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Thread: Reds to pick up Galvis option

  1. #46
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    For the record, I didn't want Galvis, Iglesias, Peraza or Dietrich brought back. Go into the off-season with all the resources free and the positions open. If they end up needing to settle for somebody like Galvis, there will be guys like him available for cheap in February. Intstead they paid $5.5 Million (more than players like him will likely get) and locked up a spot, which is just one less spots available for a better player.
    To get who? Anyone available or quasi available Like Lindor, Betts are heading into FA after next year. That leaves DiDi and Grandal, and plenty of suitors.

    $5.5M isn't really more than players like Galvis will get. The Nats signed Brian Dozier to a 1 year $9M deal last year, and he was coming off a lesser season Galvis is this year. Jonathan Schoop, $7M. You may not like Galvis, but he's a better defender than both those guys. He hit a combined .260 .296 .438 .734 which was better than both those guys, and they were two of the better MI FA's last year.

    Also, It's like day frickin 1. An option picked up today doesn't mean anything more than he's on the 40 man roster. He can be dealt. He can be depth. Or he can be the starter at SS.

    In 2019, Galvis had the 7th most HR's in all MLB at SS, 16th best OPS. No one ahead of him on that list is a FA. No one ahead of him on that list is available, so far, via trade. You've clearly made a case you prefer a better player. Can you state who you think the Reds could have gotten had they not picked up his option?
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  3. #47
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Except in Cincy a guy making $5.5 Million will be the third highest paid position player on the roster and will start at least 120 games. Realistically, the Reds had two open positions - SS and whichever position between CF and 2B that Senzel doesn't play. They needed to acquire above average bats at both and hope that a couple of the others surprise or they significantly upgrade one of the other spots already locked up (I'm looking at you Tucker Barnhart). Bringing Galvis back at what I expect will be a nearly every day line-up fixture makes that much less likely.
    Well, if you assert that to be true, I suppose it must be... Your argument, in a nutshell, is basically "Don't try to be good because you'll screw it up and be bad."

    I mean, point taken. If they're penciling in a 30-year-old 1 WAR player with limited upside as an everyday starter, that's a problem regardless of his salary. I agree with you that the team needs to add an impact position player (or two), if $5.5M is the difference between getting that player or not, then that $5.5M wasn't really the difference. They weren't getting that guy to begin with. And in that situation, the problem has basically nothing to do with Galvis at $5.5M for a year.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Add two bats to the top or middle of the order.

    Galvis then hits seventh, maybe eighth.

    Winker, Suarez, Senzel, Votto is four hitters. Aquino is five hitters. Add two more - and you have seven hitters. Before you get to Galvis.

    Even subtract one from the list and Galvis hits seventh.

    The Rede are not going to scrap the entire team. They will look to add two bats. My hope is Grandal and Marte. But substitute anyone you want. It can work fine - with some bullpen additions too.
    Aquino is going to be an out machine. Votto was below average last year and is a year older. Senzel is a question mark who disappointed as a rookie and comes with health issues. They have two hitters on the roster and one was a platoon guy last year. The last thing they need is another guy to hit 7th or 8th. That's where most of the line-up should be hitting.
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    It's going to be a long off-season, and even though right now re-upping Galvis is a bit of a head-scratcher, I assume the FO isn't acting randomly. Let's at least find the corner pieces before we declare the puzzle to be unsolvable. I don't believe they're handing Galvis a starting job, but I do think they have a plan for him. The price seems a bit high, and that confuses me, but I'm willing to wait to understand.
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Galvis is hopefully the Reds reliable middle infield guy and not "the man" at either 2B or SS.
    He is decent enough with the bat and defensively that he is there so there are no extended drop offs when he's in the lineup.

    Senzel needs to be the everyday 2B once he's healthy.
    The Reds need a trade for a SS, the Reds have a 2 year window to cover until Garcia would be ready.
    ie...A trade for a youngish shortstop with a couple of seasons of eligibility would be nice... a team looking to readjust that might have a couple pieces that might help the Reds if they pick up some salary.
    Call the Colorado Rockies ask what it would take to get Trevor Story and Kyle Freeland if the Reds take a iffy contract off their hands from their RP spending spree a couple of years ago.
    They have Hampson, Rodgers, and McMahon to fill their MI and Story has 2 years of control.

    Freeland needs out of Coors especially if MLB is going to use the same baseballs in 2020. I think Derek Johnson and the analytics that Kyle Boddy is bringing in could get him closer to 2018 numbers than 2019 and give the Reds a viable LHP starting pitcher candidate and 3 yrs of control.

