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View Poll Results: #11 on the Farm?!

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47. You may not vote on this poll
  • 2B Jose Acosta

    2 4.26%
  • RHSP Jose De Leon

    9 19.15%
  • OF T.J. Friedl

    7 14.89%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    2 4.26%
  • RHRP Ryan Hendrix

    0 0%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    17 36.17%
  • RHRP Joel Kuhnel

    9 19.15%
  • CF Jose Siri

    1 2.13%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    0 0%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

  1. #46
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I see a lot of bold claims being thrown around based on a set of data that is known to be wildly unreliable. That's the part I am pushing back against.
    What bold claims have been thrown around?

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  3. #47
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    What bold claims have been thrown around?
    He might not be a star, but he's obviously got some pop. And some kind of eye at the plate. And some speed. And an idea of what he wants to do with the ball.
    We know his upside because we've seen his upside. And it's pretty spectacular.
    You know more about Acosta-- due to his stat line in a professional league-- than you do about Hinds.
    It's hard to overstate how exceptional his season was. No matter what level he did it at, that takes a boatload of ability.
    I'm looking for ceiling, and I don't see anyone on this board with one higher than Acosta's if his offensive skills move forward.
    19, live bat, good eye, plus speed.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  5. #48
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    These are not outlandish nor are they bold.

    They are observable fact, as evidenced by the line he produced.

    To say he had a spectacular line is not hyperbole. To say that he dominated the league (as evidenced by his 200(!) wRC+ and showed massive upside isn't hyperbole. To say that he has upside (again, based on his line), a good eye, decent pop, good speed is not hyperbole.

    There should be no push-back on these statements, but hey, this is RedsZone. If there's a constant, it's that someone is going to argue.

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  7. #49
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    These are not outlandish nor are they bold.

    They are observable fact, as evidenced by the line he produced.

    To say he had a spectacular line is not hyperbole. To say that he dominated the league (as evidenced by his 200(!) wRC+ and showed massive upside isn't hyperbole. To say that he has upside (again, based on his line), a good eye, decent pop, good speed is not hyperbole.

    There should be no push-back on these statements, but hey, this is RedsZone. If there's a constant, it's that someone is going to argue.
    A spectacular line and dominated the league are observable facts you can infer from a stat line. Nobody is pushing back on those statements. They are fact. The points I quoted aren't questioning his line being spectacular or the fact he dominated the league, I agree with those.

    In no way can you infer anything about someones projectable skill set or upside from a DSL stat line as a 19 year old. That is the reason for the pushback. Making claims about his upside and skill set from a DSL statline is outlandish and bold.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  9. #50
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    In what world is it anything but baseline description to say Acosta is 19, live bat, good eye, plus speed?

    If you're arguing with that, then you're just arguing for the sake of argument.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  10. #51
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    A spectacular line and dominated the league are observable facts you can infer from a stat line. Nobody is pushing back on those statements. They are fact. The points I quoted aren't questioning his line being spectacular or the fact he dominated the league, I agree with those.

    In no way can you infer anything about someones projectable skill set or upside from a DSL stat line as a 19 year old. That is the reason for the pushback. Making claims about his upside and skill set from a DSL statline is outlandish and bold.
    Nope. That is not bold in the least.

    He hit .400 in a league wherein the average hitter owned a .247 BA. That indicates a good hit tool. That is not some kind of voodoo magic nor is there some kind of logical leap in extrapolation. Ditto his stolen base total and caught stealing rate (26/1 last year combined with a 12/3 the season before). It would be remarkably illogical to assume Acosta does not have good speed. He obviously has good patience-- his BB percentage across two seasons is right at 15%, and his OBP was 100 points higher than his BA. Combined with his 17.4% K rate, and you've got a guy who exhibited a solid understanding of the strike zone. (His BB/K rate was almost 1:1.)

    Speaking of numbers, we make scouting report and upside inferences with international free agents, high school guys, collegiate players, juco guys, and minor league ballplayers literally every year.

    We look at their production. We infer tools. We guess at upside.

    There is an entire cottage industry of guys with advanced math and computer degrees who make projections based on these numbers. (Acosta's Steamer projection at the major league level is .172/ .212/ .229/ .194 for an 11 wRC+. Ivan Johnson profiles as about 10% worse. Tyler Callihan profiles as about 10% worse. Rece Hinds didn't get enough ABs to have a projection.)

