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View Poll Results: #7 on the Farm?!

Voters
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  • 2B Tyler Callihan

    2 3.57%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    1 1.79%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    0 0%
  • RHSP Lyon Richardson

    0 0%
  • RHSP Antonio Santillan

    42 75.00%
  • CF Mike Siani

    8 14.29%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    3 5.36%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

  1. #31
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It literally does not mean that. Ceiling has to be based on what his actual skills are, not what we'd like them to be. His hit and power tools are lacking. Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do in sports. If you're not good early in pro ball, it's a big hill to climb.

    And league average in the minors, especially the low minors, is a nothing-to-see-here player. MLB is considering shrinking the minors because there's so many players who are never going to make it down there. Prospects are the exceptional ones, the ones who dominate their leagues.
    He was a league average hitter against guys 2 years older than him.

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  3. #32
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Ceiling is a players maximum potential.

  4. #33
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And then his bat got worse when he reached the majors. If Billy Hamilton is your pathway, that's a pretty low ceiling.
    I'm comparing Siani to where Billy was as a prospect. Again I am discussing his potential.

  5. #34
    TyrannoSuarez Wrecks WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Siani isn't an unreasonable choice here. He's my choice for #8.
    Gratitude + Forgiveness = Happiness

  6. #35
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    He was a league average hitter against guys 2 years older than him.
    And Taylor Trammell was 31% better than average in the same position. Yet the Reds moved him when he slumped back to being only 6% better. What Siani did last season was not good or promising, and he needs to stop doing it if he wants to be a good player.
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  7. #36
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And Taylor Trammell was 31% better than average in the same position. Yet the Reds moved him when he slumped back to being only 6% better. What Siani did last season was not good or promising, and he needs to stop doing it if he wants to be a good player.
    Trammell also has a noodle arm. A league average bat really plays with good CF defense. A league average bat is meh when you occupy a corner outfield spot.

    I would hope the Reds are also making prospect decisions based on a lot more than just minor league performance. It is a relevant factor to projection, especially depending on age/level.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  8. #37
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Ceiling is a players maximum potential.
    Technically, every young player's maximum potential is they learn to hit real well. However, the ones that get there in most cases are the ones who already hit real well. Setting a ceiling has got to be based on who the player is, not on the vague notion that maybe he could and wouldn't that be great. There's a point at which you're just pretending.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  9. #38
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Trammell also has a noodle arm. A league average bat really plays with good CF defense. A league average bat is meh when you occupy a corner outfield spot.

    I would hope the Reds are also making prospect decisions based on a lot more than just minor league performance. It is a relevant factor to projection, especially depending on age/level.
    A league average bat in the majors was not a league average bat in the minors. A league average bat in the minors is a guy who fades away into obscurity. Trammell was miles ahead of Siani at the same age and level, both in terms of performance and projection. Maybe Siani gets his act together. Again, I hope he does. Yet I'm seeing a lot of flimsy generalities being applied to his current situation (that collapse with a light poke) instead of actual insight into why he specifically should be better moving forward. I'm all for a good scouting-based assessment of him. No one here has done anything like that.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  11. #39
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    A league average bat in the majors was not a league average bat in the minors. A league average bat in the minors is a guy who fades away into obscurity. Trammell was miles ahead of Siani at the same age and level, both in terms of performance and projection. Maybe Siani gets his act together. Again, I hope he does. Yet I'm seeing a lot of flimsy generalities being applied to his current situation (that collapse with a light poke) instead of actual insight into why he specifically should be better moving forward. I'm all for a good scouting-based assessment of him. No one here has done anything like that.
    What point are you trying to make here? Flimsy generalities? He plays good defense, has good speed, and held his own at the plate (league average bat) as a 19 year old (challenging assignment) in the FSL. He is 6'1 188 and reputable sources think he has room to improve with the bat. Nobody is saying he will definitely get better, people are simply saying that his tool-set, body, and age provide him a chance to improve.

