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Thread: Reds to pick up Galvis option

  1. #61
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If Senzel,and Acquino are locks to be in the lineup, and are expected to be below average, then the problem is with who is making this decision.

    So either they are not locks, or they are expected to be solid offensive contributors. My guess a Senzel is a lock, and expected to improve, while Acquino is not a lock.
    I think they are young cheap players who the team figures they can get value out of because they are cheap and hopefully improving with the upside to be major bargains. IMO, that is reasonable, but if that's how you are playing it, you can't be locking into one war types who are signed for cheap everywhere. Individually Barnhart, Galvis, Aquino, Senzel and whoever plays second base will probably earn their salary. The problem is collectively its only about 5 wins. So if they are going young and cheap in the OF, which is OK, then they need to aim high in the IF. Galvis isn't that. No upside there at all. That's my entire problem with this deal. 1 WAR guys to play 2B and SS are going to out there for the taking. Why lock into one?
    Last edited by mth123; 11-02-2019 at 06:01 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #62
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    I thought the Galvis decision was the most interesting one the Reds had. That decision, plus Jankowski, tells me that the Reds will be structuring the team for lefty/righty platoons. Travis gives them the additional LHH they needed in the outfield and Galvis can switch hit. Many on RZ are looking for a set lineup. I don't think it is going to happen. My guess is they either bring back Peraza or sign Iglesias. VanMeter is the other LHH; Dietrich would seem to be out. Reds would be able to field a lineup of either 6 LH bats or 7 RH bats.

    I doubt that the Reds will make the commitment required to sign a marque FA. I suspect that after the smoke clears, there will be several FA's willing to take a shorter term deal. I don't see them signing Grandal with Stephenson close. A lesser starting LHP on a short term deal (Lodolo is two years away) is the most likely to me. Also, my guess is they look for another LHP option for the pen. As for trades, they won't trade Ty Steve or Garcia. Those positions are too hard to fill. Nor do I see the rest of their prospects sufficient to land the kind of impact player RZ seems to want.

    How's that for reading a lot into so little news?

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    The Reds were definitely going to keep one of their SS options if for nothing else protection against missing on free agents and/or trade targets.

    I feel like Galvis was the right choice. If you have three candidates and none of them can get on base effectively, at least choose the one that can hit the ball over the fence.

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  6. #64
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    What exactly is the expectation for these guys?

    My guess (and these are far from worst case):

    Galvis .250/.290/.380/.670
    Aquino .245/.305/.440/.745
    Votto .265/.350/.415/.765
    Senzel .270/.335/.430/.765
    Barnhart .260/.325/.390/.715
    VanMeter .240/.310/.390/.700
    Suarez .280/.350/.510/.860
    Winker .290/.360/.475/.835
    Peraza .260/.285/.370/.655
    Ervin .265/.325/.400/.725
    Blandino .240/.310/.360/.670

    I think the need for offense is urgent. They shouldn't be settling for anybody right now who isn't an improvement over what is projected above.
    Nearly every guess has a player underperforming their career numbers. Suarez is the biggest exception and even your estimated OPS for him is much below his trend in the past two seasons.

    The offense was bad last year, but you’re pretty much predicting bare minimum performance for the vast majority of the club.

  7. #65
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Nearly every guess has a player underperforming their career numbers. Suarez is the biggest exception and even your estimated OPS for him is much below his trend in the past two seasons.

    The offense was bad last year, but you’re pretty much predicting bare minimum performance for the vast majority of the club.
    Code:
    Player	Pred.	2019	Comment
    Brnhrt	0.715	0.708	Slight improvement
    Votto	0.765	0.768	He's another year older
    JVM	0.700	0.735	New to the league hot streak
    Galvis	0.670	0.696	As a Red
    Suarez	0.930	0.860	Career Year Last year
    Winker	0.835	0.830	Slight improvement
    Senzel	0.765	0.742	Injury Concerns
    Aquino	0.745	0.891	Unrepeatable Month
    Ervin	0.797	0.725	Not a believer
    Bland	0.670	0.781	?????
    Suarez had a career year in 2019. Expecting a repeat is setting up for failure. Aquino had a career month. Same with him. The rest are right in line. I may be a little low on Blandino. Not a believer in Ervin. Galvis back in the NL will be hitting in front of the pitcher and swinging at all the junk they'll be pitching him, so back to his NL numbers from 2016, 2017, 2018 and with the Reds last year which are all below .700. If you want to raise it to .685, fine. The point is the same.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Looking quickly at OPS, Suarez has had a career year the last three straight, which can be called growth. BR war makes it every single year. Fangraphs WAR is the same with the exception of a couple of years being identical to the one before, both of which were followed by an increase. Good, young players do tend to get better every year for a bit. Sometimes kneejerk negativity isn't realistic.
    Last edited by marcshoe; 11-02-2019 at 11:58 PM.
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  9. #67
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    Looking quickly at OPS, Suarez has had a career year the last three straight, which can be called growth. Good, young players do tend to get better every year for a bit.
    You could be right. I hope he bats 1.000 with 600 HR. As far as planning what his production will be for purposes of determining what else they need to add, I'll be a little more conservative with the assumption. If a few guys outperform them, the team can be really good. Go the other route and expect best case, then the team will be left short when guys don't meet those rosy projections.