    Take McGees $9M get him out of Coors for a year and he may get closer to the Tampa Bay reliever.

    The Reds still need a CF, but a MI of Story, Senzel, and Galvis gives the Reds a new outlook for the immediate future.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Aquino is going to be an out machine. Votto was below average last year and is a year older. Senzel is a question mark who disappointed as a rookie and comes with health issues. They have two hitters on the roster and one was a platoon guy last year. The last thing they need is another guy to hit 7th or 8th. That's where most of the line-up should be hitting.
    I doubt the Reds see Aquino, Votto, and Senzel as seventh or eighth place hitters, as this post suggests.

    Part of the build up will include an expectation of improvement from young players. Every good team does this.

    When the Reds sign a Freddy Galvis, they don’t expect the worst from everybody else.

    They will add two very good position players - the rest will be a star (Suarez), roughly average guys (Winker, current Votto, Galvis), and prospects (Senzel, Aquino). Maybe some variation with trades. Plus good pitching and hopefully decent depth.

    IMO with some key “adds” this off-season they should have the talent to compete for a playoff spot next year.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-02-2019 at 12:21 PM.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I doubt the Reds see Aquino, Votto, and Senzel as seventh or eighth place hitters, as this post suggests.

    Part of the build up will include an expectation of improvement from young players. Every good team does this.

    When the Reds sign a Freddy Galvis, they don’t expect the worst from everybody else.

    They will add two very good position players - the rest will be a star (Suarez), roughly average guys (Winker, current Votto, Galvis), and prospects (Senzel, Aquino). Maybe some variation with trades. Plus good pitching and hopefully decent depth.

    IMO with some key “adds” this off-season they should have the talent to compete for a playoff spot next year.
    What exactly is the expectation for these guys?

    My guess (and these are far from worst case):

    Galvis .250/.290/.380/.670
    Aquino .245/.305/.440/.745
    Votto .265/.350/.415/.765
    Senzel .270/.335/.430/.765
    Barnhart .260/.325/.390/.715
    VanMeter .240/.310/.390/.700
    Suarez .280/.350/.510/.860
    Winker .290/.360/.475/.835
    Peraza .260/.285/.370/.655
    Ervin .265/.325/.400/.725
    Blandino .240/.310/.360/.670

    I think the need for offense is urgent. They shouldn't be settling for anybody right now who isn't an improvement over what is projected above.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    What exactly is the expectation for these guys?

    My guess (and these are far from worst case):

    Galvis .250/.290/.380/.670
    Aquino .245/.305/.440/.745
    Votto .265/.350/.415/.765
    Senzel .270/.335/.430/.765
    Barnhart .260/.325/.390/.715
    VanMeter .240/.310/.390/.700
    Suarez .280/.350/.510/.860
    Winker .290/.360/.475/.835
    Peraza .260/.285/.370/.655
    Ervin .265/.325/.400/.725
    Blandino .240/.310/.360/.670

    I think the need for offense is urgent. They shouldn't be settling for anybody right now who isn't an improvement over what is projected above.
    Thanks for your list of 2020 guesses. Alas, it is a straw man. Nobody disputes that the Reds need to add offense.

    The question is what is a realistic approach. I believe that is to add a couple of major bats to the existing mix. Then, on a smaller scale, add some more pitching and depth. Shed anyone who won’t be useful during the process.

    You seem to want to micromanage small upgrades throughout the lineup. I think it’s the wrong approach. Indeed you may “guess” wrong and wind up hurting the team rather than helping.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-02-2019 at 03:31 PM.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Yes, there may be some overreactions in this thread but I don’t like it. You don’t get on base, you don’t get to play for me. If we’re trying to win, he doesn’t help. If we’re trying to set an example for a good approach, he doesn’t help.
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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Thanks for your list of 2020 guesses. Alas, it is a straw man. Nobody disputes that the Reds need to add offense.

    The question is what is a realistic approach. I believe that is to add a couple of major bats to the existing mix. Then, on a smaller scale, add some more pitching and depth. Shed anyone who won’t be useful during the process.

