positive run differential. The run differential has been negative and the team record has reflected this.
    It looks like the negative differential since the all star break seems to reflect the current talent level which us a below .500 team.
    We have only one starting position player that is not in bottom 1/3 at their position and that is Suarez. Aquino is maybe better but that is it.
    The bullpen is average
    The starters are above average but that does not mean as much as it use to since they only pitch 6 innings

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    REDREAD (09-16-2019)

  22. #29
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    Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    My only points in this whole debate are/were:

    1. Run differential is basically meaningless as a stat. There are many teams (like the Reds) that can have a losing record but a + run differential. Also there have been many teams (like the Brewers) that have a winning record (the Brewers now hold a playoff spot) but a - run differential.

    .
    The Reds are the only team in the majors with a positive run differential and a losing record.

    Only 2 teams in the majors have a winning record with a negative run differential and one of those ( the Phillies) are just -3.

    Thats a very strong correlation when only 3 teams buck the trend in a major league season.

    Edit: in fact, going back to 2003, there is no team who had a positive run differential who are anywhere close to the Reds pace of about 70 wins.

    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Last edited by PuffyPig; 09-14-2019 at 05:17 AM.

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    Ron Madden (09-14-2019)

  24. #30
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The Reds are the only team in the majors with a positive run differential and a losing record.

    Only 2 teams in the majors have a winning record with a negative run differential and one of those ( the Phillies) are just -3.

    That’s a very strong correlation when only 3 teams buck the trend in a major league season.

    Edit: in fact, going back to 2003, there is no team who had a positive run differential who are anywhere close to the Reds pace of about 70 wins.

    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Seasons- #Teams with Positive Run Diff and Losing Record (Teams):

    2018: 0
    2017: 1 (LA Angels: +1 Diff 80-82)
    2016: 0
    2015: 2 (Tampa: +2 Diff 80-82, Arizona +7 Diff 79-83)
    2014: 1 (NY Mets: +11 79-83)
    2013: 0
    2012: 0
    2011: 1 (Cinci: +15 79-83)
    2010: 2 (Florida: +2 80-82, NY Mets: +4 79-83)
    2009: 1 (Toronto: +27 75-87)
    2008: 0
    2007: 0
    2006: 4 (Cleveland: +88 78-84, Texas: +51 80-82, Atlanta: +44 79-83, Colorado: +1 76-86)
    2005: 2 (Toronto: +70 80-82, Texas: +7 79-83)
    2004: 2 (Baltimore: +13 78-84, Cleveland +2 80-82)
    2003: 0

    Yup. Every one of those teams were within 5 Wins of posting at least a .500 record (which is actually where the Reds are now).

    Of the teams who finished with a positive Run Differential but a losing record, the 2004 Indians, 2005 Blue Jays, 2006 Indians, 2006 Braves, 2006 Rockies, 2009 Blue Jays, 2011 Reds, and 2014 Mets produced positive Run Differentials the following season and finished with winning records. During the same time span, only two teams (2007 Arizona, 2005 San Diego) made the playoffs with a negative Run Diff. The '05 Padres a the beneficiary of an historically weak division. The 2007 Diamondbacks played .625 ball in games decided by three or fewer Runs (see: 2019 Brewers, Milwaukee).

    Only Texas reproduced a positive Run Diff and finished with a losing record both season after following up their 2005 .460 record in <3 Run games with a .463 record in 2006.

    As you note, there's a very strong correlation between Run Diff and Wins. This season, the correlation is 96.38%. And to your point, Run Differential is nowhere near "meaningless" and it doesn't somehow "adjust to the record". I have no idea why people say things like that. Run Diff is undoubtedly a driver; not a passenger.

    At this point in the game's history, the question "Does Run Differential matter?" has been answered in quite a resounding fashion. Outliers exist, but don't serve as evidence trumping the data showing us that teams with positive Run Diffs project to be more successful than teams that consistently score fewer Runs than their opponents.
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    Ron Madden (09-14-2019)


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