Reds Interested in Ozuna Per Heyman

[REDREAD]

He's probably not going to be a league average bat as a full time player. Neither is Senzel, Aquino or Votto. I hope they find some offense some place. The one guy in the OF who probably is going to be better than league average will be the one pushed aside in this plan. I like the Shogo signing and think he'll make a really solid 400 PA outfielder, but this is a mix and match group of players. It would be a better mix and match group by bringing Puig back and moving Aquino IMO, but its still a mix and match group. Castellanos is an every day player if they could nab him somehow. Other than that, platoon Winker and Ervin in LF and mix and match the others in CF and RF.

I agree with your concerns.. Shogo is not a sure thing.
But honestly, I think a lot of his value will come from the glove.
If he's a flea with good (doesn't have to be great) OB and solid defense in CF, that's a very valuable complimentary starting player (and is being paid as such)
I agree with you, it's not likely that Shogo fixes the offense, but Senzel definitely wasn't the answer either.

[REDREAD]

I kind of wonder if the stench of losing is hurting Cincy. I mean, they are already at somewhat of a disadvantage just because it's Cincy, but the losing probably hurts on top of it.

Yep, someone like Ozuna has to be thinking.. if I sign a 3 year deal with Cincy, I'm going to be dumped for prospects at some point.

Although I suspect that the Reds didn't offer him 18 million per year too. I am guessing he wanted to max out his salary, and I don't blame for taking 18 million for one year.. Great deal for him and Atlanta.

[mth123]

You giving up on Aquino already?

Not really giving up, but my expectations are pretty low. I'm thinking .225/.285/.425/.710 or something along those lines. He has lots of upside and if this was the 2018 reds, I'd say start him 150 times. But this is the trying to win Reds and I'd rather have unspectacular certainty than him.

[mth123]

I agree with your concerns.. Shogo is not a sure thing.
But honestly, I think a lot of his value will come from the glove.
If he's a flea with good (doesn't have to be great) OB and solid defense in CF, that's a very valuable complimentary starting player (and is being paid as such)
I agree with you, it's not likely that Shogo fixes the offense, but Senzel definitely wasn't the answer either.

I'm not expecting a flea. I'm expecting something along the lines of 1990 Billy Hatcher. World Series heroics aside, Hatcher was 8% below league average that year. He was a solid player, but on a team desperate for offense, he's more of the below average same.

I think if you mix and match these guys against the right match-ups, you can get above average production from them as a group. I think anyone playing 150 games will be below average.

[M2]

I agree with your concerns.. Shogo is not a sure thing.
But honestly, I think a lot of his value will come from the glove.
If he's a flea with good (doesn't have to be great) OB and solid defense in CF, that's a very valuable complimentary starting player (and is being paid as such)
I agree with you, it's not likely that Shogo fixes the offense, but Senzel definitely wasn't the answer either.

Nothing about his hitting profile indicates he'll be a flea.

[mth123]

Nothing about his hitting profile indicates he'll be a flea.

I don't think he's a flea either, but he's not going to be a big bat that improves the team's run scoring to the degree they need. He's probably an overall better player than some of the alternatives, but he's not going to be a big improvement to the team's runs scored total. He's probably a .750 OPS type. ZIPS has him in that range and its closer to what I expect out of him. That's basically the same range they got from Senzel out there last year.

Looking at where this team has changed, we see a new middle IF of Moustakas/Galvis. Offensively that should be around a 30 run improvement over last years MI menagerie. In RF, its unclear who it will be, but I doubt that they will match what they got from the combination of Puig and Aquino last year. Those two paired to provide 629 PAs with roughly a .255 BA with 41 HR and 108 RBI. The combined BA was around .255 with an OBP of around .310 and a slugging percentage in the low .500s. I don't see improvement on those numbers and I actually expect quite a bit of drop in production from that.

They have made more strides on the run prevention side with Shogo likely a better defender than any of last year's OF and hopefully Bauer and Miley upgrading from what the reds got out of two rotation spots last year. They've also subtracted a lot of bad innings from Hernandez, Hughes, Peralta, Romano, Wood, Duke, Alaniz and Mella, but even with those improvements, is it realistic to expect the team to allow many fewer runs than it did last year? They were fourth best in the league in runs allowed last year. In their park, I don't see that number going a lot lower. For this team to improve, it needs to add runs on offense and I just don't see them as having added enough to get above the below average level. They've improved some with Moose, but they aren't moving even to the middle of the pack in runs scored with this group. Its around a .500 team now. They need more offense to contend.

[Griffey012]

I'm not expecting a flea. I'm expecting something along the lines of 1990 Billy Hatcher. World Series heroics aside, Hatcher was 8% below league average that year. He was a solid player, but on a team desperate for offense, he's more of the below average same.