    You seem to want to micromanage small upgrades throughout the lineup. I think it’s the wrong approach. Indeed you may “guess” wrong and wind up hurting the team rather than helping.
    I just think they need 3 well above average bats added to the line-up. If you lock up a position with Galvis, that ain't happening. This team isn't in the market for one Betts or one Rendon. They need three Winkers and those guys need a spot to play. The problem is that there are too many weak and mediocre spots in the line-up. Even 5 above average hitters (3 new ones and Winker and Suarez) still leaves a line-up with 4 below average bats every day. They need to add three and have a couple guys exceed those projections. Re-upping Galvis does nothing to accomplish that. It locks up $5.5 Million that could have gone toward a real upgrade and probably allocates way too many PAs to an out machine.

    Individually guys like Galvis, Barnhart. Aquino, even Votto aren't major problems and teams can win with those guys taking up some of those positions. Put them all in the same line-up though and you have to start wondering where the production is going to come from.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-02-2019 at 04:42 PM.
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I just think they need 3 well above average bats added to the line-up. If you lock up a position with Galvis, that ain't happening. This team isn't in the market for one Betts or one Rendon. They need three Winkers and those guys need a spot to play. The problem is that there are too many weak and mediocre spots in the line-up. Even 5 above average hitters (3 new ones and Winker and Suarez) still leaves a line-up with 4 below average bats every day. They need to add three and have a couple guys exceed those projections. Re-upping Galvis does nothing to accomplish that. It locks up $5.5 Million that could have gone toward a real upgrade and probably allocates way too many PAs to an out machine.

    Individually guys like Galvis, Barnhart. Aquino, even Votto aren't major problems and teams can win with those guys taking up some of those positions. Put them all in the same line-up though and you have to start wondering where the production is going to come from.
    It’s illogical to claim that there are only two decent hitters in the lineup, and at the same time that there’s no room to add 3 hitters if Galvis is at SS. If there are only two decent hitters, there’s six spots that can be upgraded. Adding Galvis at SS means there are five spots. Votto is the only one that is hard to move, so that still leaves 4 spots.
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  18. #57
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It’s illogical to claim that there are only two decent hitters in the lineup, and at the same time that there’s no room to add 3 hitters if Galvis is at SS. If there are only two decent hitters, there’s six spots that can be upgraded. Adding Galvis at SS means there are five spots. Votto is the only one that is hard to move, so that still leaves 4 spots.
    You'd think, but Senzel and Aquino (because they do have upside and make the minimum) are almost as much a lock as Votto IMO and Barnhart may be as well. That leaves 2B and SS. Hopefully catcher, but I'm guessing redszone (and me) are hotter on that idea than the Reds front office. Sign Galvis and that leaves just one spot.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It’s illogical to claim that there are only two decent hitters in the lineup, and at the same time that there’s no room to add 3 hitters if Galvis is at SS. If there are only two decent hitters, there’s six spots that can be upgraded. Adding Galvis at SS means there are five spots. Votto is the only one that is hard to move, so that still leaves 4 spots.
    Let’s say the Reds were to add Grandal and either Marte or Moustakas. Your lineup would be something like:

    Winker, Votto, Suarez, Grandal, Marte/Moustakas, Senzel, Aquino, Galvis, Pitcher.

    It does anticipate improvement by Senzel and Aquino, but I think that’s reasonable especially in Senzel’s case.

    Do that, add some more pitching and a couple good backups, and I think you’re in the ballpark for 2020.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-02-2019 at 05:16 PM.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    You'd think, but Senzel and Aquino (because they do have upside and make the minimum) are almost as much a lock as Votto IMO and Barnhart may be as well. That leaves 2B and SS. Hopefully catcher, but I'm guessing redszone (and me) are hotter on that idea than the Reds front office. Sign Galvis and that leaves just one spot.
    If Senzel,and Acquino are locks to be in the lineup, and are expected to be below average, then the problem is with who is making this decision.

    So either they are not locks, or they are expected to be solid offensive contributors. My guess a Senzel is a lock, and expected to improve, while Acquino is not a lock.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If Senzel,and Acquino are locks to be in the lineup, and are expected to be below average, then the problem is with who is making this decision.

    So either they are not locks, or they are expected to be solid offensive contributors. My guess a Senzel is a lock, and expected to improve, while Acquino is not a lock.
    IMO Aquino is very likely to be in RF on Opening Day. I doubt the Reds are simply going to accept some fans’ presumption that he will decline terribly. He showed too much for the Reds to just sit him on the bench or cast him off.

    Part of the rebuild is to cover some spots with young pre-arb players. They aren’t going to give up on this guy because he slumped down to an .891 OPS. Everybody has slumps. Willie Mays had slumps.

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