    This is not a bold claim. It is business as usual.

  11. #52
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Nope. That is not bold in the least.

    He hit .400 in a league wherein the average hitter owned a .247 BA. That indicates a good hit tool. That is not some kind of voodoo magic nor is there some kind of logical leap in extrapolation. Ditto his stolen base total and caught stealing rate (26/1 last year combined with a 12/3 the season before). It would be remarkably illogical to assume Acosta does not have good speed. He obviously has good patience-- his BB percentage across two seasons is right at 15%, and his OBP was 100 points higher than his BA. Combined with his 17.4% K rate, and you've got a guy who exhibited a solid understanding of the strike zone. (His BB/K rate was almost 1:1.)

    Speaking of numbers, we make scouting report and upside inferences with international free agents, high school guys, collegiate players, juco guys, and minor league ballplayers literally every year.

    We look at their production. We infer tools. We guess at upside.

    There is an entire cottage industry of guys with advanced math and computer degrees who make projections based on these numbers. (Acosta's Steamer projection at the major league level is .172/ .212/ .229/ .194 for an 11 wRC+. Ivan Johnson profiles as about 10% worse. Tyler Callihan profiles as about 10% worse. Rece Hinds didn't get enough ABs to have a projection.)

    This is not a bold claim. It is business as usual.
    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    In what world is it anything but baseline description to say Acosta is 19, live bat, good eye, plus speed?

    If you're arguing with that, then you're just arguing for the sake of argument.
    Here are my questions that can't be answered from solely relying on a DSL stat line. At least from using numbers for the upper minor league levels (A ball upward) you can start to infer some things because we have a good consensus on the general talent level a player is going against. The gap from DSL to A ball is like going from a good high school team to a D1 team.

    Hit tool/Live Bat:
    -Is he hitting the ball hard or is he collecting a lot of hits because of his speed?
    -He had a .491 BABIP, is that generally a product of speed or hitting rockets?
    -Is his speed primarily driving the extra base hits or is he showing legit pop
    -Can he hit off-speed and velocity or is he primarily beating up on DSL lollipop fastballs
    -Does he have holes in his swing that need to be addressed?
    -If he is such a good bat, why is he striking out 17% of the time against mostly raw, younger pitching?

    Eye:
    -Does he have a good eye, or is he just exhibiting patience and looking for his pitch, DSL pitchers are awful compared to the rest of professional ball, I imagine it is pretty easy to walk if you aren't aggressive. Notice the walk rate plummeted in the AZL.
    -Does he recognize spin and does he handle off-speed well?
    -Does he really show a knowledge of the strike zone, taking pitches that aren't close is a lot different than laying off off-speed just out of the zone.

    Speed:
    -How fast is he?
    -Is it legit stolen base speed or is above average speed but mostly able to get good reads/jumps off poor pitcher/catcher combos?
    -Is he expected to bulk up, fill out, and lose that speed?

    Body:
    -Does he project to grow any further?
    -Is he a "twitchy" athlete?

    All of these are important evaluation questions yet also things we cannot answer from a DSL statline. The difference between most international free agents, high school guys, collegiate players, juco guys, and minor league ballplayers that we evaluate is we have enough material to make some solid judgments on these types of questions. We have little to go off of with Acosta.

    Any one of those people with advanced math and computer degrees are going to tell you that projecting a major league line based off DSL stats is a pointless exercise. The credibility of such a projection has to be incredibly low. Trying to compare Acosta, Johnson, Callihan, and Hinds off of these projections is pointless. Sure, it is fun to look at, but it is impossible to predict the actual development of a player based on the inputs that go into those projections.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-30-2019 at 02:21 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  12. #53
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Your questions can almost entirely be answered by looking at his numbers.

    Does he have a good hit tool, as professed by M2? Well, he hit .400 in the DSL and had a .200 wRC+ in the league. He also, fwiw, hit .375 in the AZL Rookie League. So far, the answer is yes.

    Does he have good speed? 26 SB in 53 games. I mean, maybe he's lucky, but does that make sense? Maybe he's really, really advanced in terms of baseball IQ. Again, Occam's Razor says that's a no-go.

    And that's, really, the issue here. You seem to be grasping at straws to explain away his numbers, while the most obvious answer is in front of you.