I think if you mix and match these guys against the right match-ups, you can get above average production from them as a group. I think anyone playing 150 games will be below average.

I'd bet one of the guys ends up playing 150 games and is above average. Who that ends up being is the real question. It could be Shogo, Senzel, or Aquino.

[REDREAD]

I'm not expecting a flea. I'm expecting something along the lines of 1990 Billy Hatcher. World Series heroics aside, Hatcher was 8% below league average that year. He was a solid player, but on a team desperate for offense, he's more of the below average same.

I think if you mix and match these guys against the right match-ups, you can get above average production from them as a group. I think anyone playing 150 games will be below average.

Agreed. I meant "flea" in a positive way.. good OBP, good speed, good defense.
Maybe he will get some GAB aided power too.

- - - Updated - - -

Nothing about his hitting profile indicates he'll be a flea.

Sorry, "flea" was meant in a positive way, not an insult.

[InsaneinthBrame]

Not really giving up, but my expectations are pretty low. I'm thinking .225/.285/.425/.710 or something along those lines. He has lots of upside and if this was the 2018 reds, I'd say start him 150 times. But this is the trying to win Reds and I'd rather have unspectacular certainty than him.

Even with that slash line he would be an offensive force. He will hit at least 30 hrs and drive in 100 plus runs.

He would have to be very unlucky to slash that line. He has power and speed so he should have a normal babip. He should continue to walk around 7 percent. His k rate should be around 26 to 28 percent(same as Suarez). Plus his iso should be higher than .200. So at worst I would see 240/300/480 for a 780 ops but has the potential to put up numbers like Suarez. If you look at both career path as hitters there are some nice similarities that I think bode well for Aquino.
I think his floor is 2016 2017 Adam Duval

[GAC]

Wait till ST, when no one has signed Puig, and sign him to minor league deal (aka Iglesias)(LOL)

[mth123]

Even with that slash line he would be an offensive force. He will hit at least 30 hrs and drive in 100 plus runs.

He would have to be very unlucky to slash that line. He has power and speed so he should have a normal babip. He should continue to walk around 7 percent. His k rate should be around 26 to 28 percent(same as Suarez). Plus his iso should be higher than .200. So at worst I would see 240/300/480 for a 780 ops but has the potential to put up numbers like Suarez. If you look at both career path as hitters there are some nice similarities that I think bode well for Aquino.
I think his floor is 2016 2017 Adam Duval

I guess I just don't think those rates will hold when big league pitchers figure him out. I'm expecting a K rate closer to 35% or higher. A couple hundred Ks in 600 PAS will suppress all of his numbers. I don't think he'll walk as much as 7% either. I do think he'll hit 30 HRs if he plays full-time. I don't think that alone makes him productive. I can't see even 80 RBI.

Looking at his AA numbers in 949 PAs .227/.293/.421/.714.

[MikeS21]

Yep, someone like Ozuna has to be thinking.. if I sign a 3 year deal with Cincy, I'm going to be dumped for prospects at some point.

I think that most free agents would think the same thing signing with any team. Not just the Reds.

That’s the reality of baseball economics today. Free agent contracts get flipped for prospects because no team wants to lose a player without getting something in return. The same goes for players nearing the end of team control and nearing free agency. And fans become extremely critical when teams don’t get some value back instead of simply letting the players walk.

[757690]

I guess I just don't think those rates will hold when big league pitchers figure him out. I'm expecting a K rate closer to 35% or higher. A couple hundred Ks in 600 PAS will suppress all of his numbers. I don't think he'll walk as much as 7% either. I do think he'll hit 30 HRs if he plays full-time. I don't think that alone makes him productive. I can't see even 80 RBI.

Looking at his AA numbers in 949 PAs .227/.293/.421/.714.

I understand the pessimism, but Aquino’s AA numbers are not that meaningful. He radically changed his stance and approach in AAA last year and it worked wonders.

He has shown he can adapt and adjust, which is why I am more optimistic about him. His first week in the majors was terrible. Some here were wondering why he was even called up. Then he adjusted, and went on a tear like no one has ever seen. The pitched adjusted to him, he slumped, then adjusted back and has a nice run in his final two weeks.

My guess is that he will keep adjusting and adapting, and keep getting better.

[JFLegal]

if aquino adjusts so fast, why did it take him until he was 25 to reach the major leagues? he just learned how to adjust in 2019?

[marcshoe]

if aquino adjusts so fast, why did it take him until he was 25 to reach the major leagues? he just learned how to adjust in 2019?

Yes, that's the way life works, not just baseball. If you're lucky, something clicks and you finally figure it out. Significant change is not always incremental.