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View Poll Results: #4 on the Farm?!

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • 2B Tyler Callihan

    0 0%
  • CF Stuart Fairchild

    1 1.85%
  • SS Jose Garcia

    37 68.52%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    0 0%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    0 0%
  • 3B Jonathan India

    14 25.93%
  • RHSP Lyon Richardson

    0 0%
  • RHSP Antonio Santillan

    2 3.70%
  • CF Mike Siani

    0 0%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    0 0%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

  1. #46
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    My reason for discussing Freidl was made clear in a previous post. And your post, however you now describe it, was pretty clear too. So let’s just allow the previous posts to stand without rehashing them.
    The problem is you're not making all that compelling a case for India.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.


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  3. #47
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The problem is you're not making all that compelling a case for India.
    The case for India - compelling or not - is that he’s a much more reliable candidate to be a successful MLB player. Not that Garcia can’t be. But India’s a more reliable choice. With upside.

    This is based on India’s college career; all the reports about him as a draft choice; his high draft selection (most RedsZoners approved); the plate discipline he’s showed; and his 145 PAs at AA in which he hit .792 OPS. Also defensive versatility albeit not at premium positions.

    The case for Garcia is raw talent (which India has too), a premium position, and a spike at A+ ball at a relatively young age. This assumes Garcia can be a MLB defensive shortstop, which appears true at this stage.

    I appreciate what Garcia has to offer, but I simply can’t give all this credit for one hot season below AA. India has a much deeper pedigree, he started to show his wares at AA, and is the better bet right now.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-30-2019 at 10:10 AM.

  4. #48
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Garcia has the higher floor and the higher ceiling.

    Based on production, he also has the higher "now."

    Perhaps India has the better pedigree. (That has certainly not been proven, but let's just play along.)

    So what? Guys with pedigrees fail literally all the time.

    As M2 says, India has some holes in his game that Garcia does not. Those holes need to be addressed, or India will be another in a long, long line of former high draft picks who struggled to gain any traction in pro ball.

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    M2 (12-01-2019)

  6. #49
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The case for India - compelling or not - is that he’s a much more reliable candidate to be a successful MLB player. Not that Garcia can’t be. But India’s a more reliable choice. With upside.

    This is based on India’s college career; all the reports about him as a draft choice; his high draft selection (most RedsZoners approved); the plate discipline he’s showed; and his 145 PAs at AA in which he hit .792 OPS. Also defensive versatility albeit not at premium positions.

    The case for Garcia is raw talent (which India has too), a premium position, and a spike at A+ ball at a relatively young age. This assumes Garcia can be a MLB defensive shortstop, which appears true at this stage.

    I appreciate what Garcia has to offer, but I simply can’t give all this credit for one hot season below AA. India has a much deeper pedigree, he started to show his wares at AA, and is the better bet right now.
    I don't completely disagree with what you are saying. I tend to discount performance below AA quite a bit. But .792 OPS seems a little pedestrian as a selling point to me. We could also argue that India's pedigree is mostly due to one hot season in College which is kind of the same argument being used against Garcia. I think these are both pretty good prospects but both have a significant chance to wash out and become nothing. I think you could flip a coin between Stephenson, Garcia, India, Santillan and Fairchild and any order seems reasonable to me. I don't think they are top of the list types, but they are fine as middle of the top 10 guys. They will likely end-up being ranked 3 though 7 and that seems right to me. I went Stephenson because I envision power showing up making him a pretty valuable catcher. Garcia was next because he's a SS with a pulse. I'll probably go Fairchild next who had an even better AA debut than India for even more PAs and he can play CF. India next because he hasn't had the chance to fail at the upper levels that Santillan had but they are all so close, any order seems OK to me. After Santillan, I really have no idea. Seems like a big drop off. I'll be interested in reading the opinions on everyone after that.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

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    RedlegJake (11-30-2019)

  8. #50
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    After Santillan, I really have no idea. Seems like a big drop off. I'll be interested in reading the opinions on everyone after that.
    This is spot on to me.

    There is a chasm between Santillan/ Fairchild and the rest of the list.

    I'm a big Jose Acosta fan, but he is so, so far away. Ditto Rece Hinds, Debbie Santana, Ivan Johnson, Fidel Castro, and Tyler Callihan. Lyon Richardson is another who improved as the season wore on, but is a long way away. Miguel Medrano is too. (He's a sleeper, IMO.) I like Packy Naughton a lot more than most, I suspect. (And think Driveline may help him more than any other pitcher in the Red minor league pipeline.)

    Lots of interesting names, but there are no sure things. At that point, you're throwing darts at the prospect board.

