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View Poll Results: #7 on the Farm?!

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  • 2B Tyler Callihan

    2 3.57%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    1 1.79%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    0 0%
  • RHSP Lyon Richardson

    0 0%
  • RHSP Antonio Santillan

    42 75.00%
  • CF Mike Siani

    8 14.29%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    3 5.36%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Siani. The ceiling is very high.
    Is it? He's been bad at the plate so far. Ultimately your ceiling is tied to your bat, and I can't say with any confidence he's got a bat that's going to amount to anything.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  3. #17
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is it? He's been bad at the plate so far. Ultimately your ceiling is tied to your bat, and I can't say with any confidence he's got a bat that's going to amount to anything.
    Your ceiling is tied to the tools you possess and what you can become, not what you have done so far.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  4. #18
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Your ceiling is tied to the tools you possess and what you can become, not what you have done so far.
    Sure, but if you've got got great defense and speed and no bat, then you're Billy Hamilton. What's the case for Siani figuring it out at the plate? He's got a good frame, so hopefully he can grow out of that sub-.100 ISOp. Yet I'm looking at a kid with .672 OPS heading into a season in the FSL, and I know how ugly that could get.

    Unless he's got a good bat, then his ceiling isn't very high. That's just how it works. You've got to produce. Maybe he will. I'm not saying he's a lost cause, but his bat is a giant question mark. I REALLY want the Reds to have kids with all of Siani's skills who tear it up at the plate. If Siani gets there, I'm going to love him unconditionally. Right now, absent the bat, I'm scratching my head on him.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  5. #19
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Siani has a lot of tools-- his speed and glove are first-rate. His arm is really good.

    But his hit and power tool both seem below average at this point, and, eventually, he's going to need to hit.

    Even if you give him credit for being young for his league and improving over the course of the season, his second half numbers aren't great.

    .272/ .337/ .343/ .680 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence moving forward.

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    M2 (12-10-2019)

  7. #20
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is it? He's been bad at the plate so far. Ultimately your ceiling is tied to your bat, and I can't say with any confidence he's got a bat that's going to amount to anything.
    With his defense in CF and his base running ability? Yeah. Siani all around has some solid tools. If his hitting develops (he's only 20) he could turn into a top 5 organizational prospect by next year.

  8. #21
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Siani has a lot of tools-- his speed and glove are first-rate. His arm is really good.

    But his hit and power tool both seem below average at this point, and, eventually, he's going to need to hit.

    Even if you give him credit for being young for his league and improving over the course of the season, his second half numbers aren't great.

    .272/ .337/ .343/ .680 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence moving forward.
    I'm not focused on giving him credit for what he's done. I'm focused on his potential going forward.

  9. #22
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    I'm not focused on giving him credit for what he's done. I'm focused on his potential going forward.
    The issue, of course, is how often guys are able to develop from the hole where Siani begins.

    Typically, they don't have to overcome deficits in both power and hit tool.

    They already have one or the other.

    Siani is deficient in both of the things you have to do to play more than cursory major league innings.

    Maybe he gets there.

    More than likely, he's a 5th OF at best.

  10. #23
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Sure, but if you've got got great defense and speed and no bat, then you're Billy Hamilton. What's the case for Siani figuring it out at the plate? He's got a good frame, so hopefully he can grow out of that sub-.100 ISOp. Yet I'm looking at a kid with .672 OPS heading into a season in the FSL, and I know how ugly that could get.

    Unless he's got a good bat, then his ceiling isn't very high. That's just how it works. You've got to produce. Maybe he will. I'm not saying he's a lost cause, but his bat is a giant question mark. I REALLY want the Reds to have kids with all of Siani's skills who tear it up at the plate. If Siani gets there, I'm going to love him unconditionally. Right now, absent the bat, I'm scratching my head on him.
    Billy Hamilton was a top 50 prospect.

  11. #24
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    The issue, of course, is how often guys are able to develop from the hole where Siani begins.

    Typically, they don't have to overcome deficits in both power and hit tool.

    They already have one or the other.

    Siani is deficient in both of the things you have to do to play more than cursory major league innings.

    Maybe he gets there.

    More than likely, he's a 5th OF at best.
    At best I think he's a 10-15 (If he developed into a full time player) HR guy but I think there is more potential in his overall hit tool.

