Reds are supposedly in talks with Tribe over Lindor

[Cooper]

How much is 1 WAR win with now -- maybe million? (i'm behind on the most recent analytics) ... Lindor in 2 years generates 12 WAR wins x 8 M = 96M bucks (total guess: his salary in those 2 years is 30M?) - he throws off 66M in value. Senzel in 5 years gives you 18 Wins x 8 = 144M at the cost of 50m over the 5 years = 94 M I also believe that wins that are produced at the margins might be worth more than a replacement player win. I never can remember the econ term ... looks like you're correct Kinsm .... but i don't believe it's near as far apart in value and cost as it appears. Maybe the term i'm looking for is Marginal Value ...you factor in the opportunity cost and in doing so it increases the value of players who produce at a high level.

In the end - not making the trade is still a silly thing to do ... unless you're rooting for the owners bottom line.

[757690]

How much is 1 WAR win with now -- maybe million? (i'm behind on the most recent analytics) ... Lindor in 2 years generates 12 WAR wins x 8 M = 96M bucks (total guess: his salary in those 2 years is 30M?) - he throws off 66M in value. Senzel in 5 years gives you 18 Wins x 8 = 144M at the cost of 50m over the 5 years = 94 M I also believe that wins that are produced at the margins might be worth more than a replacement player win. I never can remember the econ term ... looks like you're correct Kinsm .... but i don't believe it's near as far apart in value and cost as it appears. Maybe the term i'm looking for is Marginal Value ...you factor in the opportunity cost and in doing so it increases the value of players who produce at a high level.

In the end - not making the trade is still a silly thing to do ... unless you're rooting for the owners bottom line.

If you assume Senzel is just a league average player moving forward, obviously you make this trade. The people who are hesitant to make this trade, aren’t making this assumption.

For me, it comes down not to WAR or $$$ but banners. Which player will better help the Reds win the most championships. I’m not sure there’s an easy answer to that question.

[Wonderful Monds]

Biggest hang up for me on this one, if you’re trading Senzel for Lindor, you’re basically making the next 2 years all or nothing. I generally think the team is heading in the right direction, but I don’t know if they’re at the point where they should put everything on 2020-21. If you trade Senzel for Lindor, there is almost certainly going to be another rebuilding period after Lindor leaves, because I do not see them signing him to the 300 million dollar contract he’s going to get. We also have no one else in the pipeline who has the potential to be the lineup cornerstone that Senzel goes.

The more I think about it, the more I’m pretty adamantly opposed to a Senzel-Lindor deal.

[Kinsm]

People keep saying Senzel 5 years....he's actually team controlled for 6 years (his age 25 through age 30 season).

I have no problem moving Senzel, since the Reds in all their wisdom have decided to block him from playing where he should be playing. But the Reds had better be finding a CF'er....and these new players had better be around for more than 1 or 2 years. If not we could see the Reds having another quarter century of futility.

[Fil3232]

You’ve got three years to find and/or develop Senzel’s replacement. And honestly, the jury is out on what Senzel will be. He’s only 2 years younger than Lindor, which is wild. Make the trade, grab the premier 2-way shortstop, and figure everything else out as it comes.

[Kinsm]

You’ve got three years to find and/or develop Senzel’s replacement. And honestly, the jury is out on what Senzel will be. He’s only 2 years younger than Lindor, which is wild. Make the trade, grab the premier 2-way shortstop, and figure everything else out as it comes.

You have 4 months.

[Kinsm]

And you have 22 months to find Lindor's replacement (and whomever else you trade in the deal).

[Cooper]

If Nick Senzel is your future and the foundation of the team for next 6 years ... you don't play him in CF. You dont make him learn a new position in 2 weeks. The FO has done nothing to maximize his potential and help him establish himself.

[Mitri]

And you have 22 months to find Lindor's replacement (and whomever else you trade in the deal).

Garcia. Or some other guy. And it’s more like 27 months, which is a long time from today.

[Kinsm]

If Nick Senzel is your future and the foundation of the team for next 6 years ... you don't play him in CF. You dont make him learn a new position in 2 weeks. The FO has done nothing to maximize his potential and help him establish himself.

Agreed, that's why I said I don't care if they trade him. But it had better be for a player who is going to be part of this team for than a couple of years.

[Red X]

I don’t think anyone is arguing which is better, it’s clearly Lindor and likely will always be Lindor. The question is what’s better having Lindor for 2 years or Senzel for 6. And it’s not just about Senzel because he won’t be the only future piece that goes.

With Lindor you chase for 2 years and then, depending on the pieces of this deal, could be really set back and in another rebuild mode. To me you only go get a guy like Lindor if you know he’s the guy that puts you over the top. Lindor doesn’t put this current Reds team over the top. You move Senzel your OF right now is Aquino Winker and Ervin/Jankowski. Could the Reds sign someone? Sure maybe depends on the money they have left. There isn’t any real CF out there unless you trade for someone and then we get into diving into the prospect pool again.

It just all comes down to what futures are in the deal for me some of these rumored deals are to rich. I’d rather have a steady flow of good prospects hitting the Reds and keeping them relevant then 2 years and done. If you think about it would we even have him for 2 years? Or would we be looking to move him next trade deadline or even in the summer because the Reds don’t want him to walk for nothing?

[Mitri]

Two seasons is enough for me, especially if it’s his prime years at half the market rate.

[Fil3232]

You have 4 months.

If they get Lindor, I’m cool finding a platoon of Defense-oriented CFs + Aquino every few days. Just go get Lindor.

[Kurt Stillwell]

I’m less concerned with the years of control for Senzel and more concerned with his ceiling.

I can absolutely guarantee you that it doesn't come close to Lindors...

[Red X]

If Nick Senzel is your future and the foundation of the team for next 6 years ... you don't play him in CF. You dont make him learn a new position in 2 weeks. The FO has done nothing to maximize his potential and help him establish himself.

Why?

Players move around all the time. They find ways into the line up and then defensively they get moved around to figure that out. This is a silly theory in my eyes. Senzel was/is above average in the IF and a league average CF right now and he’s still learning. Senzel was drafted not because of that but because he can hit that’s his value. He’s a young athlete who can currently play anywhere. He very well could move back into the IF in a few seasons. It wouldn’t be that big of a deal. You find a way to get good bats into the lineup. The Reds did it doesn’t diminish Senzel as a prospect.