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Thread: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

  1. #31
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think you underestimating how bad the offense is.
    Projections paint a decidedly different picture.

    That said, if they want to be a playoff contender, they do need to improve production by 60 runs or so.

    Some guys-- Senzel, Votto, Winker (through health)-- should see an offensive bump. RF should see a bump (assuming Aquino is for real).

    They need help, IMO, at 2B (or CF), C, and SS.

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  3. #32
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Projections paint a decidedly different picture.

    That said, if they want to be a playoff contender, they do need to improve production by 60 runs or so.

    Some guys-- Senzel, Votto, Winker (through health)-- should see an offensive bump. RF should see a bump (assuming Aquino is for real).

    They need help, IMO, at 2B (or CF), C, and SS.
    I think those are the positions to target as well. I don't think RF will see a bump. Aquino/Puig combined for 41 HR last year and Aquino was way over his head. I'm not as optimistic on Votto as everybody else seems to be. Winker could be the guy to take off, but I wouldn't count on it..

    As far as projections go, relying on those somewhat rosy projections is a mistake that can't be undone. If these guys come up short and the team is built assuming they'll meet them, then the offense will go belly up. Go get some guys who are less questionable to hit those numbers to rely on. Then if these guys fail, the team is covered. If those projections come true, the team will be awesome.

    Relying on those assumptions is similar to penciling Bailey, Disco and Finnegan into the rotation coming into 2018. It was an obvious mistake to count on things going right on all those guys. I think counting on these projections for the few good players on the roster will be a similar mistake.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    REDREAD (11-05-2019)

  5. #33
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Winker suffered a horrendous .286 BABIP last year, and averages closer to .330. He’s due for bounce.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base,' a certain game of ball. We wish such sights were more common among us...The game of ball is glorious..." -Walt Whitman, 1846

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    mth123 (11-04-2019)

  7. #34
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Reds should be concentrating on up-the-middle players if possible. Agree with those who have expressed that.

    Not always easy to get good bats at those positions, but that would be the most direct route to an improved ball club IMO.

  8. #35
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    A team with deep pockets is going to give him 10-15 on a one year make good deal. No need to match that.

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  9. #36
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Joseph View Post
    A team with deep pockets is going to give him 10-15 on a one year make good deal. No need to match that.
    If that happens, Wood should drop to his knees and give thanks to the higher power of his choice, because that would be a true miracle. I don't think he'll get $5 Million guaranteed. He might be able to make $15 Million with incentives.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Old school 1983 (11-04-2019)

  11. #37
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think those are the positions to target as well. I don't think RF will see a bump. Aquino/Puig combined for 41 HR last year and Aquino was way over his head. I'm not as optimistic on Votto as everybody else seems to be. Winker could be the guy to take off, but I wouldn't count on it..

    As far as projections go, relying on those somewhat rosy projections is a mistake that can't be undone. If these guys come up short and the team is built assuming they'll meet them, then the offense will go belly up. Go get some guys who are less questionable to hit those numbers to rely on. Then if these guys fail, the team is covered. If those projections come true, the team will be awesome.

    Relying on those assumptions is similar to penciling Bailey, Disco and Finnegan into the rotation coming into 2018. It was an obvious mistake to count on things going right on all those guys. I think counting on these projections for the few good players on the roster will be a similar mistake.
    I think you fundamentally misunderstand projections.

  12. #38
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I think you fundamentally misunderstand projections.
    Nope. The ones on Baseball reference are statistical based on big league stats. Aquino's fluke month is going to inflate his projection. I'd put more stock into Zips or some of the others, but there is no confidence at all in a projection of Aquino based on two months in the big leagues, one of which was such a statistical outlier, he set the record for fastest to certain HR marks every time he hit one.

    Votto's projections are influenced the other way. He's had a long and fabulous career but his projections are influenced by some historical stats that were accumulated by a player who no longer exists. IMO, Votto's problems last year were due to some back issues he was feeling early in the year. He got a little better toward the end of the year, but he's a year older and has another year of mileage on him. Some other issue will pop-up to drag him down. It's just part of aging. I just wouldn't trust any prediction that has him outperforming 2019. I hope he does, but I wouldn't make the assumption he will when planning my roster.

