2020 Votto Stat Predictions

[Ironman92]

List any or all you want

Games... 148
Runs .... 76
Doubles ... 28
HR .... 22
RBI.... 72
BB..... 84
Strikeouts... 121
Average... .277
OB%.... .368
Slug % ..... .435
OPS ..... .803

WAR 1.8

[RedsManRick]

For posterity, the Steamer projection from Fangraphs:

G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
150	670	23	92	76	4	14.5%	18.5%	.181	.307	.269	.382	.451	.356	117	-4.0	10.7	-12.5	1.9

The power seems generous given the last two years, but it seems to me that his whole line is basically dependent on it. The walks and power will go hand in hand. If he's putting up a .180 ISO, I think he's walking more than 14.5% of the time. I just don't see the .181 ISO.

[GADawg]

i need to know which stance/approach he'd decided to use first....seriously I'd take either of the above results along with a hopefully improved lineup

[Redsfan08]

Games 135
HRs I hate to do this but I will say 8
AVG. I think he gives it everything he has this year like we have never seen and gets 301.
RBIs 71
Still has a good amount of walks due to the work he put in for hitting
Doubles 31
All in all it's a good season it's just the destruction of his body before our very eyes this season.

[MikeS21]

I'll play ... but I'm not too optimistic:

Games ... 125
HR ... 10
BB ... 60
Strikeouts ... 130
Average ... .275
OB% ... .325
Slug % ... .375
OPS ... .700
OPS+ ... 90-93
WAR ... 1.0

Unless Votto can prove that he can still carry a decent BABIP, or show an ability to still belt the ball over the outfield wall, the walks are going to drop like a lead balloon. He may have the best eye in baseball, but if he doesn't give pitchers a reason to pitch to him out of the strike zone, it won't do him any good.

And it's not going to help his stats at all if he's still in mid-May trying to figure things out. The Reds need him to be better than 2018-2019 Joey Votto for the entire season ... not just the half of the season.

[Crumbley]

.280/.370/.450 in 125 games

[Ironman92]

Keep em coming

[allpurpose]

I don't have any particular predictions about Joey, but I will say that if he has his usual horrible start to the season hitting sub .150 he may find himself on the outside looking in and a very expensive bench piece. His contract and salary makes him untradable and despite being arguably the best hitter of his generation it'll be untenable to keep him in the #2 hole all season if he's hitting below rookie ball level. I'd love to see him have his best season in the past ten years, but I fear that horse left the barn, broke its leg and got shot awhile back.

[RedsManRick]

140 games, .280/.400/.440, 2 WAR

[cumberlandreds]

162 Games .500/.500/.500 25 WAR

[Tracy Jones]

140 games, .280/.400/.440, 2 WAR

Rick an optimist? Who hacked his account?

All kidding aside, if he puts up an .840 OPS, he’ll likely blow past being a 2 win player, no?

[Bourgeois Zee]

I suspect he rebounds-- a bit. He'll hit for some power, and his patience will return.

But his days as the NL's best hitter are mostly behind him.

.275/ .374/ .454 with 18 HR and 35 doubles.

[BillDoran]

FWIW, his ISO the past two years have been .135 and .150. I'd be pretty surprised if he reached .150 again (provided he doesn't sell-out to hit for power).

.265/.340/.395

[RedsManRick]

Rick an optimist? Who hacked his account?

All kidding aside, if he puts up an .840 OPS, he’ll likely blow past being a 2 win player, no?

Not as a mediocre defender who doesn't run the bases well. I think he's something like a +15 run above average bat, -10 run defender (avg 1B), -5 run basebunner. That's +0 runs above average or roughly 2 WAR. If he plays 150+ games, that batting line would definitely produce more than a +15. So perhaps I'd drop the OBP 20 points or so. But the ballpark is right.

It's hard to find a great comp, but perhaps Luke Voit or Shin Soo Choo.

[DocRed]

I think Votto will realize that he needs to get on base more this year with the power bats in this lineup. So an uptick in his OBP (.398) and slight downtick in his SLG (.405). ends up .803 OPS. Also ave of .282. Plus he's gonna sacrifice his body for the sake of the team and log a career high 14 HBP!!