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View Poll Results: #7 on the Farm?!

Voters
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  • 2B Tyler Callihan

    2 3.57%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    1 1.79%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    0 0%
  • RHSP Lyon Richardson

    0 0%
  • RHSP Antonio Santillan

    42 75.00%
  • CF Mike Siani

    8 14.29%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    3 5.36%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

  1. #46
    Backup First Baseman OGB's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree he has the chance to improve. Many do. Though I feel Siani gets a little too much "looks good in jeans" credit. I get a bit of a B.J. Szymanski vibe from him. So I'm leery how much is projection and how much is hope. He's highly flawed at the moment (seems to be a hole in that swing too). He's also headed into what profiles as an extremely rough season for him. So my instinct is to pump the brakes until he starts to justify the hype.
    No offense, but you've spent the last 2 votes on a 19 year old with 50 career at bats in the United States, who likely doesn't start next year above the AZL, and who I would guess you've seen no video of and read next to zero scouting reports on.

    You have essentially no ground to stand on when it comes to critiquing someone else's selection this high in the rankings.
    Acosta likely doesn't make the top 20.

    Edited to add: It appears that the highest any player who hasn't cracked the AZL has ever started is #28, which was Fidel Castro last season. This doesn't count FAs who were given deals in excess of a million dollars (Chapman, Iglesias, Garcia, AlfRod) who are clear exceptions.
    Last edited by OGB; 12-10-2019 at 08:51 PM.
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

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  3. #47
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I agree he has the chance to improve. Many do. Though I feel Siani gets a little too much "looks good in jeans" credit. I get a bit of a B.J. Szymanski vibe from him. So I'm leery how much is projection and how much is hope. He's highly flawed at the moment (seems to be a hole in that swing too). He's also headed into what profiles as an extremely rough season for him. So my instinct is to pump the brakes until he starts to justify the hype.
    Aside from not thinking Siani has any hope because of his numbers. Do you disagree with anything people have said in regards to him?

    Why do you get a BJ Szymanski vibe? What similarities do they share?

    Justify the hype? We are talking about the 7th or 8th prospect in a system that isn’t deep.

    How does a guy who held his own as one of the younger players in his league profile as being in for a rough season? Do you expect him to get another tough assignment? If so, the reds must think pretty highly of him.

    You’re hyping an unknown complex league player who isn’t putting up Wander Franco complex numbers. Talk about pumping brakes.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-11-2019 at 12:40 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    BillDoran (12-11-2019)

  5. #48
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    No offense, but you've spent the last 2 votes on a 19 year old with 50 career at bats in the United States, who likely doesn't start next year above the AZL, and who I would guess you've seen no video of and read next to zero scouting reports on.

    You have essentially no ground to stand on when it comes to critiquing someone else's selection this high in the rankings.
    Acosta likely doesn't make the top 20.

    Edited to add: It appears that the highest any player who hasn't cracked the AZL has ever started is #28, which was Fidel Castro last season. This doesn't count FAs who were given deals in excess of a million dollars (Chapman, Iglesias, Garcia, AlfRod) who are clear exceptions.
    Well, it was just this vote on Acosta. I voted Fairchild last round.

    And the leg I'm standing on is a .395/.481/.579 season with plus speed. All of the position players on the list at this point are kids we're waiting on for a breakout performance, hoping they show us something special. Acosta just did. I have no idea where they'll start him next season. Seeing that his bat translated to the AZL (pretty impressive that he came stateside and kept raking, most DSL kids don't), doesn't make sense they'd start him lower than Greeneville. I know I'm picking a long shot. Yet it's a board full of long shots. At least my long shot can hit.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  6. #49
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Aside from not thinking Siani has any hope because of his numbers. Do you disagree with anything people have said in regards to him?

    Why do you get a BJ Szymanski vibe? What similarities do they share?

    Justify the hype? We are talking about the 7th or 8th prospect in a system that isn’t deep.

    How does a guy who held his own as one of the younger players in his league profile as being in for a rough season? Do you expect him to get another tough assignment? If so, the reds must think pretty highly of him.

