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Thread: Iglesias: someone please answer...

  1. #16
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Quite honestly with analytics and mathematics it is not. The offense and the manager put him is way too many bad situations. And his extreme FB rate means nothing. Chapman had a high Fb rate. HR and FB rate are not related that is a huge myth. HRs come from bad pitches not anything else. Iglesias was league average. Everytime he gave up a run he basically lost and he got used way too much on the road in non
    Please stop making excuses for him along the lines of “shouldn’t have been used in tie games”, “shouldn’t have been used (insert excuse)”.


    He’s the highest paid reliever on the team and was supposed to be their lockdown stopper. There shouldn’t be a single situation that you wouldn’t be confident bringing him into. The Reds warned him that he would be used in more of a fireman role when he signed the contract, he agreed and took the money. And then he proceeded to visibly pout on the mound each and every time he didn’t get brought into a clean inning with a multi run lead.

    He’s talented but he better get his mindset right for this coming season. He probably burned every bit of fan patience he possibly could have last year.
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  4. #17
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    The offense and the manager put him is way too many bad situations. And his extreme FB rate means nothing.
    Can’t buy this. Guy throws over 70% fly balls and line drives pitching in NL Central and GABP - resulting in a 1.6 HR rate - and it’s the offense and the manager?

    Iglesias’ JOB is to pitch in “bad” situations and get the Reds out of them. And more grounders might help - they tend not be leave the stadium.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2019 at 07:34 AM.

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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Raisel’s HR problems are at least two years old. Since 2018 he’s been charged with 17 losses and 10 blown saves. His GB and HR rates both years were poor. If this is so easily correctable, why hasn’t it been fixed?

    The Reds cannot rely on Iggy without adding more late innings alternatives. Otherwise they risk the same result.
    Nowhere did I say “easily” correctable. Baseball is rarely easy. I just said that he has shown the ability to keep the ball in the yard in that past at an acceptable rate, so there is more than a little reason to expect it to be correctable via a tweak and possibly a little better luck.

  7. #19
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    For all of his problems, he’s our best bet likely to be the best Red’s reliever next season.


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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    Nowhere did I say “easily” correctable. Baseball is rarely easy. I just said that he has shown the ability to keep the ball in the yard in that past at an acceptable rate, so there is more than a little reason to expect it to be correctable via a tweak and possibly a little better luck.
    If I’m a GM, I don’t bank on 2017 stats and the hope for tweaks and luck.

    Iglesias has pitched in 134 ballgames since then, it’s mileage for a reliever, he’s a different pitcher now.

    Work with him, sure, but Reds must protect themselves with more relievers who can throw late innings. If there’s one lesson in MLB, it’s that you don’t rely on older, past performance and expect it to re-emerge.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2019 at 08:38 AM.

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  11. #21
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If there’s one lesson in MLB, it’s that you don’t rely on older, past performance and expect it to re-emerge.
    For relievers?

    Depends on the numbers.

    Small samples often mean the way fans gauge the effectiveness of relief arms is flawed from jump street.

  12. #22
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If I’m a GM, I don’t bank on 2017 stats and the hope for tweaks and luck.

    Iglesias has pitched in 134 ballgames since then, it’s mileage for a reliever, he’s a different pitcher now.

    Work with him, sure, but Reds must protect themselves with more relievers who can throw late innings. If there’s one lesson in MLB, it’s that you don’t rely on older, past performance and expect it to re-emerge.
    Whatever dude. No one is advocating against picking up more late inning bullpen options. I’m all for that if the price is right. I’m simply objecting to the idea that Iglesias is toast. Relievers bounce back from garbage years all the time. It happens literally every year. I can count on one hand the number of relievers that were absolutely dominant every year of their careers. Iglesias is still a dang good backend of the bullpen option.

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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    For relievers?

    Depends on the numbers.

    Small samples often mean the way fans gauge the effectiveness of relief arms is flawed from jump street.
    134 games in the last two years is not a small sample for Iglesias. His performance pattern is clear. And any GM would be taking a risk relying on his numbers from the 2016-17 period.

    The impact of a HR closer is huge. These late inning losses can rip the heart out of a team. IMO if the Reds don’t fortify the late inning pen they are risking any improvements they are otherwise making.

    Doesn’t mean they need to spend a fortune on relievers - but they can’t just rely on what they have.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2019 at 09:07 AM.

