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View Poll Results: #11 on the Farm?!

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47. You may not vote on this poll
  • 2B Jose Acosta

    2 4.26%
  • RHSP Jose De Leon

    9 19.15%
  • OF T.J. Friedl

    7 14.89%
  • CF Jameson Hannah

    2 4.26%
  • RHRP Ryan Hendrix

    0 0%
  • 3B Rece Hinds

    17 36.17%
  • RHRP Joel Kuhnel

    9 19.15%
  • CF Jose Siri

    1 2.13%
  • Other - Specify in Comments

    0 0%
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Thread: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

  1. #31
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    All good players, but it doesn't change the fact there are a lot more failures out of this league then successes. IMO it is a tick above high school, that doesn't scream professional league to me.
    There are a lot more failures than successes out of every league.

    Were this a glorified high school league, guys like Bogaerts, Martinez, Arcia, Margot, et al., wouldn't play in it, or they'd put up softball-like number (like their counterparts do in high school).

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  4. #32
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    You literally know nothing his upside because nobody has seen him play. It’s laughable to call it spectacular.

    Put him in the late 20’s. He should be nowhere near Rece Hinds. If he was truly that impressive he would have been moved up a lot quicker. There’s a much higher chance of Kuhnel become a shut down late inning reliever than Acosta becoming an MLB bench player.
    400/ 500/ 600 isn't spectacular?

    C'mon.

    A 200 wRC+ isn't spectacular?

    Please.

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  6. #33
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    My bad. I got Lupo (who was not close to Acosta's BA) and Nunez (who was close but under in OBP) mixed up.

    Nunez is the only one close to Acosta's numbers.

    The rest of them you fudged.

    I get it. I do. It's hard to find someone who goes 400/ 500/ 600 in any league.

    - - - Updated - - -



    So?
    I didn't fudge any numbers. I used wRC+, which is what I stated in my post. It is hard to find, but when it happens in the DSL by a 19 year old that we know nothing about it isn't indicative of anything in terms of future success.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    400/ 500/ 600 isn't spectacular?

    C'mon.

    A 200 wRC+ isn't spectacular?

    Please.
    He had an all time great season in the DSL, one of the best ever. Those numbers tell us nothing about his [B]upside[B]. Which is what I said was laughable to call spectacular since we literally know nothing else about Acosta, and DSL stats tell us nothing about a players upside.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-28-2019 at 04:15 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  7. #34
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I didn't fudge any numbers. I used wRC+, which is what I stated in my post. It is hard to find, but when it happens in the DSL by a 19 year old that we know nothing about it isn't indicative of anything in terms of future success.
    His numbers were a 400/ 500/ 600 season AND a 200 wRC+.

    And they're hard to find because he's the only one who's done it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Those numbers tell us nothing about his upside. Which is what I said was laughable to call spectacular since we literally know nothing else about Acosta.
    We disagree, obviously.

    And that's probably where this should end, honestly. I can't even convince you that Acosta had a great season last year in the DSL, and there's no way you can convince me that what he did wasn't spectacularly dominant.

  8. #35
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    His numbers were a 400/ 500/ 600 season AND a 200 wRC+.

    And they're hard to find because he's the only one who's done it.



    We disagree, obviously.

    And that's probably where this should end, honestly. I can't even convince you that Acosta had a great season last year in the DSL, and there's no way you can convince me that what he did wasn't spectacularly dominant.
    Yes he is the only .400/.500/.600 200wRC+ season I can find. But you stated
    The Reds have been in the DSL since 2006 and no one's put up a season remotely close to what Acosta did.
    Which is untrue as I showed others who have put up other seasons of similar value depending on various stats. Nobody covers the .400/.500/.600 qualifier, but that doesn't mean a .415/.497/.774 is somehow worse because of 3 points of OBP.

    I've never said his season wasn't spectacular by DSL standards. I was actually updating my post to clarify as much before you replied. It was crazy good, possibly the best year of all time in the DSL but I would give that to Nunez in 2018. The fact of the matter is still that DSL stats are about as reliable as video game stats. And that is your only basis for anything related to Acosta, which your then using as justification not make untrue claims in comparison to other guys. He's certainly a guy I'll be keeping an eye on this year, similarly to the Debby Santana hype a few years ago.

    Scouting and no stats > DSL Stats with no scouting.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-28-2019 at 04:37 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  9. #36
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    He's certainly a guy I'll be keeping an eye on this year, similarly to the Debby Santana hype a few years ago.
    Santana in 2017 flashed something to build on. Acosta in 2019 dominated the league, showing BA, OB, gap power and speed. I'm looking for ceiling, and I don't see anyone on this board with one higher than Acosta's if his offensive skills move forward.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  10. #37
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Santana in 2017 flashed something to build on. Acosta in 2019 dominated the league, showing BA, OB, gap power and speed. I'm looking for ceiling, and I don't see anyone on this board with one higher than Acosta's if his offensive skills move forward.
    Santana did that as a 16 year old. Acosta did it as a 19 year old. It’s hard to state the potential differences in development/bodies between a 16 year old and a 19 year old.

