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View Poll Results: #7 on the Farm?!

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  • 2B Tyler Callihan

    2 3.57%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    1 1.79%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    0 0%
  • RHSP Lyon Richardson

    0 0%
  • RHSP Antonio Santillan

    42 75.00%
  • CF Mike Siani

    8 14.29%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    3 5.36%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

  1. #61
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't care about that. I assume they'll all have Siani higher because that's where the groupthink is. He got a $2M signing bonus and has some tools (though no the two that make you useful at the plate). However, Acosta did something exceptional in the DSL and then jumped over to the AZL where he didn't miss a beat (which is rare and deserves notice). We're trying to figure out which of these kids might actually be on the ramp to a productive career in the majors. I'm taking the kid with the outrageous offensive numbers. Maybe he flames out along the way, but at least his flame is on at this point in time. I don't need outside validation to tell me premium offensive talent is the grail for which we're searching in every position player.
    I appreciate your enthusiasm, M2, and not trying to be a jerk, but I'm just not seeing the substance you keep insisting on. Acosta posted a big OPS in the Dominican (1.113) and then posted an .874 in 50 PA in what are glorified controlled scrimmages. He's a 5'10" infielder (non-SS). There's nothing really there to buoy any hope on beyond the 184 PA in the DSL.


    In 2018, Fidel Castro came over and posted a .931 OPS in 63 PA as a 19-year-old in the Arizona League. He's actually still hitting. I don't see why you wouldn't be as high, if not higher, on Castro than Acosta.

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  3. #62
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't care about that. I assume they'll all have Siani higher because that's where the groupthink is. He got a $2M signing bonus and has some tools (though no the two that make you useful at the plate). However, Acosta did something exceptional in the DSL and then jumped over to the AZL where he didn't miss a beat (which is rare and deserves notice). We're trying to figure out which of these kids might actually be on the ramp to a productive career in the majors. I'm taking the kid with the outrageous offensive numbers. Maybe he flames out along the way, but at least his flame is on at this point in time. I don't need outside validation to tell me premium offensive talent is the grail for which we're searching in every position player.
    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree with the general sentiment. Now let's pretend we have the choice between a kid who did something in the DSL (and for a short spell in the AZL) versus some others who didn't really do anything stateside. And we haven't seen anything coming out of the DSL like the numbers Acosta posted last season. He had a .400/.500/.600 season. Those are video game numbers. It was so absurd the Reds named him their minor league hitter of the year. I'm pretty sure that honor had gone to zero DSL players in the past. IMO, it's a serious mistake to treat Acosta like just another DSL player. I'm not saying you've got to pick him right here, but Acosta set a new standard on the field (shattered the old one) and he ought to set a new standard for where we rate a prospect from the DSL.

    My take is we're looking at a system that collapsed in 2019. It's hard to have a worse season on the farm that the Reds did. So I'm looking for who might come crawling out of the rubble.
    Doing something exception in the DSL is barely correlated to anything in regards to future performance. Prospect evaluators pretty much always say to throw those stats away because the level of competition is bad and pitching is sub-par. His season wasn't anything crazy by DSL standards either, many other no-names have had just as crazy of seasons in the DSL. I also didnt see where the Reds named him their minor league hitter of the year. Pretty sure Doug did on his site but that is it. Aquino was the player of the year.

    I mean just look at this list:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/mi...=200&pagenum=0
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-11-2019 at 02:40 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  4. #63
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    I appreciate your enthusiasm, M2, and not trying to be a jerk, but I'm just not seeing the substance you keep insisting on. Acosta posted a big OPS in the Dominican (1.113) and then posted an .874 in 50 PA in what are glorified controlled scrimmages. He's a 5'10" infielder (non-SS). There's nothing really there to buoy any hope on beyond the 184 PA in the DSL.


    In 2018, Fidel Castro came over and posted a .931 OPS in 63 PA as a 19-year-old in the Arizona League. He's actually still hitting. I don't see why you wouldn't be as high, if not higher, on Castro than Acosta.
    Fair question. My reasoning is Acosta lapped Castro with his DSL numbers. Acosta did something so rare it won him some organizational hardware. Acosta was almost 200 OPS points ahead of Castro in the DSL at the same age, and Castro was really impressive. Yet Castro did have a good year in the AZL in 2019 (and did well in a cup of coffee stint in Greeneville). He should be moving up our board. Wendell Marrero also had a sparkly debut in the AZL, and we ought to be putting some respect on his name.
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  5. #64
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Doing something exception in the DSL is barely correlated to anything in regards to future performance. Prospect evaluators pretty much always say to throw those stats away because the level of competition is bad and pitching is sub-par. His season wasn't anything crazy by DSL standards either, many other no-names have had just as crazy of seasons in the DSL. I also didnt see where the Reds named him their minor league hitter of the year. Pretty sure Doug did on his site but that is it. Aquino was the player of the year.

