Reds Interested in Ozuna Per Heyman

[757690]

if aquino adjusts so fast, why did it take him until he was 25 to reach the major leagues? he just learned how to adjust in 2019?

It looks like he’s been adjusting his entire professional career..

Here are his OPS’s In the minors by year.

.577
.557
.789
.919
.690
.846
.678
.744
.992

[JCM11]

Technically Aquino debuted at age 24 in September 2018. Having a tall hitter take a little longer to figure out his swing doesn't seem that out of the ordinary to me. I'm sure MLB history is full of productive players that had their first significant playing time at 25 or older. Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart are two examples right off the top of my head.

[mth123]

I hope you guys are right about Aquino, but I'm just not trusting of his 2019 numbers. These drastic swing adjustments, and his stance is pretty drastic, get countered by adjusting big league pitchers. Looking at his minor league numbers, he had a lot more down years than good ones and always a big down year after a good one. We'll see, but he's an upside play for a rebuilding team. A team trying to win needs steady, more predictable production. The Reds don't really have that in more than three of four guys. Of all the reds many question marks, I have him as the least likely to be league average.

[JFLegal]

I hope you guys are right about Aquino, but I'm just not trusting of his 2019 numbers. These drastic swing adjustments, and his stance is pretty drastic, get countered by adjusting big league pitchers. Looking at his minor league numbers, he had a lot more down years than good ones and always a big down year after a good one. We'll see, but he's an upside play for a rebuilding team. A team trying to win needs steady, more predictable production. The Reds don't really have that in more than three of four guys. Of all the reds many question marks, I have him as the least likely to be league average.

yeah, i hope i'm wrong, but it has one-month fluke written all over it. jmo. for a 25-year-old rookie no less. and it's not like aquino was a 25-year-old rookie who played college ball. he was signed out of the dominican at the age of 17. maybe everything just clicked for him last year. i certainly hope it did. would love to look back on this thread and eat a heaping portion of crow.

[JCM11]

I'll admit Aquino is a big time wild card, but it takes an incredible amount of talent to put up the kind of first month he did. My expectation is that he'll be a poor man's Aaron Judge which would mean an OPS around .800 and pretty good defense in RF. Anything more than that would be great.

[InsaneinthBrame]

if aquino adjusts so fast, why did it take him until he was 25 to reach the major leagues? he just learned how to adjust in 2019?

I am not sure about adjusting fast but he has shown growth in hitting skill. He has increased in game power he has also increased his walk rates and at higher levels of the minors. A lot of hitters start to blossom once they start hitting their prime years and Aquino is hitting his prime years. Look at guys like Suarez, Edwin Encarcion, Didi Gregorious Justin Turner to name a few guys reds fans are familiar with.
He did struggle when he first hit AA but was much better in year two.

[InsaneinthBrame]

I guess I just don't think those rates will hold when big league pitchers figure him out. I'm expecting a K rate closer to 35% or higher. A couple hundred Ks in 600 PAS will suppress all of his numbers. I don't think he'll walk as much as 7% either. I do think he'll hit 30 HRs if he plays full-time. I don't think that alone makes him productive. I can't see even 80 RBI.

Looking at his AA numbers in 949 PAs .227/.293/.421/.714.

Why do you say 35 percent he has not been that type of swing and miss guy before. Last year in AAA and MLB was only 25 and year before 25 in AA. You used his AA numbers and he hit only 37 hrs in those 949 pa. And you know at his now mature physical form he will have way more hrs than that but I admit anything is possible saw Schebler completely implode or Peraza choke last year.

[americanoutlaw1]

One thing about Aquino this year are lots of the underlying numbers remained remarkably consistent from AÀA to the bigs. His walk rate, strikeout rate, line drives, fly balls, ground balls all were basically identical. His iso remained well above 300. His BABIP dipped about 60 points, but I think that can be attributed to MLB pitching, defense and scouting reports. He continued ripping the ball, and it's not like there was no data on him... Anyone with a full time job and an MILB subscription could give you a decent scouting report on the guy before he stepped foot in a MLB batter's box in 2019 so it's not like there was no Intel on the guy... I think that the power is so real that there may be be enough optimism to believe his hit tool and eye should be just good enough to find out. This is also coming from someone who never believed in his prospect helium from Dayton or any season before 2019. And some of those balls he hit... There is some real thunder in that bat.

