Reds Interested in Ozuna Per Heyman

[Kc61]

Looks like Reds are out on Marcell Ozuna. KMOX website quotes a Dominican newspaper report:

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the top of Marcell Ozuna's list of destinations in 2020 and beyond, according to a report from a Dominican TV station. St. Louis' left fielder for the past two seasons spoke to Neftalí Ruiz of CDN37 and said he's narrowed his decision down to just the Cardinal or Texas Rangers.

https://kmox.radio.com/articles/news...with-cardinals

I thought Castellanos was a near lock to join Texas. Yet that hasn’t happened and reportedly now Texas still is on Ozuna.

Didn’t we also hear once that Ozuna was going to the White Sox?

Honestly, I wouldn’t take any of this as set in stone.

[TRF]

I personally don't like subjective stats, especially when the community cannot even agree on which version to use. I get that there is a certain amount of luck involved, park factors and outlier seasons.

But let's look at the similarities. Both played the bulk of their careers in pitcher's parks in what could be considered pitcher friendly divisions. They are the same age, debuting in the same year. Prior to 2017, Ozuna never topped a .773 OPS. After 2017 he was at .758 and .800. Puig has reached an .820 or higher OPS 4 times, his 5th best OPS season would better Ozuna's 3rd best by 12 points. The reason I can see Puig getting an .815 OPS or higher in 2020 is simply because he's almost always better than that. Ozuna? No. He's almost always worse. But the projections says he's going to jump 44 points of OPS to .844 when he's been over .800 once in his career.

The ball may not even be the same next year because of all the outrage and MLB admitting it was a little different. For the life of me, I cannot see why anyone would prefer Ozuna, loss of draft pick over FA Puig.

That said, I'd only choose Puig if the choive was him or Ozuna. If it is Puig vs a platoon of Winker/Ervin or even Winker/Senzel I'd take the platoon. I think platooning Senzel reduces his value to the Reds though.

[JCM11]

I imagine that the projections like Ozuna next year because of his super low BAbip last season despite a very good line drive rate. If his BAbip was at his career norms last year he would've OPS'd 850+.

[Griffey012]

I personally don't like subjective stats, especially when the community cannot even agree on which version to use. I get that there is a certain amount of luck involved, park factors and outlier seasons.

But let's look at the similarities. Both played the bulk of their careers in pitcher's parks in what could be considered pitcher friendly divisions. They are the same age, debuting in the same year. Prior to 2017, Ozuna never topped a .773 OPS. After 2017 he was at .758 and .800. Puig has reached an .820 or higher OPS 4 times, his 5th best OPS season would better Ozuna's 3rd best by 12 points. The reason I can see Puig getting an .815 OPS or higher in 2020 is simply because he's almost always better than that. Ozuna? No. He's almost always worse. But the projections says he's going to jump 44 points of OPS to .844 when he's been over .800 once in his career.

The ball may not even be the same next year because of all the outrage and MLB admitting it was a little different. For the life of me, I cannot see why anyone would prefer Ozuna, loss of draft pick over FA Puig.

That said, I'd only choose Puig if the choive was him or Ozuna. If it is Puig vs a platoon of Winker/Ervin or even Winker/Senzel I'd take the platoon. I think platooning Senzel reduces his value to the Reds though.

Which hitter would you rather have?

Dansby Swanson or Josh Bell

I would assume the answer is Bell. Based on Statcast metrics, Ozuna hit the ball like Bell while Puig hit the ball like Swanson. It probably seems like a stretch at first glance but lets look closer:

Bell/Ozuna
Launch Angle: 13.0/13.5
Avg Exit Velo: 92.3/91.8
Hard hit %: 47.1/49.2
Brls/PA:8.6/8.6
xWOBA: .381/.382
xBA:.283/.288
xSLG:.556/.548

Puig/Ozuna:
Launch Angle: 14.2/13.5
Avg Exit Velo: 89.9/91.8
Hard hit %: 39.1/49.2
Brls/PA:6.7/8.6
xWOBA: .334/.382
xBA:.266/.288
xSLG:.464/.548

Ozuna's expected OPS based on his batted ball profile was roughly .925 via a .288/.378/.548 slash line. That is a big bat. Meanwhile Puig was pretty much on par with his expectations and came in at a .791 OPS.

[Nick O]

Sounds like the Reds are out:

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
Free agent OF Marcell Ozuna tells
@hgomez27
: ‘St. Louis is on the hunt. We will see which one of the two will be (Cardinals/Rangers). I’ve been in St. Louis and I like the city. My first option will be St. Louis. If they step up I will stay, if not I will find a new home."

[SomeCallMeTim]

Which hitter would you rather have?