    Acosta's numbers tell us that:

    1. He had a really good season.

    2. He has some intriguing tools he developed over two Rookie Level teams.

    That's enough to vote him in the middle of the teens in a system nearly devoid of upside.

  13. #54
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Your questions can almost entirely be answered by looking at his numbers.

    Does he have a good hit tool, as professed by M2? Well, he hit .400 in the DSL and had a .200 wRC+ in the league. He also, fwiw, hit .375 in the AZL Rookie League. So far, the answer is yes.

    Does he have good speed? 26 SB in 53 games. I mean, maybe he's lucky, but does that make sense? Maybe he's really, really advanced in terms of baseball IQ. Again, Occam's Razor says that's a no-go.

    And that's, really, the issue here. You seem to be grasping at straws to explain away his numbers, while the most obvious answer is in front of you.

    Acosta's numbers tell us that:

    1. He had a really good season.

    2. He has some intriguing tools he developed over two Rookie Level teams.

    That's enough to vote him in the middle of the teens in a system nearly devoid of upside.
    If my questions can be answered from his numbers, then answer them. It is probably safe to infer he has some pretty good speed. That's about it.

    I haven't attempted to explain away any of his numbers, that is what you are doing. You have dug in your heels that Acosta's numbers make him some super upside player, yet you ignore all the issues brought up in making that inference. All I am doing is pointing out we have no idea what his numbers really mean because we know nothing about him aside from his DSL numbers. And DSL numbers can be super sketchy. He could be a total mirage or he could have legit talent and upside, but we have no way of knowing either way right now. If I see some positive scouting reports from trusted guys that have seen him play, I'll be jumping on that bandwagon ASAP.

    He probably does have good speed, but if he does then you have to question how meaningful those offensive numbers are due to a .491 BABIP. You seem to want to accept the fact he is fast, but also a while ignoring the impact his speed probably has on his offensive numbers against terrible defenses. Guys that are really fast and can make contact, even if weaker contact, can put up good numbers against a bad defense.

    Your interpretation of his numbers providing a bunch of meaningful information is similar to people who walk up to a roulette table and see a bunch of reds in the recent spins so there must be a black coming.

    1. He had a great season
    2. We still know next to nothing about his tools
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-30-2019 at 03:07 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  14. #55
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    He. Hit. .400.

    In a league where the average player his less than .250.

    Even if he's Usain Friggin' Bolt, he can still hit at a near .400 level over the course of 250-ish ABs.

    That spells a pretty good hit tool.

    Note too that I'm not saying he's the number one prospect in the system despite your goal-posting. We're down around 10 here. (I voted for him at 13, fwiw.)

    I'm saying he has upside, as evidenced by his performance.

    You're (now) saying that he had a great season, but it was all luck.

  15. #56
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    He. Hit. .400.
    If Acosta were truly this great talent I tend to think he would have hit better than .199/.321/.284 in the same league a year earlier.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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  17. #57
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    If Acosta were truly this great talent I tend to think he would have hit better than .199/.321/.284 in the same league a year earlier.
    Again, not a great talent.

    Good talent. Big upside. Of interest. 13th ranked in a weak system. (By me.)

    As for real talent, meh. Sometimes it takes awhile. Swing changes are real.

    So is the understanding of what it takes to be successful or confidence.

  18. #58
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, not a great talent.

    Good talent. Big upside. Of interest. 13th ranked in a weak system. (By me.)

    As for real talent, meh. Sometimes it takes awhile. Swing changes are real.

    So is the understanding of what it takes to be successful or confidence.
    Just seems like a huge reach. M2 is a good campaigner though, he usually gets a few guys pushed up the board each year by sheer will.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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  20. #59
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I'm saying he has upside, as evidenced by his performance.

    You're (now) saying that he had a great season, but it was all luck.
    Please point out anywhere I have said that. All I have stated, perhaps you aren't reading my posts, is we don't have any clue how to evaluate the meaning behind his season. Although when anyone carries a .491 BABIP we know at least a portion of that is luck. Heck, I even just said
    He could be a total mirage or he could have legit talent and upside, but we have no way of knowing either way right now.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-30-2019 at 03:51 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  21. #60
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    If Acosta were truly this great talent I tend to think he would have hit better than .199/.321/.284 in the same league a year earlier.
    And been moved up from the DSL to the AZL much sooner, maybe even on to low A or at least Greenville around the rest of the 19 year old draftees.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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