[GAC]

So right now, we're looking at an OF (L-R) of Winker, Senzel, and "wild card" Aquino. Most pretty comfortable with that? I don't think the Reds, and especially Bell, are. Not if one looks at Bell's approach, which involves analytics (match-ups) and giving players days off. Then there is the injury factor, which hit Winker and Senzel pretty good last year. What 'cha got on the bench?

Besides the gamble that is already involved, IMO, they need to strengthen this area of their bench to support Bell's approach.

[mth123]

Why do you say 35 percent he has not been that type of swing and miss guy before. Last year in AAA and MLB was only 25 and year before 25 in AA. You used his AA numbers and he hit only 37 hrs in those 949 pa. And you know at his now mature physical form he will have way more hrs than that but I admit anything is possible saw Schebler completely implode or Peraza choke last year.

I hope you are right, but Aquino has been up and down his entire career. He adjusts, it's easily countered by even minor league pitchers and his OPS takes a .200 point drop. Last year was another up year. He made an unorthodox adjustment that has him with a crazy unorthodox stance that big league pitchers will find a way to counter. I just think last year is another point on the roller coaster and this year the pitchers will adjust and he'll drop back down like he always has. In the big leagues, I think the fall will be worse.

[mth123]

So right now, we're looking at an OF (L-R) of Winker, Senzel, and "wild card" Aquino. Most pretty comfortable with that? I don't think the Reds, and especially Bell, are. Not if one looks at Bell's approach, which involves analytics (match-ups) and giving players days off. Then there is the injury factor, which hit Winker and Senzel pretty good last year. What 'cha got on the bench?

Besides the gamble that is already involved, IMO, they need to strengthen this area of their bench to support Bell's approach.

Akiyama. I think mix and match is exactly what we'll get. Winker and Ervin platoon in LF, Shogo, Senzel and Aquino share CF and RF. Ervin get 200 to 250 PAs as the RH half of a platoon, the others all end up in the 450 range - maybe more if Senzel gets some time in the IF.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Akiyama. I think mix and match is exactly what we'll get. Winker and Ervin platoon in LF, Shogo, Senzel and Aquino share CF and RF. Ervin get 200 to 250 PAs as the RH half of a platoon, the others all end up in the 450 range - maybe more if Senzel gets some time in the IF.

This is my assumption.

Mix and match based on health, hot streaks, and handedness.

Already, Aquino or Senzel may be the odd man out in terms of ABs and a regular spot.

If they add Castellanos, you know he's going to start. Ditto Akiyama.

So what happens in the other OF spot?

I'd argue the combination of Winker and Ervin is tailor-made for LF.

That leaves both Aquino and Senzel looking for regular gigs elsewhere.

As a utility guy, Senzel makes lots of sense.

Aquino as a fourth OF?

Perhaps.

[Sea Ray]

It seems that once Shogun was signed, the Reds called the outfield done.
I am guessing Shogun was their primary target all along, and Ozuna was plan B.

I agree so I disagree with you that after signing Shogun the Reds should have also signed Ozuna. An OF of Shogun, Senzel, Aquino, Winker and Ervin is plenty full on a team that'll have at most, 6 bench players. If we're going to spend $18 mill, it needs to be a position of need, SS or C...and possibly a true CF. We don't need another corner OFer.

[Sea Ray]

So right now, we're looking at an OF (L-R) of Winker, Senzel, and "wild card" Aquino. Most pretty comfortable with that? I don't think the Reds, and especially Bell, are. Not if one looks at Bell's approach, which involves analytics (match-ups) and giving players days off. Then there is the injury factor, which hit Winker and Senzel pretty good last year. What 'cha got on the bench?

Besides the gamble that is already involved, IMO, they need to strengthen this area of their bench to support Bell's approach.

What happened to Shogo Akiyama? I get forgetting Ervin but how do you forget that signing? He'll make more dough than the other 4 combined

[M2]

This is my assumption.

Mix and match based on health, hot streaks, and handedness.

Already, Aquino or Senzel may be the odd man out in terms of ABs and a regular spot.

If they add Castellanos, you know he's going to start. Ditto Akiyama.

So what happens in the other OF spot?

I'd argue the combination of Winker and Ervin is tailor-made for LF.

That leaves both Aquino and Senzel looking for regular gigs elsewhere.

As a utility guy, Senzel makes lots of sense.

Aquino as a fourth OF?

Perhaps.

My guess is Castellanos would play LF. A) Because he's wretched in RF. B) Because Castellanos and Winker in the same OF would be terrifying. So I'm thinking Winker is the one who takes the haircut if Castellanos signs. Shogo and Senzel would be the primaries in CF/RF.