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Thread: In your opinion...

  1. #46
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I'd trade Aquino for something. Puig in RF. Senzel in CF, Winker/Ervin in LF. Akiyama plays 2 times per week each in CF and RF with Puig and Senzel getting rest. Senzel plays 2B when Votto, Mousakas or Suarez rests (and Votto should rest once per week) with Moose moving around the IF and Akiyama getting more PT that way
    Bingo

    Aquino is going to be awful. If they want to win, they can’t count on him

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  3. #47
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Why is Aquino going to be awful?

    He was mashing, then got figured out, and he's had an entire offseason to adjust/counter.
    “Stop quoting laws to us. We carry swords." -Pompey

  4. #48
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: In your opinion...

    I think Aquino has a lot of upside potential. If the Reds weren't trying to win, he'd be one of the last two or three guys I'd want to deal. OTOH, he also has a lot of downside potential and on a team that pictures itself a play-off contender, I wouldn't want to count on him. Personally, I think Aquino's 2020 is going to look a lot like Freddy Galvis 2019. Low OBP with some notable power mixed in. Maybe 5 to 10 more HRs than Galvis, but a similar profile.

    Still that upside potential ought to get a pretty decent win now player from a team not ready to contend yet. My target would be Ken Giles.

    There are three power bats, maybe not as dreamy as Aquino, but probably not as much downside either, who are still on the market. Any of Castellanos, Osuna or Puig would suffice IMO. Puig is probably the cheapest, so he seems most likely.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  5. #49
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    Re: In your opinion...

    I keep thinking that surely the plan was not to seriously go into the year with Freddy Galvis as the the only shortstop option (and therefore likely starter) for this team. Then the sun rises on yet another day and I start to come to the realization that, dear lord, it just might end up being the plan.
    Last edited by membengal; 01-21-2020 at 09:35 AM.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

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  7. #50
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by allpurpose View Post
    I think they stand a very good chance of winning the division. If they win the division the WS is within grasp since the post season is a far shorter period to do well. Once it's post season it's any team's game. It usually depends on who gets hot in most cases. Occasionally it's one dominant team, but usually whoever's the hottest team at the time.
    Can the pitching hold up or do as well as last year? Will they strengthen the bullpen significantly and will hitting stay alive? Perhaps even one player will have the one super special season to make up for any weaknesses. There's a lot of moving parts and variables. Get the right combination at the right time and we might just be in baseball heaven again.. I'm personally hoping it happens. If not then oh well.. In the immortal words of myself, there's always the next season then.. I have the feeling it's our time once more...not that I've EVER looked at the Reds with rose colored glasses in the off season..Not me..never..except for every season.. Heck, maybe Bell will even have learned something from last year.
    I don't think they have much of any chance to win the division. I fully expect St. Louis, Milwaukee and Chicago to be just as good. I think Pittsburgh getting rid of Hurdle will help them quite a bit. The Reds were 16 games away from St. Louis. I don't think anything the Reds did so far makes up 16 games. Moustakas definitely doesn't make up 16 games - maybe 2-3 at most. I expect the Reds to be closer to last place than 1st in the division. I doubt they can make the playoffs.

  8. #51
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I keep thinking that surely the plan was not to seriously go into the year with Freddy Galvis as the the only shortstop option (and therefore likely starter) for this team. Then the sun rises on yet another day and I start to come to the realization that, dear lord, it just might end up being the plan.
    That said, they have had a productive Winter. There's still nine weeks to make more moves.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  9. #52
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    I don't think they have much of any chance to win the division. I fully expect St. Louis, Milwaukee and Chicago to be just as good. I think Pittsburgh getting rid of Hurdle will help them quite a bit. The Reds were 16 games away from St. Louis. I don't think anything the Reds did so far makes up 16 games. Moustakas definitely doesn't make up 16 games - maybe 2-3 at most. I expect the Reds to be closer to last place than 1st in the division. I doubt they can make the playoffs.
    I wouldn’t look at at catching up to 16 games, but looking at run differential. The Reds were close to an even run differential last year, and already project to be plus this year.

    They are currently closer to the Cards than you think. The Cards have basically lost Ozuna this year, and have done little else.