    He might have a great OBP though, because I doubt anyone will throw him anything over the plate given the guys around him. Tucker Barnhart back in the 5 hole will hit into a lot of double plays.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    You'd think, but Senzel and Aquino (because they do have upside and make the minimum) are almost as much a lock as Votto IMO and Barnhart may be as well. That leaves 2B and SS. Hopefully catcher, but I'm guessing redszone (and me) are hotter on that idea than the Reds front office. Sign Galvis and that leaves just one spot.
    This might be unpopular, but I hope part of the plan is to trade some of the guys you project as "average at best" for an upgrade in the offense. I say this because I think signing 2-3 FAs is not realistic.. Maybe the Reds sign one FA position player that is a legit upgrade.. Then they can trade basically anyone other than Suarez and the top 3 starting pitchers for another upgrade.. Senzel, Aquino, Galvis, Barnhart,etc.. all those guys are on the table.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    This might be unpopular, but I hope part of the plan is to trade some of the guys you project as "average at best" for an upgrade in the offense. I say this because I think signing 2-3 FAs is not realistic.. Maybe the Reds sign one FA position player that is a legit upgrade.. Then they can trade basically anyone other than Suarez and the top 3 starting pitchers for another upgrade.. Senzel, Aquino, Galvis, Barnhart,etc.. all those guys are on the table.
    I’m not trading Senzel or Aquino without a huge blockbuster return - that will not be forthcoming.

    I also hope Reds keep Winker and can upgrade the offense at other positions - like catcher, middle infield, or CF with Senzel moving back to the IF.

    I don’t believe this club can succeed if it doesn’t hold tightly to its top MLB- level pre-arb young talents. There aren’t many of them, those three and Castillo mostly.

    Trade from the unproven prospects if necessary, in a fair deal obviously, but not these guys.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-03-2019 at 05:48 PM.

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  14. #70
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    This might be unpopular, but I hope part of the plan is to trade some of the guys you project as "average at best" for an upgrade in the offense. I say this because I think signing 2-3 FAs is not realistic.. Maybe the Reds sign one FA position player that is a legit upgrade.. Then they can trade basically anyone other than Suarez and the top 3 starting pitchers for another upgrade.. Senzel, Aquino, Galvis, Barnhart,etc.. all those guys are on the table.
    Why would anybody trade an upgrade for any of those other guys? They aren't getting more than Salary relief for Barnhart or Galvis. They won't get that much for Dietrich or Peraza. Winker, Senzel and Aquino might bring something, but its creating another hole in the process. Everybody else is PTBNL worthy.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I’m not trading Senzel or Aquino without a huge blockbuster return - that will not be forthcoming.

    I also hope Reds keep Winker and can upgrade the offense at other positions - like catcher, middle infield, or CF with Senzel moving back to the IF.

    I don’t believe this club can succeed if it doesn’t hold tightly to its top MLB- level pre-arb young talents. There aren’t many of them, those three and Castillo mostly.

    Trade from the unproven prospects if necessary, in a fair deal obviously, but not these guys.
    It depends.. Aquino, I guess he has 6 years of control left (let's just say he does for the sake of argument).. If you could trade him for an affordable guy with 3 years of control left, but greater certainty, the Reds would have to think about doing that trade. The new guy would be more expensive, but the Reds have money to spend.. Let's just say a rebuilding team wants to unload talent and is looking for cheap guys with upside.
    It's part of going "All in".
    I Would say the same about Senzel.. He's probably one of our most marketable guys, and maybe it's not a bad idea to sort of "Sell high" on him, while he's still percieved as having huge upside.

    There are likely teams looking to go cheaper and who want to deal veterans that are arb eligible for cheaper MLB Talent.. I agree with mth, you look at this lineup, there is potential but not a lot of sure things.. I would have no problem flipping a few less expensive guys to help us win now. Obviously, not going to give them away, but I would make them available.

    It's probably going to take a trade similar to Konerko-Cameron to help push this team over the top..
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Why would anybody trade an upgrade for any of those other guys? They aren't getting more than Salary relief for Barnhart or Galvis. They won't get that much for Dietrich or Peraza. Winker, Senzel and Aquino might bring something, but its creating another hole in the process. Everybody else is PTBNL worthy.
    Yes, I meant trade one or more of the young OF for an older OF with more certainty.. This doesn't mean a 35 year old OF, but a guy in his prime with a few more years of control left to help us in this win-now window..
    Now I agree, Peraza and Barnhart probably aren't bringing in a whole lot.. but according to the press (Which I agree, is not proof), Cleveland was asking about Peraza last summer. No idea how Cleveland valued him, but there is some interest in these guys for budget-conscious teams.
    Like you said.. we need to somehow find a way to add above average bats.. I don't see how were are going to do that if we are just limited to Free Agency and trading India (and the maybe 4 other prospects that might have some value). Someone is going to have to go off the MLB roster.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  18. #73
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    What Statcast’s Newest Fielding Metric Says About Reds Infielders

    Note: Galvis’ numbers include his time with Toronto
    The infielder evaluations spring up a few interesting points. The first is the fact that Statcast measures Freddy Galvis, a late-season waiver claim by the Reds, as being an equal defender to Jose Iglesias. Iglesias is known for his flashy defense.

    Statcast’s tracking data measured him to be absolutely elite — he and Iglesias were both in the 97th percentile of all major league infielders in OAA.

    The numbers revealed here could hint at why the Reds have not been more aggressive in upgrading at shortstop this offseason
    https://www.redreporter.com/2020/1/8...-above-average

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    What Statcast’s Newest Fielding Metric Says About Reds Infielders



    https://www.redreporter.com/2020/1/8...-above-average
    Really interesting stuff there. Let’s hope the Reds are on to something.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    What Statcast’s Newest Fielding Metric Says About Reds Infielders



    https://www.redreporter.com/2020/1/8...-above-average
    Really interesting stuff there. Let’s hope the Reds are on to something.

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    Re: Reds to pick up Galvis option

    So Galvis is as good of a Defender as Iglesias according to this stat.

    With that information, I can easily say, "No thank you", to this stat.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."


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