2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

[Kc61]

BA hasn't been particularly good at prospect analysis for a long, long time. They have blind spots-- like tooled up middle of the field defenders whose numbers are masked by league effects. They also have biases-- like high draftees.

I have no dog in this fight either. I'm the very model of unbiased when it comes to analysis between India and Garcia.

I view BA as a credible, useful source on minor league players.

[Kc61]

Garcia broke out. India got exposed. It would be foolish to ignore that.

As for power, Garcia had 46 XBH in 452 PA while India had 34 XBH in 512 PA. Maybe India would see a big power jump if he could sort out his hit tool, but his lack of effective contact is undercutting his present power.

Yeah, García had a High A breakout just like TJ Friedl last year. TJ made RedZone’s top ten prospects in the poll last year you’ll recall.

As I said, beware one-year spikes before AA.

I wish García well, hope he continues to do well.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yeah, García had a High A breakout just like TJ Friedl last year. TJ made RedZone’s top ten prospects in the poll last year you’ll recall.

As I said, beware one-year spikes before AA.

I wish García well, hope he continues to do well.

Garcia and Friedl are not comparable.

Garcia has a high pedigree, which you referenced with India. Friedl really doesn’t, he was paid like a 5th round pick or so. Garcia was paid like a first round pick.

[reds77]

India isn't getting the Redszone love.

[Kinsm]

Ok, but I'm not buying what they are selling. I admit I don't know much about the kid,, since he is a newbie to the organization, but having never heard of him, prior to the trade, and his not wowing us when he got here. I don't see top 10.

Curious as to why Hannah is even listed, unless someone voted for him. Is it because he replaced Trammell? I don't recall him being a top A's prospect.
Seems a little out of character, even for RZ.

He may not be a Reds top 10 prospect in your opinion, but he'll be close in virtually every pundit ranking - BA, MLBPipe, and Fangraphs. A year and a half ago the A's decided he was the 50th best player in the draft, and nearly gave him 2 million dollars to sign. He opened the 2019 season as the A's #7 prospect by BA, even though he was only 21 and only played a half season as a pro. This past season, in his first full year as a pro he had a .340 OBP while potentially having a future filling in at a premium defensive position.

Nothing wrong with him being a selection option right now. The Reds system after the top 6 is shallow.

[Kinsm]

Yeah, García had a High A breakout just like TJ Friedl last year. TJ made RedZone’s top ten prospects in the poll last year you’ll recall.

As I said, beware one-year spikes before AA.

I wish García well, hope he continues to do well.

Garcia did it as a 21 year old SS playing only his second season in a foreign land, he also showed more power and a better SB ratio in a larger sample at that level than Friedl.

Friedl was also nearly 2 years older, he started the 2018 season repeating the level he finished at in 2017, was playing a lesser defensive position, and was in a land he's more than comfy in.

Thus Garcia's performance at A+ this year was more impressive than Friedl's the year before.

If Garcia drops to 2B next year similar to Friedl moving to the corners this past season then it'd be more equal. However, if Garcia puts up another line at AA next year as he did this one then he's arguably the Reds best prospect.

[M2]

Yeah, García had a High A breakout just like TJ Friedl last year. TJ made RedZone’s top ten prospects in the poll last year you’ll recall.

As I said, beware one-year spikes before AA.

I wish García well, hope he continues to do well.

Beware guys who can't hit for average too. Garcia has tools. He plays SS. The system isn't swimming in sure things.

[Kc61]

C

Garcia and Friedl are not comparable.

Garcia has a high pedigree, which you referenced with India. Friedl really doesn’t, he was paid like a 5th round pick or so. Garcia was paid like a first round pick.

If you’re adopting the pedigree test to argue for Garcia over Friedl - then you must agree with India over Garcia under the same rationale.

Can’t have it both ways.

[Kc61]

Beware guys who can't hit for average too. Garcia has tools. He plays SS. The system isn't swimming in sure things.

Ia batting average the test? I thought that was old school thinking. I could just as easily note that India, in 145 PAs at AA, had a BA of .270.

Garcia does play short, which provides value, but it doesn’t mean he’s a better prospect. That still depends on him succeeding at higher levels than High A.

[Kc61]

If Garcia drops to 2B next year similar to Friedl moving to the corners this past season then it'd be more equal. However, if Garcia puts up another line at AA next year as he did this one then he's arguably the Reds best prospect.

Agree, Garcia’s status as a prospect will be more clear after some time at AA.

[RedTeamGo!]

C

If you’re adopting the pedigree test to argue for Garcia over Friedl - then you must agree with India over Garcia under the same rationale.

Can’t have it both ways.

Why? My point is India and Garcia have the same pedigree. It’s not Garcia’s fault he couldn’t be drafted. And either way, I’m not arguing the pedigree test, I think it’s nonsense. I’m just shooting a hole in your faulty argument.

Friedl doesn’t even have anything to do with this discussion. I have no clue why you even brought him up.

[Kc61]

Garcia has a high pedigree, which you referenced with India. Friedl really doesn’t, he was paid like a 5th round pick or so. Garcia was paid like a first round pick.

Seems to me this was argued in support of Garcia. I mean, that’s what it says.

[RedTeamGo!]

Seems to me this was argued in support of Garcia. I mean, that’s what it says.

....you brought the pedigree thing up, I was simply saying it does not work here because India and Garcia have a similar pedigree and Friedl does not....

Why did you even bring up Friedl?

[Kc61]

....you brought the pedigree thing up, I was simply saying it does not work here because India and Garcia have a similar pedigree and Friedl does not....

Why did you even bring up Friedl?

My reason for discussing Freidl was made clear in a previous post. And your post, however you now describe it, was pretty clear too. So let’s just allow the previous posts to stand without rehashing them.

[M2]

Ia batting average the test? I thought that was old school thinking. I could just as easily note that India, in 145 PAs at AA, had a BA of .270.

Garcia does play short, which provides value, but it doesn’t mean he’s a better prospect. That still depends on him succeeding at higher levels than High A.

BA's a test, and India's getting crummy marks in it. He's been ineffective with the bat, hitting .254 in 696 MiLB PAs. His XBH rate is poor too. Explain to me how that succeeds when starts facing pitchers who aren't going to issue him as many free passes. The most simple answer is it doesn't, and he needs to improve. So, I'm taking Garcia's tools/2019 performance over a guy who's got to find something more. Not saying India can't/won't do it, just that I prefer what Garcia's bringing to the table.