Iglesias: someone please answer...

[Roy Tucker]

anyone else think this thread was going to be about jose?

that was just me, wasn't it?

I thought it was about Julio.

[Tracy Jones]

Raisel is the best arm the Reds have in the pen, by far. And he has a relatively big contract. He’s not going anywhere. Ideally they’ll acquire another arm or two close to or exceeds his quality. Then it’ll be a playoff pen. Sorry, but the current in house options aren’t gonna cut it.

[Kc61]

Iglesias has become a FB pitcher when he used to be more GB oriented. That's something that stabilizes very quickly (around 40 IP). There's reason to suspect he's going to allow more HR than he did back in 2017. But the rules of statistics don't simply change because it would be more convenient for us if they did. Part of what relievers so maddening is that their actual skill level can change faster than the data we have on their skill level becomes reliable. But we don't overcome that problem by pretending like it doesn't exist and that recent past is more predictive than it actually is.

Whether or not a sample is small is a function of the inherent amount of variability in the statistic -- which is itself a function of mechanism producing the data. That mechanism, pitching, is not especially different between starters and relievers such that relievers demonstrate true skill with a fraction of the innings that starters do.

I credit your explanation. But let’s step back. Whether or not “statistically significant” - two full years of high homer allowance is a red flag especially for a closer who is repeatedly in “close and late” situations.

Iggy may revert to an earlier norm but a GM can’t count on it. I’d work with Iggy - I’m sure DJ has tackled HR allowance before. I’d also hedge my bet with at least one new reliever expected to help in tough late inning spots.

[Powder River]

I credit your explanation. But let’s step back. Whether or not “statistically significant” - two full years of high homer allowance is a red flag especially for a closer who is repeatedly in “close and late” situations.

Iggy may revert to an earlier norm but a GM can’t count on it. I’d work with Iggy - I’m sure DJ has tackled HR allowance before. I’d also hedge my bet with at least one new reliever expected to help in tough late inning spots.

I agree with your take on the Iggy situation KC - not kicking him to the curb, but feeling some insurance would go a long way. With this in mind, who do the Reds realistically target? The names left on the free agent board don’t seem all that impressive. Is there a trade you like? A cheap starter who might be a candidate to move to the pen??

[Bob Sheed]

Raisel is the best arm the Reds have in the pen, by far. And he has a relatively big contract. He’s not going anywhere. Ideally they’ll acquire another arm or two close to or exceeds his quality. Then it’ll be a playoff pen. Sorry, but the current in house options aren’t gonna cut it.

He gets 5 million this season, then it doubles. It's this year or bust for the crybaby.

[RedsManRick]

I credit your explanation. But let’s step back. Whether or not “statistically significant” - two full years of high homer allowance is a red flag especially for a closer who is repeatedly in “close and late” situations.

Iggy may revert to an earlier norm but a GM can’t count on it. I’d work with Iggy - I’m sure DJ has tackled HR allowance before. I’d also hedge my bet with at least one new reliever expected to help in tough late inning spots.

Maybe we're in violent agreement. I never said the two years of homers weren't a red flag. What I have said is that we should be disciplined in the conclusion we reach. Simply asserting "two years" as if it were self-evidently significant doesn't make it any more significant than a SP who had a HR-friendly half season when it comes to predicting future HR tendencies.

I don't disagree that we should hedge against ongoing HR issues. But that's basically true of every reliever ever. They are volatile by nature of their job and how they arrived in it. Depth is wise. The question is one of tradeoffs. To what extent do you invest in the bullpen at the expense of other spots on the roster?

[Kc61]

Maybe we're in violent agreement. I never said the two years of homers weren't a red flag. What I have said is that we should be disciplined in the conclusion we reach. Simply asserting "two years" as if it were self-evidently significant doesn't make it any more significant than a SP who had a HR-friendly half season when it comes to predicting future HR tendencies.

I don't disagree that we should hedge against ongoing HR issues. But that's basically true of every reliever ever. They are volatile by nature of their job and how they arrived in it. Depth is wise. The question is one of tradeoffs. To what extent do you invest in the bullpen at the expense of other spots on the roster?

We are in agreement as to the conclusion that more bullpen depth is needed. Not sure we would agree as to the type and level of relievers to be added.

But I think my concern may be greater, iggy is a pitcher who with mileage and change of role has developed certain troubling tendencies. I’ve enjoyed the discussion, you make good points.