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    mace (11-30-2019)

  10. #51
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Garcia has the higher floor and the higher ceiling.

    Based on production, he also has the higher "now."

    Perhaps India has the better pedigree. (That has certainly not been proven, but let's just play along.)

    So what? Guys with pedigrees fail literally all the time.
    .
    You say Garcia has the higher floor and ceiling. It’s unsubstantiated opinion. Completely subjective and highly debatable.

    Based on production, India has produced at a higher, AA, level and did pretty well. Not a huge sample but 145 PAs.

    As for pedigree, India was a top five overall pick in June of 2018. That’s 17 months ago, less than 1.5 seasons. His pedigree is a significant criterion at this stage, it’s quite fresh.

    As for holes in the game, let’s see Garcia’s “game’ at AA and AAA. And India’s. Then we can discuss holes.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-30-2019 at 11:15 AM.

  11. #52
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    This is spot on to me.

    There is a chasm between Santillan/ Fairchild and the rest of the list.

    I'm a big Jose Acosta fan, but he is so, so far away. Ditto Rece Hinds, Debbie Santana, Ivan Johnson, Fidel Castro, and Tyler Callihan. Lyon Richardson is another who improved as the season wore on, but is a long way away. Miguel Medrano is too. (He's a sleeper, IMO.) I like Packy Naughton a lot more than most, I suspect. (And think Driveline may help him more than any other pitcher in the Red minor league pipeline.)

    Lots of interesting names, but there are no sure things. At that point, you're throwing darts at the prospect board.
    Thanks for the rundown. Based on those names. Lyon Richardson looks pretty good actually. 19 year old in full season ball with very good peripherals in 112 IP. I may actually jump him ahead of some of the others.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  12. #53
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Thanks for the rundown. Based on those names. Lyon Richardson looks pretty good actually. 19 year old in full season ball with very good peripherals in 112 IP. I may actually jump him ahead of some of the others.
    I've got Lyon R in the top ten. Not sure of the upside, but seems to control the strike zone well for a young pup.

  13. #54
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    I've got Richardson in my top ten for sure, just not for sure where in the bottom half. India and Fairchild come next for me. Then Santillan, after that I'll have to do some cramming. Kuhnel will be close by then, and Hendrix, Siani, Acosta, Naughton, Hinds and Callihan, and I do like Ival Johnson just not top ten more than likely. Top fifteen, though. Of the voting list Hannah probably doesn't make top twenty though certainly very soon after.
    Last edited by RedlegJake; 11-30-2019 at 02:36 PM.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  14. #55
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    My remaining top ten would be some mix of:

    India
    Fairchild
    Santillan
    Naughton
    Richardson
    Siani
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  15. #56
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    My remaining top ten would be some mix of:

    India
    Fairchild
    Santillan
    Naughton
    Richardson
    Siani
    I have Acosta in mine, for sure, but most of the others are probably here.

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    M2 (12-01-2019)

  17. #57
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I have Acosta in mine, for sure, but most of the others are probably here.
    I like that Acosta's full name is Jose Daniel. Joseph Daniel. Just like another hitter we all know.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  18. #58
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    I confess, I don't get the Acosta love for top 10 in this org (well...any org) right now. There's plenty to like based on his 2019 line, but it was done in an extremely small sample and put up primarily in the Dominican against kids two years younger than him (the rest against Dominican players in the AZL). In an equal sized sample in the same league the year prior he was terrible. I could see his batting line next year in RK ball being just as bad as I could see it being good. The one big thing going for the small bodied guy is speed, defensively speaking he's a terrible 3rdbaseman and will have to now show he can play regularly as a 2bman or possibly be moved to the outfield.

    I probably wouldn't give him a top 30 vote yet, maybe 12 months from now.

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    RedlegJake (12-01-2019),REDREAD (12-01-2019)

  20. #59
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Nor do I see the love for Packy Naughton...his funky delivery is deceiving all but the best minor leaguers at the lower levels but I don't see it working in the bigs. His best pitch being the changeup also works against him transitioning and becoming a better reliever than a starter, as those types are typically better fastball/slider pitchers who lack a changeup; if that's the case it knocks his value even more so.

    His age 24 season in AAA against primarily failed big leaguers will go a long way to proving his abilities.

    Will get a vote from me somewhere in the 11-30 range though.

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    REDREAD (12-01-2019)

  22. #60
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #4 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The case for India - compelling or not - is that he’s a much more reliable candidate to be a successful MLB player. Not that Garcia can’t be. But India’s a more reliable choice. With upside.
    India's been reliably disappointing in pro ball. That's not the reliable I want.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    Tom Servo (12-01-2019)


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