    The issue I have with referring to Acosta’s ceiling is that we know nothing about it. We do know he can dominate competition that is generally below his age, which is definitely better than not doing so. But we know nothing about his projectability and room for development going forward. We don’t even know his 60 time or if his speed is expected to stay as he gets older. At least with a guy like Hinds we know he has the body/athleticism to allow for major development/upside. The unknown is whether or not he hits that. Acosta could be physically maxed out and essentially be at his peak.

    I’d recommended reading some scouting reports and feedback on Malcom Nunez from before the 2019 season. I learned a lot about the DSL from following him.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  11. #38
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Santana did that as a 16 year old. Acosta did it as a 19 year old. It’s hard to state the potential differences in development/bodies between a 16 year old and a 19 year old.

    The issue I have with referring to Acosta’s ceiling is that we know nothing about it. We do know he can dominate competition that is generally below his age, which is definitely better than not doing so. But we know nothing about his projectability and room for development going forward. We don’t even know his 60 time or if his speed is expected to stay as he gets older. At least with a guy like Hinds we know he has the body/athleticism to allow for major development/upside. The unknown is whether or not he hits that. Acosta could be physically maxed out and essentially be at his peak.

    I’d recommended reading some scouting reports and feedback on Malcom Nunez from before the 2019 season. I learned a lot about the DSL from following him.
    Hinds also could go on to have a K.J. Franklin type of career. All we know with Hinds is he got drafted and paid a bonus. He's almost all unknown. We have no idea how he's going to fare in professional baseball. His tools might not translate in the least. Meanwhile Acosta has demonstrated BA, OB, gap power and speed.

    Malcolm Nunez is a stocky, slow player. Acosta's nothing like him.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  12. #39
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Hinds also could go on to have a K.J. Franklin type of career. All we know with Hinds is he got drafted and paid a bonus. He's almost all unknown. We have no idea how he's going to fare in professional baseball. His tools might not translate in the least. Meanwhile Acosta has demonstrated BA, OB, gap power and speed.

    Malcolm Nunez is a stocky, slow player. Acosta's nothing like him.
    Look, I can easily be convinced on Acosta if there is more information about the player other than his DSL statline. I have searched and searched and can't find anything. You seem to know more about him than the numbers themselves, so I will gladly read up on him. I can't find anything on his body type, I can't even find a picture let alone video. At least you can watch videos and get scouting reports of Hinds playing against quality high school competition on the showcase circuit. Hinds is much more of a known than Acosta. At least we know the type of player Hinds is, and what he will likely need to develop and improve upon to grow into a major leaguer.

    I don't know how we know Acosta has exhibited gap power. He hit 17 doubles and 5 triples, but if he is fast, those could easily be Billy Hamilton type XBH against DSL defenses. If he is in fact very fast, those offensive numbers could be vastly inflated since DSL defenses are bad. The thing is, we don't even know if he is really fast, we can guess based on a 24/0 SB/CS ratio, but that is against terrible defensive catchers and pitchers who probably stink at holding runners.

    The only thing we know about Acosta is he went .400/.500/.600 with a .491 BABIP. We can't even evaluate the meaning of those numbers because there is literally no information on him. Drawing conclusions from numbers from a league in which we know the numbers carry little meaning and are wildly volatile is an exercise in futility. Sure, we can't and shouldn't completely discredit that kind of performance, but we also can't give full credibility to those numbers. And we are all clueless as to how much credibility to give them.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-29-2019 at 04:06 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  14. #40
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    19, live bat, good eye, plus speed. Doesn't seem like a tricky profile ... especially in a system as shallow as the Reds'.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  15. #41
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    19, live bat, good eye, plus speed. Doesn't seem like a tricky profile ... especially in a system as shallow as the Reds'.
    Where did you find that scouting report?
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  16. #42
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Where did you find that scouting report?
    It's right there in his numbers. In fact, it practically smacks you in the face.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  17. #43
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's right there in his numbers. In fact, it practically smacks you in the face.
    Drawing a scouting report from strictly numbers, especially DSL numbers, is a futile exercise. I suppose Josh Rojas, Trent Grisham, and Jake Cronenworth are future MVP candidates? Maybe even Mark Payton too.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-29-2019 at 07:58 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  19. #44
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Drawing a scouting report from strictly numbers, especially DSL numbers, is a futile exercise. I suppose Josh Rojas, Trent Grisham, and Jake Cronenworth are future MVP candidates? Maybe even Mark Payton too.
    We are currently looking at a pile of wannabe relievers and unappealing bats. I am EXTREMELY comfortable going with a kid who put a broad range of skills into action with spectacular effect.

    You're acting like we're talking about the #1 overall guy when we're in the teens in a paper thin system. We've already made a bunch of picks based on vapor and fond wishes.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  20. #45
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    Re: 2019-2020: Who is the Reds #11 Prospect???

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    We are currently looking at a pile of wannabe relievers and unappealing bats. I am EXTREMELY comfortable going with a kid who put a broad range of skills into action with spectacular effect.

    You're acting like we're talking about the #1 overall guy when we're in the teens in a paper thin system. We've already made a bunch of picks based on vapor and fond wishes.
    Look I am fine if people want to select him, that's not my complaint at all, we are getting to the thin part where anyone can argue for about 15 players. But let's be honest about what we know about Acosta so far, which is very little. I see a lot of bold claims being thrown around based on a set of data that is known to be wildly unreliable. That's the part I am pushing back against.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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