2020 Bullpen

[cincinnati chili]

Of the free agent guys mentioned, the two who scare me the least are Harris and Stammen, because their walk rates are better than the others. Home run rate is much more prone to volatility in a new park, when a guy is a year older, and just due to random chance. If you bring on a guy like Cishek, the gamble might pay off, but you’d be counting on him to prevent homers at his historically good pace despite inevitable traffic. His walk rate the last 3 years has trended 2.6, 3.6, 4.1.

I guess I’d be fine with any of these guys at the right price. But I’d temper my expectations with all of them.

[Bourgeois Zee]

People are basing a lot on 3 appearances for 6 and a third innings last year. Reed and Sims are both nothing more than end of the roster gambles. I only want one of those on the roster.

Again, 33.2 IP in the majors since 2016.

Reed is Robert 2019 Stephenson with a left hand and better relief numbers.

At worst, he's a good LOOGY.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Of the free agent guys mentioned, the two who scare me the least are Harris and Stammen, because their walk rates are better than the others. Home run rate is much more prone to volatility in a new park, when a guy is a year older, and just due to random chance. If you bring on a guy like Cishek, the gamble might pay off, but you’d be counting on him to prevent homers at his historically good pace despite inevitable traffic. His walk rate the last 3 years has trended 2.6, 3.6, 4.1.

I guess I’d be fine with any of these guys at the right price. But I’d temper my expectations with all of them.

I'm looking for a guy who limits walks and is a groundball guy.

2018 Jared Hughes would be ideal. (2019 Jared Hughes, notsomuch.)

[mth123]

Again, 33.2 IP in the majors since 2016.

Reed is Robert 2019 Stephenson with a left hand and better relief numbers.

At worst, he's a good LOOGY.

33 innings spread over 4 years is basically no track record at all. 33 innings in one season doesn't really mean anything IMO. I think they need established relievers. If it takes 4 seasons to accumulate 33 innings, that isn't established. They have plenty of gambles already with one of Sims or Reed and the AAA shuttle guys. If they were tanking or far from contention, I'd be content with taking those gambles

[cincinnati chili]

I'm all for another arm (or two or three or four) to add to the bullpen. Depth is always welcome.


How would posters feel about Edwin Diaz from the Mets?

If he’s available (and that’s a big if, as I get the sense that the Mets GM isn’t ready to cut bait), I would take a chance on him, if our pitching coaches saw something correctable. I wouldn’t expect a return to 2018 level performance https://blogs.fangraphs.com/edwin-di...o-what-extent/

[mth123]

I'd be thrilled with Edwin Diaz. I doubt he's available. The guys I listed are ones I think they could realistically get.

[Kc61]

It makes little sense to be on the lookout for high-end relief arms when you're willing to give one up in Reed, mth.

Over his career (just 33.2 IP, so small samples abound), he's limited opposing batters to a .195/ .301/ .271/ .573 out of the pen. That's 23 hits in those 33.2 innings and a neat 1.87 ERA.

When healthy, Cody Reed's dominant in relief.

Reed is coming off injury with little major league relief experience. He’s a guy who can make the team, if healthy, but I’m not banking on him to replace Lorenzen or Iglesias if they falter.

If healthy, Reed can backup Garrett as second lefty out of the pen.

[cincinnati chili]

On Will Harris: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/...ree-agent.html

[Kc61]

Hughes, Hernandez and Peralta threw 125 relief innings and 133 appearances for Reds last year.

Even if one is happy with Reds current relievers, which I’m not, they clearly need to add in that area.

[Alpha Zero]

Hughes, Hernandez and Peralta threw 125 relief innings and 133 appearances for Reds last year.

Even if one is happy with Reds current relievers, which I’m not, they clearly need to add in that area.

Garrett, Lorenzen, and Iglesias are all decent late inning guys with solid track records, and DeLeon, Kuhnel, Reed, and Stephenson are intriguing options. But they do need at least one more really nice arm to solidify things out there and bump the “intriguing” guys down a slot. I think Will Harris fits the bill. Iglesias isn’t a perfect closer, but there isn’t anyone better on the FA market and I’m not going to give up a prospect haul for a closer. Sign Harris or Daniel Hudson and re-assess at the deadline.

[Mitri]

Harris would be excellent, but I’d be happy with Cishek or Stammen.

But I sense that our big bullpen addition may come via trade.

[Griffey012]

Go ahead and quote me, mark it down, whatever. If Cody Reed is healthy in 2020 he is going to be a major part of this bullpen by being borderline dominant in a late inning role.

[mth123]

Harris would be excellent, but I’d be happy with Cishek or Stammen.

But I sense that our big bullpen addition may come via trade.

Aquino for Giles. If the Reds need to throw in Sims, OK by me.

[mth123]

Go ahead and quote me, mark it down, whatever. If Cody Reed is healthy in 2020 he is going to be a major part of this bullpen by being borderline dominant in a late inning role.

Hope you are right and I don't think it would be a total surprise. I just wouldn't plan on these types of steps forward. Guy has 33 innings in relief over 4 seasons. That's almost the same as none at all IMO. If he's that good, he'll grab a role. No reason not to get somebody else in case this doesn't work out. There are 8 spots in this pen. I highly doubt we'll reach opening day confident that we have 8 trustworthy big league relievers even if they make an addition or two.

[Griffey012]

Hope you are right and I don't think it would be a total surprise. I just wouldn't plan on these types of steps forward. Guy has 33 innings in relief over 4 seasons. That's almost the same as none at all IMO. If he's that good, he'll grab a role. No reason not to get somebody else in case this doesn't work out. There are 8 spots in this pen. I highly doubt we'll reach opening day confident that we have 8 trustworthy big league relievers even if they make an addition or two.

If the guy had pitched 33 innings in 4 years, yeah that's a huge concern. But let's not act like he hasn't been throwing the ball in AAA/MLB. He has thrown 419 innings over the last 4 seasons. He was a full time starter in 2016. He did both in 2017, did both again in 2018. It wasn't until 2019 that he switched to reliever full time and he was very successful in AAA/MLB albeit limited innings at the MLB level. Even when he was up and down performance wise in 2017 and 2018, he still pitched very well in MLB relief. He is the poster child for failed starter with good stuff who seems comfortable in short stints out of the pen.

The fact I expect Reed to play a big role in the bullpen going forward also doesn't stop them from adding to the pen. But I'd hate for them to spend $$ or assets on a bullpen piece when there is a very good chance they have an in house option. I'd rather that money go elsewhere, say Chirinos or a SS upgrade. Make an acquisition early in the season if everyone flops.