    You’re hyping an unknown complex league player who isn’t putting up Wander Franco complex numbers. Talk about pumping brakes.
    Not sure how much clearer I can be. He's got a problem swing, which makes him ineffective at the plate. Like Szymanski, he looks great in the laundry, but it doesn't translate to field. I don't think he belongs inside the team's top 10. I'd take everyone of the above selections, outside of Hannah, instead of him. I find what he did this past season wholly unimpressive. I do expect him to get a tough assignment in 2020 because the Reds have committed to a course of action with him. I question whether it will be good for him.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  7. #50
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Not sure how much clearer I can be. He's got a problem swing, which makes him ineffective at the plate. Like Szymanski, he looks great in the laundry, but it doesn't translate to field. I don't think he belongs inside the team's top 10. I'd take everyone of the above selections, outside of Hannah, instead of him. I find what he did this past season wholly unimpressive. I do expect him to get a tough assignment in 2020 because the Reds have committed to a course of action with him. I question whether it will be good for him.
    He's got a problem swing, I agree. He won't meet his potential if it isn't fixed, I think everyone in this discussion is agreeing the offense needs to come around. His past season was meh, in my opinion. It wasn't awful to which it leaves little hope, but it wasn't so good that it doesn't leave a lot to desired. Szymanski isn't much of a comp IMO, he was a 6'5 college bat who had major K problems in A ball as a 23 year old. Those extra 4 years offer a lot of development physically. No arguments if you rate Siani lower than the remaining guys listed, I can see an argument for each, but agree with Hannah.

    I guess we differ in that I think Siani might have a 10% chance of really coming around as a hitter, another 10% chance of developing into a passable bat, and you have written him off as hopeless at the plate.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    BillDoran (12-11-2019)

  9. #51
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    Edited to add: It appears that the highest any player who hasn't cracked the AZL has ever started is #28, which was Fidel Castro last season. This doesn't count FAs who were given deals in excess of a million dollars (Chapman, Iglesias, Garcia, AlfRod) who are clear exceptions.
    And honestly he was only voted that high because he had a funny name. If it was Ramon Castro he's probably not making the top 40.

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    OGB (12-11-2019)

  11. #52
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    What point are you trying to make here? Flimsy generalities? He plays good defense, has good speed, and held his own at the plate (league average bat) as a 19 year old (challenging assignment) in the FSL. He is 6'1 188 and reputable sources think he has room to improve with the bat. Nobody is saying he will definitely get better, people are simply saying that his tool-set, body, and age provide him a chance to improve.

    Your assessment seems to be strictly stat based, while ignoring a challenging assignment, so please get off your high horse about "nobody does good scouting-based assessments" around here. People give great assessments at RZ.

    As far as a "scouting based" assessment. This is his swing from 2018, hopefully it was better in 2019 but I can't find video. He doesn't fully load up his body which leaves untapped power/lift from his lower half. Think about snapping a rubber band when you pull it all the way back vs half way back, he is basically pulling it half way back. He also has a solid looking build. I am sure the Reds are working with him to adjust his pre-swing/load mechanics to use a lot more of his strength/power.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8L-Mdq9jf_E

    A few 18-19 year old league average bats in the FSL over the past few seasons:

    Francisco Lindor
    Ketel Marte
    Matt Olson
    Renato Nunez
    Franmil Reyes
    Carson Kelly
    Francisco Mejia
    Alex Verdugo
    Dylan Carlson
    Gavin Lux
    Mike Sinai has yet to swing a bat in the FSL...this seems like a flaw in your arguement.

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    Griffey012 (12-11-2019)

  13. #53
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuff Nut View Post
    Mike Sinai has yet to swing a bat in the FSL...this seems like a flaw in your arguement.
    Whoops, I had my leagues mixed up. Those are all actually from the Midwest league, ala Dayton where Siani played last year.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  14. #54
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Siani has a long way to go before he reaches the big leagues but given today's juiced ball and all, I wouldn't worry about the power tool. Very few guys lack power at the big league level, particularly in Cincinnati. I've seen other prospects such as Winker and Drew Stubbs come up with questions about their power and in the end it was other issues that hindered their playing time

  15. #55
    Backup First Baseman OGB's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    And honestly he was only voted that high because he had a funny name. If it was Ramon Castro he's probably not making the top 40.
    I think there's some truth to this but Debby Santana was also voted (I think) 34th...kinda funny name in his own right, though.
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

  16. #56
    Backup First Baseman OGB's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Well, it was just this vote on Acosta. I voted Fairchild last round.