[Wheelhouse]

Raisel is the best arm the Reds have in the pen, by far. And he has a relatively big contract. He’s not going anywhere. Ideally they’ll acquire another arm or two close to or exceeds his quality. Then it’ll be a playoff pen. Sorry, but the current in house options aren’t gonna cut it.

So, you honestly think it's okay to spend Reds record setting amounts of money, and have it all ride on a childish, grip-it-and-rip-it closer whom the league seems to have figured out?

[REDREAD]

Raisel is the best arm the Reds have in the pen, by far. And he has a relatively big contract. He’s not going anywhere. Ideally they’ll acquire another arm or two close to or exceeds his quality. Then it’ll be a playoff pen. Sorry, but the current in house options aren’t gonna cut it.

I think I would disagree with Rasiel being the best arm in the pen.. He's the 3rd best arm in the pen.
Garrett and Lorenzen are ahead of him.
But yea, more help is needed in the pen for sure.

[allpurpose]

He gave up less than a hit per inning, fanned 89 in 67 innings, only walked 21....good numbers in line with his career numbers. The 12 homers were the fly in the ointment. I tend to see homers allowed as a very volatile stat that tends to yoyo up and down season to season, especially for relievers where a few homers skews the pct because they throw such limited innings

This is a case where the losses dont equal ability. Raisel is a massive bounceback candidate and, imo, worth the risk to count on him.

Not to derail the thread, but fly in the ointment has an interesting story behind it. The story I'm familiar with is from the old Ford paint shops where painters paid for their mistakes by having to fix them on their own time UNLESS a bug landed in the wet paint in which case the company paid them to fix it. Back in those days things like TB were rampant to everyone kept a jar of ointment with them. (My grandfather always smelled like Vicks 44) Many painters collected dead flies from window sills and kept them in ointment jars..hence: a fly in your ointment.. I was told that story from an old bodyshop guy who once worked at Ford..

[Tracy Jones]

I think I would disagree with Rasiel being the best arm in the pen.. He's the 3rd best arm in the pen.
Garrett and Lorenzen are ahead of him.
But yea, more help is needed in the pen for sure.

From a pure talent standpoint? It’s Raisel, and it’s not close. Garret and Lorenzen aren’t terrible, but they really aren’t ideal late inning hammers either. If you want to quibble with his attitude or whatever that’s valid, but nobody else the Reds have comes close to the velocity and movement combo that Raisel has.

[SunDeck]

Not to derail the thread, but fly in the ointment has an interesting story behind it. The story I'm familiar with is from the old Ford paint shops where painters paid for their mistakes by having to fix them on their own time UNLESS a bug landed in the wet paint in which case the company paid them to fix it. Back in those days things like TB were rampant to everyone kept a jar of ointment with them. (My grandfather always smelled like Vicks 44) Many painters collected dead flies from window sills and kept them in ointment jars..hence: a fly in your ointment.. I was told that story from an old bodyshop guy who once worked at Ford..

It's not uncommon for sayings to be adapted with new meanings, so I don't doubt your history for the phrase. The origin appears to be Ecclesiastes 10:1.
https://biblehub.com/ecclesiastes/10-1.htm

And also, I think Iglesias pitching is basically fine, although his attitude kind of sucked.

[allpurpose]

It's not uncommon for sayings to be adapted with new meanings, so I don't doubt your history for the phrase. The origin appears to be Ecclesiastes 10:1.
https://biblehub.com/ecclesiastes/10-1.htm

And also, I think Iglesias pitching is basically fine, although his attitude kind of sucked.

Hmmm..Interesting. The guy who told the story vastly underpaid me as well so I'm perfectly open to the idea he's a liar. LOL

[BCubb2003]

Raisel has never been a Chapman or Dibble type, but relied on precision and wicked pitches. He’s always worked on the edge, and sometimes those wicked pitches just weren’t working.

[Kc61]

Raisel has never been a Chapman or Dibble type, but relied on precision and wicked pitches. He’s always worked on the edge, and sometimes those wicked pitches just weren’t working.

Could be something more afoot. Fangraphs shows two measures of “pitch values.”

First, its own measure. Iglesias’ fastball has gone from 8.1 to -2.5 to -4.1 over the past three seasons.

Second, the Pitch Info measure. Iglesias’ fastball has gone from 6.6 to 1.7 to 0.8 over the past three seasons.