Trade Idea with Colorado

[757690]

The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.

So even if he were to put up a .750 OPS, he’s be a well above average SS overall, and solid improvement over Galvis.

[Redhook]

The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.

So even if he were to put up a .750 OPS, he’s be a well above average SS overall, and solid improvement over Galvis.

Almost no chance he’d OPS .750, but I get your point. Personally, I’d be shocked if he OPS’d under .825 playing half his games at GABP. Not Coors, but still a great place to hit. Story is a stud. Living in Denver now and seeing how much he’s revered here, I’d be very surprised if they traded him, especially for lowball offers in this thread. IMO, he’s worth just as much as Seager in a trade.

[BluegrassRedleg]

The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.

That is surprising. Is some of that just fate? I watched quite a few Rockies games last year and never thought Story was in the same league as Iglesias.


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[RedsManRick]

That is surprising. Is some of that just fate? I watched quite a few Rockies games last year and never thought Story was in the same league as Iglesias.

By "fate" did you mean luck? In any event, here's an article diving in to his improved defensive stats: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-s...roved-defense/

The TLDR is that he got better on grounders up the middle. Positioning may have contributed to that somewhat, but it wasn't driven by positioning. The new statcast data is also positioning neutral, which supports improved lateral performance.

I would add that, to my eyes, big IFs almost never look quite as impressive as little ones do when making good plays because it seems like they're moving a touch more slowly.

[HammerTime]

Almost no chance he’d OPS .750, but I get your point. Personally, I’d be shocked if he OPS’d under .825 playing half his games at GABP. Not Coors, but still a great place to hit. Story is a stud. Living in Denver now and seeing how much he’s revered here, I’d be very surprised if they traded him, especially for lowball offers in this thread. IMO, he’s worth just as much as Seager in a trade.

He's worth more than Seager for sure.

[Ren Deagle]

How about a different kind of deal. How about trading Senzel to the Nats for Carter Kieboom? The Nats need a 3rd baseman and would like to stay under the luxury tax. Kieboom is a prospect who is ready for the next step but is blocked by Trea Turner. The Reds would be trading away a guy who isn't playing his best position for a guy who slots in long term at a needed one.

I thought about suggesting Gavix Lux but he makes too many errors.

For those of you who object to trading for a prospect, well I still think the Reds are a small market team. There has to be a few inexpensive players to hang around long term.

[Alpha Zero]

How about a different kind of deal. How about trading Senzel to the Nats for Carter Kieboom? The Nats need a 3rd baseman and would like to stay under the luxury tax. Kieboom is a prospect who is ready for the next step but is blocked by Trea Turner. The Reds would be trading away a guy who isn't playing his best position for a guy who slots in long term at a needed one.

I thought about suggesting Gavix Lux but he makes too many errors.

For those of you who object to trading for a prospect, well I still think the Reds are a small market team. There has to be a few inexpensive players to hang around long term.

Very, very interesting idea, but I’m not really sure that the Nats wouldn’t just prefer to move Kieboom to 3B and call it a day.

[CmdrCody]

I thought that at first, too. But it should be said that if you put the Reds in the NL West and take out Rockies, the Reds home/away splits in general might be similar playing at GABP. Those NLW ballparks are pretty rough on players. And a .756 away split on OPS still isn’t bad for a SS, and still .75 higher than Galvis’s career numbers.

Also, he still hit 11HR in 71 games on the road in those ballparks. He has legit power.

I’d give up Winker for him. Maybe do the Stephenson trade that’s been floated on here.

Story didn’t play 71 games on the road last year in “spacious” NL west ballparks because teams only play about 76 total games against their own division each year, so it would be about 36-38 games in those parks.

[BluegrassRedleg]

By "fate" did you mean luck? In any event, here's an article diving in to his improved defensive stats: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-s...roved-defense/

The TLDR is that he got better on grounders up the middle. Positioning may have contributed to that somewhat, but it wasn't driven by positioning. The new statcast data is also positioning neutral, which supports improved lateral performance.

I would add that, to my eyes, big IFs almost never look quite as impressive as little ones do when making good plays because it seems like they're moving a touch more slowly.