    Your assessment seems to be strictly stat based, while ignoring a challenging assignment, so please get off your high horse about "nobody does good scouting-based assessments" around here. People give great assessments at RZ.

    As far as a "scouting based" assessment. This is his swing from 2018, hopefully it was better in 2019 but I can't find video. He doesn't fully load up his body which leaves untapped power/lift from his lower half. Think about snapping a rubber band when you pull it all the way back vs half way back, he is basically pulling it half way back. He also has a solid looking build. I am sure the Reds are working with him to adjust his pre-swing/load mechanics to use a lot more of his strength/power.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L-Mdq9jf_E

    A few 18-19 year old league average bats in the Midwest league over the past few seasons:

    Francisco Lindor
    Ketel Marte
    Matt Olson
    Renato Nunez
    Franmil Reyes
    Carson Kelly
    Francisco Mejia
    Alex Verdugo
    Dylan Carlson
    Gavin Lux
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-11-2019 at 11:08 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  13. #40
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Technically, every young player's maximum potential is they learn to hit real well. However, the ones that get there in most cases are the ones who already hit real well. Setting a ceiling has got to be based on who the player is, not on the vague notion that maybe he could and wouldn't that be great. There's a point at which you're just pretending.
    Hitting is a part of any players potential just like fielding and base running. I get that it's undeniably the most important part but that doesn't allow us to devalue the other aspects of a players game. I'm not calling Siani a future All Star but based on what I'm hearing about him I don't think calling his ceiling very high is an overstep. Now when I say "very high" I'm speaking relative to prospects i.e. a top 20/25 overall guy. Again I'm not saying I expect that to happen, as that is where I see his ceiling, not where I'm saying he'll end up.

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  15. #41
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Hitting is a part of any players potential just like fielding and base running. I get that it's undeniably the most important part but that doesn't allow us to devalue the other aspects of a players game. I'm not calling Siani a future All Star but based on what I'm hearing about him I don't think calling his ceiling very high is an overstep. Now when I say "very high" I'm speaking relative to prospects i.e. a top 20/25 overall guy. Again I'm not saying I expect that to happen, as that is where I see his ceiling, not where I'm saying he'll end up.
    When I hear "very high," I take that as meaning future All-Star. So if you just mean very high compared to Michael Beltre at this juncture, that's fine.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  16. #42
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Nobody is saying he will definitely get better, people are simply saying that his tool-set, body, and age provide him a chance to improve.
    I agree he has the chance to improve. Many do. Though I feel Siani gets a little too much "looks good in jeans" credit. I get a bit of a B.J. Szymanski vibe from him. So I'm leery how much is projection and how much is hope. He's highly flawed at the moment (seems to be a hole in that swing too). He's also headed into what profiles as an extremely rough season for him. So my instinct is to pump the brakes until he starts to justify the hype.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  17. #43
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    I am fairly bearish on Siani. Power is the last tool to develop, and yet...it needs some bones to stick to. Siani has given us nothing to even dream on the bones.

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  19. #44
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Seems way too early to be viewing him as a 1B.

    I gave him some serious consideration. The .298 OB is what kept me away. Hopefully he sorts that out this season and puts up some sick numbers, because his power (both into the gaps and over the wall) seems legit. He's another one I'd like to see them push into Dayton. Callihan was an over-aged HS player (technically should have been class of 2018). He turns 20 next season. So it's not that aggressive a jump to make.
    Agree he needs to start in Dayton. The 1B projection is just me dreaming about him being Votto 2.0. But I’m fine with “Votto with the range to play 3B” too.

  20. #45
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    I am fairly bearish on Siani. Power is the last tool to develop, and yet...it needs some bones to stick to. Siani has given us nothing to even dream on the bones.
    I didn't vote for him here...but any enthusiasm I have for him is based on the fact that the second half of the year was way better than the first half.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.


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