    And the leg I'm standing on is a .395/.481/.579 season with plus speed. All of the position players on the list at this point are kids we're waiting on for a breakout performance, hoping they show us something special. Acosta just did. I have no idea where they'll start him next season. Seeing that his bat translated to the AZL (pretty impressive that he came stateside and kept raking, most DSL kids don't), doesn't make sense they'd start him lower than Greeneville. I know I'm picking a long shot. Yet it's a board full of long shots. At least my long shot can hit.
    If you want to make a friendly wager, I'll bet you that not a single scouting service in all of baseball has Jose Acosta ranked ahead of Siani at season's end. Winner gets to pick the losers board signature for all of 2021.
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

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    BillDoran (12-11-2019)

  18. #57
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    I can't vote Acosta yet - too many guys I've seen tear up the AZL who fall flat in full season ball to get excited. He's intriguing but more like 18-20 on this years list. Siani? Friedl before him. I know there's an age difference but TJ at least has some success in a much higher league. I don't know why Hannah is on the list at all yet - he is behind Fairchild, Siani, Friedl and yes even Acosta to my thinking.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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    BillDoran (12-11-2019),HokieRed (12-11-2019)

  20. #58
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    If you want to make a friendly wager, I'll bet you that not a single scouting service in all of baseball has Jose Acosta ranked ahead of Siani at season's end. Winner gets to pick the losers board signature for all of 2021.
    I don't care about that. I assume they'll all have Siani higher because that's where the groupthink is. He got a $2M signing bonus and has some tools (though not the two that make you useful at the plate). However, Acosta did something exceptional in the DSL and then jumped over to the AZL where he didn't miss a beat (which is rare and deserves notice). We're trying to figure out which of these kids might actually be on the ramp to a productive career in the majors. I'm taking the kid with the outrageous offensive numbers. Maybe he flames out along the way, but at least his flame is on at this point in time. I don't need outside validation to tell me premium offensive talent is the grail for which we're searching in every position player.
    Last edited by M2; 12-11-2019 at 03:24 PM.
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  21. #59
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    I think there's some truth to this but Debby Santana was also voted (I think) 34th...kinda funny name in his own right, though.
    Yeah, there were a lot of Little Debby jokes flying around. The thing is, between Acosta, Castro, Santana and Darlin Guzman (another fun name) there have actually been some interesting things going on in the DSL the past couple years. They're just a loooooooooong way away. They need to do something in the US to be taken more seriously (and 10 games is not enough).

  22. #60
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #7 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Danny Serafini View Post
    Yeah, there were a lot of Little Debby jokes flying around. The thing is, between Acosta, Castro, Santana and Darlin Guzman (another fun name) there have actually been some interesting things going on in the DSL the past couple years. They're just a loooooooooong way away. They need to do something in the US to be taken more seriously (and 10 games is not enough).
    I agree with the general sentiment. Now let's pretend we have the choice between a kid who did something in the DSL (and for a short spell in the AZL) versus some others who didn't really do anything stateside. And we haven't seen anything coming out of the DSL like the numbers Acosta posted last season. He had a .400/.500/.600 season. Those are video game numbers. It was so absurd the Reds named him their minor league hitter of the year. I'm pretty sure that honor had gone to zero DSL players in the past. IMO, it's a serious mistake to treat Acosta like just another DSL player. I'm not saying you've got to pick him right here, but Acosta set a new standard on the field (shattered the old one) and he ought to set a new standard for where we rate a prospect from the DSL.

    My take is we're looking at a system that collapsed in 2019. It's hard to have a worse season on the farm that the Reds did. So I'm looking for who might come crawling out of the rubble.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.


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