Reds Interested in Ozuna Per Heyman

[Randymack]

Ozuna is a waste of money, his defensive liabilities are legendary. He couldn't catch leprosy in a leprosorium.
Nicholas Castellanos is equally as bad, they can hit, but don't insult this fanbase and bring them here for big dollars if they legitimately can't play the field.

[foster15]

Wow, do I disagree.

First off, a good lineup has balance. Second, Morgan, Griffey, Rose and Geronimo all brought LH/SH bats to the BRM (with Driessen off the bench). O'Neill, Morris and a bench full of LH bats were critical elements of the 1990 Reds. Third, BA and OB are where the Reds were weakest on offense. Shopping for RH pop misses the point, and 149 of their 227 HR (65.6%) came from RHBs last season.

I never said we didn't need balance, just not in our power hitters. Morgan, Rose, Geronimo and Griffey were not known as power hitters. Driessen either. Morgan on a great year got you about 26 or so. But it was all about the Right handed power of May/Foster Bench and Perez.

Who cares what side of the plate the home runs come from, as long as they come?

[mth123]

The Reds need to spend where they'd get the most upgrade for their money. Grandal, Gregorious should be the big ticket items, then a lower cost, upside/bounceback play at 2B or CF. The goal should be a line-up with only two below average spots including the pitcher. With Aquino, Votto and Senzel all question marks going in, that means they need above average or at least potentially above average at the other spots. They simply can't afford to go in with guys we know will be below average with the likelihood that at least one of Aquino, Senzel or Votto will be below average as well. That means Barnhart and Galvis can't be handed spots IMO. The Reds need to add about 120 runs or so to the offense from last season.

Even if they can do that, they need to find some money to upgrade the pen, but with Will Smith off the market, there aren't many upgrades to be had. I might offer Jeremy Jeffress and Shawn Kelley make good deals, Not seeing any certain upgrades on the FA market. I might take a shot at somebody like Colin McHugh who could be an alternative to Mahle and bullpen depth if Mahle steps up.

[Ren Deagle]

The only thing I can say about Ozuna is this: HOW can any Reds fan ever think of giving a draft pick of any kind to the Cardinals? And tell me the last time we got an ex-Cardinal and he amounted to anything?

[Old school 1983]

The only thing I can say about Ozuna is this: HOW can any Reds fan ever think of giving a draft pick of any kind to the Cardinals? And tell me the last time we got an ex-Cardinal and he amounted to anything?

Scott Rolen. Dmitri Young.

[Rijo's Ghost]

Ozuna is a waste of money, his defensive liabilities are legendary. He couldn't catch leprosy in a leprosorium.
Nicholas Castellanos is equally as bad, they can hit, but don't insult this fanbase and bring them here for big dollars if they legitimately can't play the field.

Where is this narrative coming from? Ozuna has been a plus defender in LF by every available metric his entire career. +23 DRS for his career with no seasons in the negative, +15.8 UZR with no seasons in the negative.

[marcshoe]

Where is this narrative coming from? Ozuna has been a plus defender in LF by every available metric his entire career. +23 DRS for his career with no seasons in the negative, +15.8 UZR with no seasons in the negative.

It may partly because he's made some obvious, highlight-reel, misplays, but this is the narrative I've seen nearly everywhere, with some mention of him grading out poorly on statcast. I like Ozuna's hitting potential in Cincy more than many here, so I'm hoping the current wisdom is wrong. it can be.

[MikeS21]

The only thing I can say about Ozuna is this: HOW can any Reds fan ever think of giving a draft pick of any kind to the Cardinals? And tell me the last time we got an ex-Cardinal and he amounted to anything?

Giving up a draft pick is the worst part of an Ozuna deal. It just doesn’t make sense to me to invest all this money in building up the analytics of the organization, and then punting an early opportunity to use that new tool to make a draft choice. It’s already a little dicey picking later in the first round, but they could still land a decent prospect if they apply some of those new some of those new coaches and development personnel to the scouting.

[DocRed]

Giving up a draft pick is the worst part of an Ozuna deal. It just doesn’t make sense to me to invest all this money in building up the analytics of the organization, and then punting an early opportunity to use that new tool to make a draft choice. It’s already a little dicey picking later in the first round, but they could still land a decent prospect if they apply some of those new some of those new coaches and development personnel to the scouting.

Ya but its only our third draft pick. We still have our first and second round picks/

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds need to add about 120 runs or so to the offense from last season.

I'm curious where you get the 120 runs. The Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals-- who, I hope we can all agree, were all definite playoff contenders-- all scored less than 770 runs.