  12. #25
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Billy Hamilton was a top 50 prospect.
    And then his bat got worse when he reached the majors. If Billy Hamilton is your pathway, that's a pretty low ceiling.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  13. #26
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Nothing wrong with the #'s Siani put up last year as a 19 year old in full season ball...his K rate was good, his BB rate was good, he didn't have terrible splits, his speed and defense are off the charts.

    Power is always the last thing to develop.

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    REDREAD (12-13-2019)

  15. #27
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Sure, but if you've got got great defense and speed and no bat, then you're Billy Hamilton. What's the case for Siani figuring it out at the plate? He's got a good frame, so hopefully he can grow out of that sub-.100 ISOp. Yet I'm looking at a kid with .672 OPS heading into a season in the FSL, and I know how ugly that could get.

    Unless he's got a good bat, then his ceiling isn't very high. That's just how it works. You've got to produce. Maybe he will. I'm not saying he's a lost cause, but his bat is a giant question mark. I REALLY want the Reds to have kids with all of Siani's skills who tear it up at the plate. If Siani gets there, I'm going to love him unconditionally. Right now, absent the bat, I'm scratching my head on him.
    Great speed and defense with a good frame means he has a very high ceiling. Let's not forget "ceiling" is his ultimate upside, not his likely outcome. His current performance at the plate signals there is a way to go at the plate before that ceiling is met, but doesn't mean that ceiling isn't there.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-10-2019 at 02:09 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    REDREAD (12-13-2019)

  17. #28
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Siani has a lot of tools-- his speed and glove are first-rate. His arm is really good.

    But his hit and power tool both seem below average at this point, and, eventually, he's going to need to hit.

    Even if you give him credit for being young for his league and improving over the course of the season, his second half numbers aren't great.

    .272/ .337/ .343/ .680 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence moving forward.
    Let's not forget the FSL severely depresses offensive numbers. Siani was perfectly league average with that slash line last year and was one of the youngest players in the league. The only players age 19 with a higher wRC+ were Alek Thomas, Geraldo Perdomo, Jordyn Adams, Bo Naylor, and Cole Roederer. All prospects with decent hype.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-10-2019 at 02:11 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  18. #29
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Great speed and defense with a good frame means he has a very high ceiling. Let's not forget "ceiling" is his ultimate upside, not his likely outcome. His current performance at the plate signals there is a way to go at the plate before that ceiling is met, but doesn't mean that ceiling isn't there.
    It literally does not mean that. Ceiling has to be based on what his actual skills are, not what we'd like them to be. His hit and power tools are lacking. Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in sports. If you're not good early in pro ball, it's a big hill to climb.

    And league average in the minors, especially the low minors, is a nothing-to-see-here player. MLB is considering shrinking the minors because there's so many players who are never going to make it down there. Prospects are the exceptional ones, the ones who dominate their leagues.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    mth123 (12-10-2019)

  20. #30
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It literally does not mean that. Ceiling has to be based on what his actual skills are, not what we'd like them to be. His hit and power tools are lacking. Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in sports. If you're not good early in pro ball, it's a big hill to climb.

    And league average in the minors, especially the low minors, is a nothing-to-see-here player. MLB is considering shrinking the minors because there's so many players who are never going to make it down there. Prospects are the exceptional ones, the ones who dominate their leagues.
    It literally does not mean that. Fangraphs, who I trust quite a bit in their prospect evaluation seems to agree he has untapped potential with the bat. They list his hit tool as 35/55 (current/future) and power tool as 20/45. They seem to agree the potential is there, but he is a ways off. I'm not wishing upon a star that suddenly a guy built like Billy Hamilton will find 15-20 HR power. Siani is listed at 6'1 188 as a 20 year old, he isn't a twig.

    A 55 Hit, 45 Power, good defensive CFer is a top 25 prospect. I'd consider that a very high ceiling.

    League average bat with speed and defense gives you a pretty solid foundation to at least become a backup OFer. Further development with the bat only get you higher.

    Your last paragraph is odd considering you are clamoring for Jose Acosta (almost as old as Siani) who carried a crazy BABIP to ridiculous number at the complex level, which is littered with speedy guys who put up gaudy numbers for a year in the DSL and flame out of baseball not long after.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-11-2019 at 09:28 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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