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  10. #53
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I wouldn’t look at at catching up to 16 games, but looking at run differential. The Reds were close to an even run differential last year, and already project to be plus this year.

    They are currently closer to the Cards than you think. The Cards have basically lost Ozuna this year, and have done little else.


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    We'll see where they're at around mid-July. Personally I don't care about run differential as it doesn't really mean a thing. The Reds had only a 13 run difference in run differential than the Brewers. The Brewers won 14 more games than the Reds. Why? Because the Brewers are most likely a better team then the Reds. It's about winning ball games not creating a great run differential. The Red's run differential in 2019 doesn't mean a thing in 2020.

  11. #54
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    That said, they have had a productive Winter. There's still nine weeks to make more moves.
    I guess. It's been an ok winter, but nothing they have done has been a "going for it move". As things stand, they look good for .500, give or take a few games. They needed to make one more big move for a corner bat or a legit SS and so far...nothing.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

  12. #55
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by matt2112 View Post
    We'll see where they're at around mid-July. Personally I don't care about run differential as it doesn't really mean a thing. The Reds had only a 13 run difference in run differential than the Brewers. The Brewers won 14 more games than the Reds. Why? Because the Brewers are most likely a better team then the Reds. It's about winning ball games not creating a great run differential. The Red's run differential in 2019 doesn't mean a thing in 2020.
    Past history will suggest you are wrong.

    You create more wins by scoring more runs and giving up less. That leads to more wins.

    The Brewers likely won 14 more games than the Reds because they were more lucky in run distribution.

    History tells us that teams do no and cannot over achieve their expected wins based on run differential year after year.

    The Reds were a better team than they showed last year.

    History shows us that teams that suddenly win more games than expected one year often had a very poor record on 1-run games the year before. And teams that suddenly lose more games often had a very good record in 1-run games the year before.

    Creating wins is based on creating more runs than you give up.

    You can't win without scoring more runs than your opponent.

    While there is often an isolated exception every year, there is a huge correlation between the teams that make the playoffs and create the best run differential. And those isolated exceptions are almost never repeated by the same team.

    Edit: There were 15 teams last year with a positive run differential in the major leagues. Those 15 teams had the best 15 records in MLB. Not one team in MLB had a positive run differential and a losing record. Not one team in MLB had a negative run differential and a winning record.
    Last edited by PuffyPig; 01-23-2020 at 12:34 PM.

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  14. #56
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    I guess. It's been an ok winter, but nothing they have done has been a "going for it move". As things stand, they look good for .500, give or take a few games. They needed to make one more big move for a corner bat or a legit SS and so far...nothing.
    There was very little available when it came to their possible improvements. They did very well given what was available and what they had to work with. There simply weren't quality CF's and quality SS's available. Relief Pitchers are always a crapshoot and it's wise not to spend much on them. Given all of this, and compared to every other team filling their needs and improving their weaknesses without getting weaker in other areas, then tge REDS have had a successful Winter for the 2nd year in a row. If they can pull off another successful Summer trade, then this team should be within 3 games of a playoff spot on September 1st.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  15. #57
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    Re: In your opinion...

    They could have ponied up for Gregorious, they chose not to. They have yet to pony up for a corner OF, and while Castellanos is still there, if he goes somewhere else, it will be because they chose not to. I am tired of excuses, frankly, from the team. If they are gonna do this, they need to get off the pot and actually go for it. Right now, half measures.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

  16. #58
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    Re: In your opinion...

    They can't eliminate free agent options next Winter by overspending on players who don't really help them this Winter.

    They did better this Winter than I thought they would while they got creative for the 2nd Winter in a row trying to improve the organization. Remember that they are deplete if Minor league arms to trade, too. Would like to see them improve the minor league pitching depth.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  17. #59
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    Re: In your opinion...

    Why try this year when there is always the promise of trying the next year. Got it.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

  18. #60
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    Re: In your opinion...

    I give them a B+ because in recent 6 or 7 years, nobody that was injured was replaced and they seemed to be at best treading water. This offseason is a big contrast to this recent past. I think it is possible they are somehow waiting for a big deal to come through. If we get Castellanos, they will have too many outfielders so there will be some kind of further action. I think it's exciting! There is no further talk about our GM sitting on his hands, which is huge, no matter the outcome.

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