    The Reds best bet for more offense, outside of the right acquisitions, is probably improvement from Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. I think Senzel has a good chance to obliterate the projections they have published for him, but given how he performed as a rookie and the nature of his injury, its once again something I wouldn't count on. Winker is the best bet to outperform the numbers that the show for him, but I already expect him to be good. The Reds biggest problem isn't that the good players need to be better, it's that the line-up has too many weak spots. To fix that, they need to make those questionable guys - Aquno, Senzel and Votto, the weakest guys in the line-up by getting better players at other spots.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  13. #39
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nope. The ones on Baseball reference are statistical based on big league stats. Aquino's fluke month is going to inflate his projection. I'd put more stock into Zips or some of the others, but there is no confidence at all in a projection of Aquino based on two months in the big leagues, one of which was such a statistical outlier, he set the record for fastest to certain HR marks every time he hit one.

    Votto's projections are influenced the other way. He's had a long and fabulous career but his projections are influenced by some historical stats that were accumulated by a player who no longer exists. IMO, Votto's problems last year were due to some back issues he was feeling early in the year. He got a little better toward the end of the year, but he's a year older and has another year of mileage on him. Some other issue will pop-up to drag him down. It's just part of aging. I just wouldn't trust any prediction that has him outperforming 2019. I hope he does, but I wouldn't make the assumption he will when planning my roster.

    The Reds best bet for more offense, outside of the right acquisitions, is probably improvement from Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. I think Senzel has a good chance to obliterate the projections they have published for him, but given how he performed as a rookie and the nature of his injury, its once again something I wouldn't count on. Winker is the best bet to outperform the numbers that the show for him, but I already expect him to be good. The Reds biggest problem isn't that the good players need to be better, it's that the line-up has too many weak spots. To fix that, they need to make those questionable guys - Aquno, Senzel and Votto, the weakest guys in the line-up by getting better players at other spots.
    Baseball-Reference uses Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. It's often proven quite successful as a ballpark estimator, on par or slightly superior to ZiPS.

  14. #40
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Baseball-Reference uses Tom Tango's Marcel projection system. It's often proven quite successful as a ballpark estimator, on par or slightly superior to ZiPS.
    And if you read up on Marcel, it has the exact flaws I described. It uses three years of big league data and is simple math. That may work for a player in the middle of their prime, but players at the beginning of their career (Aquino and Senzel) are going to be projected based on small samples and players on the decline like Votto will be inflated by his older, younger seasons. I generally am OK with most of the projections, but the Reds have very few players who project to be above average and two who do are susceptible to the weakness of this system.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  15. #41
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And if you read up on Marcel, it has the exact flaws I described.
    Again, Marcel is as accurate as pretty much every other projection system. Does it has flaws? Of course-- it's a projection.

    But to dismiss it as a WAG in favor of another projection system that's proven to be less accurate (or, worse, your own) seems unnecessarily pessimistic.

  16. #42
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, Marcel is as accurate as pretty much every other projection system. Does it has flaws? Of course-- it's a projection.

    But to dismiss it as a WAG in favor of another projection system that's proven to be less accurate (or, worse, your own) seems unnecessarily pessimistic.
    The key player is Aquino. He's projected with a really high OPS. If he hits that, the Reds offensive woes are much less. Look at the reliability factor attached to him. 48% is really low. Not something you should count on IMO. I think most agree the Reds need a couple of bats, but if Aquino busts (or more likely becomes the OF version of Freddy Galvis with pretty solid power and trouble getting on base), well, then the Reds need another bat. The plan should be to go get three from the get go IMO.

    When it comes to players like Aquino with only two months of big league stats, it basically is a WAG. The reliability factor basically is admitting that.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-04-2019 at 10:31 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    REDREAD (11-05-2019)

  18. #43
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    An average offense and superior pitching is a formula that has worked repeatedly in MLB.

    Reds are already half way there.

    Add two good hitters to the first six in the Reds lineup and they will be fine, maybe better than fine.
    I think if the Reds want to focus on the run prevention side, they need to add an above average defensive CF (the in house guys do not cut it), a better 5th starter (Mahle is too risky) and 2-3 good/great bullpen arms (+ take Inglesis out of closer role ).
    That would actually move the needle quite a bit.
    Would it be enough to win the wildcard? Probably not, but it would mean less offense needs to be added.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  19. #44
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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Wood has signed a 1 year, $4M deal with the Dodgers.

    Kyle Farmer is the last piece of last year's trade to still be with the Reds.

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    REDREAD (01-13-2020)

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    Re: Thoughts on signing Alex Wood?

    Quote Originally Posted by NebraskaRed View Post
    Wood has signed a 1 year, $4M deal with the Dodgers.

    Kyle Farmer is the last piece of last year's trade to still be with the Reds.
    Not if you extend the trade to include getting Bauer for Puig.

    I'm still hoping the Reds can resign Puig and deal a couple of guys to help the IF and bullpen.

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    Benihana (01-13-2020)


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