That's where I'd target FA offense improvement. With the Reds' pitching staff, adding 70 "outside" runs should get them somewhere in the ballpark of competing for a playoff spot. (This assumes the Reds' interior guys-- your three question marks of Votto, Senzel, and Aquino-- average out to slightly better than league average. If they don't do at least that, it won't matter anyway.)

The Reds need to spend where they'd get the most upgrade for their money.

To me, that's the key.

I'd argue catcher is by far the biggest opportunity for team improvement through free agency. Steamer projects Grandal to be a 115 wRC+ bat and provide nearly 5 fWAR. Reds' catchers project to 1.3 fWAR together. Aside from Gerrit Cole, he's the true difference-maker on the free agency market.

Shortstop is clearly next. Gregorius projects to a 2.5 fWAR and a league average-ish bat. Galvis, according to Steamer, is just above replacement level. That's a gigantic leap in free agency.

Beyond that? You've got two free agent choices:

Mike Moustakas projects to a 2.8 fWAR as a 3B, but we all know he can play 2B. Reds' 2B VanMeter (0.7) and Peraza (0.4) project to just over a win together.

That gets them there.

Ditto signing Marcell Ozuna as an OF. He projects to a 3.1 fWAR. Platooning Winker and Aquino in RF might also have the added benefit of boosting the offense.

So it's, in order:

1. Catcher
2. Shortstop
3. 2B/ OF

[mth123]

I'm curious where you get the 120 runs. The Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals-- who, I hope we can all agree, were all definite playoff contenders-- all scored less than 770 runs.

I'm not interested in half measures that may help the Reds squeak-in if the Cardinals have a down year and the team planes in Chicago and Milwaukee collide mid-air. I want them to build a team on par with the Dodger, Astros, Nationals, Yankees, etc. To do that, in a park like GABP, they need to be a top 5 offense in the NL. Last year they scored a wimpy 701 runs. The Cubs scored 814 runs last year. If the Reds could add 120 runs, they'd be top 5 in the league and top in the division. Any other goal is aiming too low. It will definitely take some internal rebounds to get there, but the Reds need to add to productive bats to go with Suarez and Winker and the other positions all need to have a chance to be productive. Some guys will have bad years and some of the productive guys may miss time with injuries. If they go into the season with guys we know before the first pitch is thrown will be well below league average (Barnhart, Galvis), this team simply won't be able to score enough runs.

The pitching was good last year, but the Cardinals were better and the Cubs right behind the Reds (only six more runs allowed). To compete with those teams, they need to score with the Cubs and outscore the Cardinals. The Reds need to make up 112 runs in run differential on the Cardinals and 107 runs on the Cubs. Adding 70 runs isn't enough unless they can significantly improve the run prevention. I don't see the run prevention getting a lot better. The ball park works for the reds in scoring runs, that is where they should focus to make those numbers up.

[M2]

I'm curious where you get the 120 runs. The Brewers, Indians, and Cardinals-- who, I hope we can all agree, were all definite playoff contenders-- all scored less than 770 runs.

That's where I'd target FA offense improvement. With the Reds' pitching staff, adding 70 "outside" runs should get them somewhere in the ballpark of competing for a playoff spot. (This assumes the Reds' interior guys-- your three question marks of Votto, Senzel, and Aquino-- average out to slightly better than league average. If they don't do at least that, it won't matter anyway.)

-----------

To me, that's the key.

I'd argue catcher is by far the biggest opportunity for team improvement through free agency. Steamer projects Grandal to be a 115 wRC+ bat and provide nearly 5 fWAR. Reds' catchers project to 1.3 fWAR together. Aside from Gerrit Cole, he's the true difference-maker on the free agency market.

Shortstop is clearly next. Gregorius projects to a 2.5 fWAR and a league average-ish bat. Galvis, according to Steamer, is just above replacement level. That's a gigantic leap in free agency.

Beyond that? You've got two free agent choices:

Mike Moustakas projects to a 2.8 fWAR as a 3B, but we all know he can play 2B. Reds' 2B VanMeter (0.7) and Peraza (0.4) project to just over a win together.

That gets them there.

Ditto signing Marcell Ozuna as an OF. He projects to a 3.1 fWAR. Platooning Winker and Aquino in RF might also have the added benefit of boosting the offense.

So it's, in order:

1. Catcher
2. Shortstop
3. 2B/ OF

If we look at Wins Above Average - https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...m_output::none - the Reds were weakest at 2B (-2.4 WAA) and CF (-1.4 WAA). My general take has been that Nick Senzel will be playing one of those two positions, and his biggest positive impact (assuming he's healthy and scratches more of his potential) would be at 2B. So get a good CF, kill those two birds with one stone and then be opportunistic about the rest.