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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Zero View Post
    Whatever dude. No one is advocating against picking up more late inning bullpen options. I’m all for that if the price is right. I’m simply objecting to the idea that Iglesias is toast. Relievers bounce back from garbage years all the time. It happens literally every year. I can count on one hand the number of relievers that were absolutely dominant every year of their careers. Iglesias is still a dang good backend of the bullpen option.
    Iglesias is not toast, that would be an overstatement. But he is a high risk closer given his HR propensities. And if I’m GM, I’m taking steps to protect against that problem by adding at least one late inning alternative.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-27-2019 at 09:06 AM.

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  17. #25
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Quite honestly with analytics and mathematics it is not. The offense and the manager put him is way too many bad situations. And his extreme FB rate means nothing. Chapman had a high Fb rate. HR and FB rate are not related that is a huge myth. HRs come from bad pitches not anything else. Iglesias was league average. Everytime he gave up a run he basically lost and he got used way too much on the road in non
    Sure, if the team had better offense, there would have been less tie games and some one run leads that Inglesis was asked to protect might have been 2 run leads.. but the fact is, Iglesis stunk last year.
    Counting on him to bounce back is foolish. The Reds really need to bring in two solid relievers, and one should be an impact guy. This is probably just as important as adding offense to the OF.

    The way for a team to protect itself from reliever volatility is to bring in more quality depth for the bullpen. Since bullpens are so large now, it's ok for a contender to have one guy like Sims, Reed, etc for the mopup guy or "up and coming" but the Reds (as of today) just do not have enough quality relievers to get through 2020.
    Hopefully the Reds address this before the season starts.
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Some sample sizes are too big, especially for volatile relievers. Sometimes it’s better to look at a trend line than a lump sum. Is he still on the way down? Has he shown signs of a comeback?

    I wonder if the development and handling of relievers might be the next market inefficiency. Someone who discovers a reliable way to turn not-quite starters into effective relievers, let them go before they’re exposed, then replenish, will be rewarded.

  20. #27
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    134 games in the last two years is not a small sample for Iglesias. His performance pattern is clear. And any GM would be taking a risk relying on his numbers from the 2016-17 period.
    139 IP is a small sample.

    HR/9 is worrying, for sure. But it's hardly a "performance pattern".

  21. #28
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    139 IP is a small sample.

    HR/9 is worrying, for sure. But it's hardly a "performance pattern".
    I wouldn’t conflate starters and relievers this way. Starters mount up large numbers of innings. In measuring relief pitching stats, appearances should be more relevant. Iglesias worked 134 times in the last two years and allowed 24 home runs.

    That is not a small sample in context. The particular job of the reliever is to work often and short, and in that context, he’s been a home run machine over a full two year stint.

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  23. #29
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I wouldn’t conflate starters and relievers this way. Starters mount up large numbers of innings. In measuring relief pitching stats, appearances should be more relevant. Iglesias worked 134 times in the last two years and allowed 24 home runs.

    That is not a small sample in context. The particular job of the reliever is to work often and short, and in that context, he’s been a home run machine over a full two year stint.
    We disagree on innings, the statistics they produce, and their reliability.

    This is where I'm coming from.

    It says 1320 batters faced for HR rate.

    From another site, explained in simple English (so that I understood it):

    Contrary to original DIPS theory, home run rate isn’t very stable... Even with a good sample size (750 BF), the split-half correlations were only .34 or so. Seems like a full season isn’t a good measure of a pitcher’s HR/PA ability.

    HR/FB was very very unstable for pitchers. For batters, HR/FB stabilized pretty quickly. This suggests that the pitcher may be the one who gives up the fly ball, but the batter is the one who makes it leave the yard. So, if your favorite pitcher gave up a lot of HR/FB last year, fear not. Chances are he’ll be better next year.

    Relievers are hard to project because at the small sample sizes that relievers have in terms of batters faced, the stats used to describe pitchers are largely unreliable. This means that regression to the mean will take its toll on a reliever very quickly. Relievers who rely mostly on the strikeout are less likely to have this trouble.

  24. #30
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    Re: Iglesias: someone please answer...

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    We disagree on innings, the statistics they produce, and their reliability.

    This is where I'm coming from.

    It says 1320 batters faced for HR rate.

    From another site, explained in simple English (so that I understood it):
    I see that. But given Iglesias’ aversion to throwing grounders and his two-year track record of allowing homers, I would have little confidence that a turnaround is likely. Possible, yes, but if I were GM I’d protect with at least one additional back-end reliever.

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