Dansby Swanson or Josh Bell

I would assume the answer is Bell. Based on Statcast metrics, Ozuna hit the ball like Bell while Puig hit the ball like Swanson. It probably seems like a stretch at first glance but lets look closer:

Bell/Ozuna
Launch Angle: 13.0/13.5
Avg Exit Velo: 92.3/91.8
Hard hit %: 47.1/49.2
Brls/PA:8.6/8.6
xWOBA: .381/.382
xBA:.283/.288
xSLG:.556/.548

Puig/Ozuna:
Launch Angle: 14.2/13.5
Avg Exit Velo: 89.9/91.8
Hard hit %: 39.1/49.2
Brls/PA:6.7/8.6
xWOBA: .334/.382
xBA:.266/.288
xSLG:.464/.548

Ozuna's expected OPS based on his batted ball profile was roughly .925 via a .288/.378/.548 slash line. That is a big bat. Meanwhile Puig was pretty much on par with his expectations and came in at a .791 OPS.

You know what these numbers add up to for me: Give Aquino a chance.

[corkedbat]

I personally don't like subjective stats, especially when the community cannot even agree on which version to use. I get that there is a certain amount of luck involved, park factors and outlier seasons.

But let's look at the similarities. Both played the bulk of their careers in pitcher's parks in what could be considered pitcher friendly divisions. They are the same age, debuting in the same year. Prior to 2017, Ozuna never topped a .773 OPS. After 2017 he was at .758 and .800. Puig has reached an .820 or higher OPS 4 times, his 5th best OPS season would better Ozuna's 3rd best by 12 points. The reason I can see Puig getting an .815 OPS or higher in 2020 is simply because he's almost always better than that. Ozuna? No. He's almost always worse. But the projections says he's going to jump 44 points of OPS to .844 when he's been over .800 once in his career.

The ball may not even be the same next year because of all the outrage and MLB admitting it was a little different. For the life of me, I cannot see why anyone would prefer Ozuna, loss of draft pick over FA Puig.

That said, I'd only choose Puig if the choive was him or Ozuna. If it is Puig vs a platoon of Winker/Ervin or even Winker/Senzel I'd take the platoon. I think platooning Senzel reduces his value to the Reds though.

Don't think it would be as much a straight platoon as a 4 or 5 man OF rotation if we're talking about an OF group of maybe Shogo, Senzel, Winker, Aquino & Ervin.

[Ron Madden]

Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Rival exec makes interesting point: Would be smart for #STLCards to sign Castellanos without losing draft pick, then gain pick once Ozuna goes elsewhere. Castellanos was ineligible for qualifying offer because he was traded during season. STL gave Ozuna QO, tying him to pick.

[UPRedsFan]

Sounds like the Reds are out:

Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
Free agent OF Marcell Ozuna tells
@hgomez27
: ‘St. Louis is on the hunt. We will see which one of the two will be (Cardinals/Rangers). I’ve been in St. Louis and I like the city. My first option will be St. Louis. If they step up I will stay, if not I will find a new home."

I'm not sad over this. To me, neither he or Puig are a real exciting upgrade for the outfield (unless it's a prequel to a trade of an outfielder that upgrades the team elsewhere).

[OGB]

Once I realized the Reds would lose the QO pick, I lost all interest in Ozuna. Castellanos or bust.

[JFLegal]

i just hope if the cardinals re-sign ozuna, they overpay for him. something like $110 million over 5 years would be an overpay in my opinion.

[dougdirt]

Once I realized the Reds would lose the QO pick, I lost all interest in Ozuna. Castellanos or bust.

The draft pick they would lose is one that has a lifetime value of like 2 WAR. While technically not entirely useless, letting the expected value of a crappy bench player from signing a proven, quality big leaguer is a world that I don't want to live in.

[Mitri]

i just hope if the cardinals re-sign ozuna, they overpay for him. something like $110 million over 5 years would be an overpay in my opinion.

Ozuna’s not getting 5 years. I think he’ll get three, but the Cast-Ozuna-Puig market is cooling. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him only get 2.

[OGB]

The draft pick they would lose is one that has a lifetime value of like 2 WAR. While technically not entirely useless, letting the expected value of a crappy bench player from signing a proven, quality big leaguer is a world that I don't want to live in.

I already don't prefer signing Ozuna. Signing Ozuna comes with a price that other FAs don't cost.
The Reds have a mediocre farm system. Drafting and developing talent is what will keep this team competitive over the long term.
Why not sign the better hitter and keep the draft pick that would otherwise go to your division rival?

[Kc61]

Reds would lose their third highest pick for signing Ozuna. Their Comp B selection, fifth pick after the second round.

The Cards would not receive Reds lost pick. Cards receive a comp pick based on its own status as a non-luxury tax payer/non-revenue share recipient.

If Reds are willing to pay for an Ozuna contract I can’t see any of this standing in the way.

The Reds may prefer Ozuna to Castellanos who is reputedly a poor defender. Reds have said one goal is better OF defense.