    I mean just look at this list:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/mi...=200&pagenum=0
    What that list points out is we have no way to correlate Acosta's DSL performance to much of anything. The only two guys who posted similar numbers to him did it the year before. Turns out 1.000 OPSes don't grow on trees. One flopped (though he's really young), one kept raking. And, again, I don't need to be sold that an outrageous year in the DSL in no guarantee for the future. I know I'm picking a long shot, said it explicitly multiple times. However, I'm not acting like everyone else on the board isn't a long shot. It's a question of which flimsy premise do you want to pick. I've picked mine.

    And you lost me on your Reds minor league hitter of the year comment. He won it, and I'm not sure they've ever given a player/hitter/pitcher of the year honor to a kid in the DSL prior to that. Can't remember one. So the Reds noticed what he did was unusually excellent.
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  7. #65
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Fair question. My reasoning is Acosta lapped Castro with his DSL numbers.
    In a league that averaged .247/ .349/ .346/ .695, Acosta went .403/ .503/ .611/ 1.113. Each of those numbers rank either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in a league that had 45 teams.

    Acosta was 418 OPS points higher than league average.

    Sure, he's a long, long way from the Show, but his season (even if truncated) was special.

    Interestingly, no Red player has had as high a BA since Gary Redus in 1978.

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  9. #66
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    What that list points out is we have no way to correlate Acosta's DSL performance to much of anything. The only two guys who posted similar numbers to him did it the year before. Turns out 1.000 OPSes don't grow on trees. One flopped (though he's really young), one kept raking. And, again, I don't need to be sold that an outrageous year in the DSL in no guarantee for the future. I know I'm picking a long shot, said it explicitly multiple times. However, I'm not acting like everyone else on the board isn't a long shot. It's a question of which flimsy premise do you want to pick. I've picked mine.

    And you lost me on your Reds minor league hitter of the year comment. He won it, and I'm not sure they've ever given a player/hitter/pitcher of the year honor to a kid in the DSL prior to that. Can't remember one. So the Reds noticed what he did was unusually excellent.
    It appears the sorted list doesn't make it through copy and pasting the link. There are a handful of guys who put up seasons as good or better than Acosta: Malcolm Nunez, Diowill Burgos, Vicente Lupo, Kelvin Diaz, Brian Sanchez, Jose Augusto Figueroa. Among Fangraphs DSL database, there have been 22 seasons of a 1.000 OPS with a minimum of 150 PA's. I recognize 1 name in the list, Domingo Leyba. Odds are these people are typically physically mature players beating up on high school level competition. Once they move to age/body appropriate competition they get exposed and flame out. As I mentioned before, Acosta is someone to keep an eye, but there is literally no information on the internet about him outside of stats, which makes it very suspect to rank him anywhere near many other guys in the system. My other big complain is his numbers were propelled by a crazy high BABIP even for a league with crazy high BABIPs. He didn't get those numbers by having a ridiculous BB rate and minuscule K rate.


    Jose Garcia was the Reds minor league hitter of the year: https://www.milb.com/dayton/news/for...ds/c-312116968
    Jose Acosta was Doug's minor league hitter of the year: https://redsminorleagues.com/2019/09...r-jose-acosta/

    I'm gonna ask Kiley about him in the current fangraphs chat, hopefully I get a response. He is wildly mysterious.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-11-2019 at 04:04 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  10. #67
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Jose Garcia was the Reds minor league hitter of the year: https://www.milb.com/dayton/news/for...ds/c-312116968
    Jose Acosta was Doug's minor league hitter of the year: https://redsminorleagues.com/2019/09...r-jose-acosta/
    My bad on that. Should have checked that source more deeply.
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  11. #68
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    In a league that averaged .247/ .349/ .346/ .695, Acosta went .403/ .503/ .611/ 1.113. Each of those numbers rank either 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in a league that had 45 teams.

    Acosta was 418 OPS points higher than league average.

    Sure, he's a long, long way from the Show, but his season (even if truncated) was special.

    Interestingly, no Red player has had as high a BA since Gary Redus in 1978.
    No one is arguing that his numbers weren't solid.

    The league average hitter in the DSL was 17.7 years of age, and those averages were contrived from 121K PA's. Acosta was 19.4 years of age and his numbers are from 234 PA's and he had an ungodly BABip. Somewhat ironically, he was terrible in 2018 in a similar sample size.

    There is a reason why he's not going to be in top 30 lists, and definitely a reason why he shouldn't be considered a top 10 in these rankings.

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  13. #69
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    You guys certainly care a lot more about who M2 votes for than I do. I will sleep like a baby tonight despite his vote for Acosta. (Of course that's after my Melatonin)
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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  15. #70
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    You guys certainly care a lot more about who M2 votes for than I do. I will sleep like a baby tonight despite his vote for Acosta. (Of course that's after my Melatonin)
    This is the proper take.
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