The Reds are fairly middling at catcher (a hair below average, but above the median). If Tucker Barnhart can be more like his .273/.367/.448 2nd half, then the Reds have the position fairly well covered. Grandal strikes me as the lone guy who could give them a major upgrade, so I'm hesitant to put too many eggs in that basket. Most likely he takes an offer to play somewhere else. Great if they get him, but the plan for 2020 has to be able to shift to something other than "get Grandal."

As for SS, Galvis is going to start for this team, and his value/production is best at SS. He can be a plus there, but he's probably a negative at SS. So, if they're going to get a SS, getting rid of Galvis strikes me as essential. I'm also looking more at a Corey Seager/Trevor Story type of move for SS rather than plunking down money on a post-prime Didi. Honestly, for what he'll cost and with Garcia having a breakout season in the minors, I'm landing on the side of staying away from Didi.

[Bourgeois Zee]

If we look at Wins Above Average - https://www.baseball-reference.com/l...m_output::none - the Reds were weakest at 2B (-2.4 WAA) and CF (-1.4 WAA). My general take has been that Nick Senzel will be playing one of those two positions, and his biggest positive impact (assuming he's healthy and scratches more of his potential) would be at 2B. So get a good CF, kill those two birds with one stone and then be opportunistic about the rest.

I think you're assuming a lot about Senzel, 2B, and 2020 that we shouldn't do.

2020 projections show the following:

1. Senzel looks to be about league average across the board. He's filler, according to projections. That has its uses, of cource, especially because he's cheap and has massive upside. Scott Schebler-- where most of that negative comes-- likely won't even make the team.

2. You assume there's a CF out there (you conveniently ignore the free agent portion of my post) who can provide a big bump. Who might that be? From where I sit, there isn't one on the free agent market at all. As to what they might acquire, this almost always means they'll have to give up something as well.

3. There are an absolute ton of free agent 2B who project to be between 2.8 (Moustakas) and league average. They can be had cheaply as well.

The Reds are fairly middling at catcher (a hair below average, but above the median). If Tucker Barnhart can be more like his .273/.367/.448 2nd half, then the Reds have the position fairly well covered. Grandal strikes me as the lone guy who could give them a major upgrade, so I'm hesitant to put too many eggs in that basket. Most likely he takes an offer to play somewhere else. Great if they get him, but the plan for 2020 has to be able to shift to something other than "get Grandal."

Sometimes, the year chooses you.

Grandal is the biggest projected difference-maker who's readily available for nothing more than money.

As for SS, Galvis is going to start for this team, and his value/production is best at SS. He can be a plus there, but he's probably a negative at SS. So, if they're going to get a SS, getting rid of Galvis strikes me as essential. I'm also looking more at a Corey Seager/Trevor Story type of move for SS rather than plunking down money on a post-prime Didi. Honestly, for what he'll cost and with Garcia having a breakout season in the minors, I'm landing on the side of staying away from Didi.

Galvis might well start while with the Reds. But it's certainly not set in stone, IMO, that he has to. Williams hasn't shown that type of thinking since he's been in charge. In fact, his three closest Reds' comps disagree with this statement. Gennett was a starter in Milwaukee, but began as a utility guy. Dietrich and Iglesias weren't going to be starters either-- until injuries and ineffectiveness hit.

I agree that Seager or Story would be better players, but that wasn't my argument at all. I focused on free agents only.

[757690]

I'm not interested in half measures that may help the Reds squeak-in if the Cardinals have a down year and the team planes in Chicago and Milwaukee collide mid-air. I want them to build a team on par with the Dodger, Astros, Nationals, Yankees, etc.

There are 100 million reasons why that is impossible.

[mth123]

There are 100 million reasons why that is impossible.

Yep. Its a tough task, but just in their own division the Reds run differential was 112 runs worse than the Cardinals and 107 runs worse than the Cubs. That's the gap the Reds need to bridge. I don't think they can do much better on the run prevention side than they did last year. Pitching and defense can be improved, but I just don't see the Runs allowed side of that equation getting much better. The Reds need to score a lot more runs to compete for a division/wildcard. If all stayed the same and the Reds added those 120 runs, they'd be less than a full game better than St. Louis from a pythag standpoint. The Reds have a big job and need massive upgrades at certain positions. Marginal upgrades (like Ozuna in place of Winker) won't get them there. I know Grandal or else is a pretty limited plan, but I really don't see how they can get there without a significant offensive upgrade behind the plate. If they had the opportunity to upgrade at other positions (1B for example) they wouldn't be so locked in, but Grandal instead of Barnhart is probably the best single upgrade available and given the chasm they are looking at, it's almost a must do.