Or maybe "random," for lack of a better word. Seemed like outs above average would be contingent on some stuff not completely related to the player. I like Story, though. Not suggesting he's a slouch. Just surprised he was in the same league as Iglesias. Maybe some of that has to do with the size bias you mention. The smaller guys may just appear to be better at times.

[OhioRiverBarge]

So I looked up Story on fangraphs and isolated his numbers to non-NLWest away games and he’s actually worse than typical NL West away games. So that busts that theory.

Year: PA - AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

2016: 117 - .217/.284/.377/.662
2017: 130 - .215/.315/.366/.681
2018: 170 - .270/.318/.497/.815
2019: 181 - .224/.293/.412/.705

[cincinnati chili]

Living where I live, I see Trevor Story a lot. Although Coors Field splits can be misleading, because of the effect coming and going from altitude can have on your brain and body, I see him as a severe collapse candidate at sea level. His walk rate improved last year but his K-to-BB ratio is still abysmal. Considering how few balls he puts in play, you risk a complete collapse of his slash line if he starts playing half his games in a park where the outfielders have a half acre less ground to cover. Unless you can hoodwink the Rockies with a sucker deal (which is always possible - just ask Ian Desmond’s agent), I wouldn’t target him.

[RedsManRick]

Or maybe "random," for lack of a better word. Seemed like outs above average would be contingent on some stuff not completely related to the player. I like Story, though. Not suggesting he's a slouch. Just surprised he was in the same league as Iglesias. Maybe some of that has to do with the size bias you mention. The smaller guys may just appear to be better at times.

It can be interesting to think about the different sorts of "errors". But before that, you should be clear with yourself about what it is you actually want to measure. Typically it's one of two things:

1) How well did he actually perform in the past?
2a) What's his current talent level? 2b) How should we expect him to perform moving forward.

With defensive metrics, people tend to discount the distinction. This is typified by the saying "defense never slumps". Even if we know it's not necessarily true, it's really hard for us have a sustained sense, a narrative of how good or bad a defensive season a player is having. I think that's because on offense we rely quite a bit on year-to-date player stats to inform our internal narrative about how a player has performed that year. While we may have a vague sense that a player is doing well or not, the statistics cement it for us. We're reminded every PA with numbers for which we have easily accessible benchmarks and comparison points. And we're even given more numbers specifically describing recent performance to give the season a shape and direction.

We don't get any of that for defense other than errors, which we all know are sketchy at best. We don't even have accepted measures of goodness and badness. There's no accepted corresponding defensive rating to a .280/.380/.450 batting line or even that .830 OPS. Instead, we have basically "really bad, below average, average, above average, amazing". And that's our narrative. And every time that player does or doesn't make a play, we put it back against that simple anchored assessment. Instead of adjusting from an .825 to an .831 OPS, we either leave him at average or update him to above average. It's a big step that rarely feels justified by a single play. So we don't tend to update our mental model of defender ability much. It would take a lot of evidence to the contrary to move of us off that understanding. Where's that evidence going to come from? Highlights? Stats we don't trust to begin with because they don't match our eyes? And then you layer in that defenders have fewer chances per season than batters and, crucially, less variation between the extremes of good and bad because they're only competing against a subset of other players selected for having similar skill levels and it's a recipe for unclear signals.

In short, we don't tend to think about guys having good/bad defensive seasons separately from simply being good/bad defenders for their position. And so we see a number for a given year that looks off and we have an instinct to dismiss it. We look for the problems in the data that can confirm our suspicion that defensive metrics are inaccurate/wrong.

Sure, some amount of the outs above average are a function of what particular balls he had to field, whether other defenders did their job, etc. etc. But especially with the new statcast data, we're now doing a pretty darn good job at accounting for that stuff.

Getting back to the distinction above, is the surprise that he IS as good a defender as Iglesias or that he had a single season? If it's a single season, well, just treat it as a single season. Sometimes mediocre hitters have really good years. But, and this is really important to remember, when you're comparing defenders to other defenders at the position, the gaps in their talent AND performance just aren't that big because they've already been grouped together. The gap between a bad hitter and a great one can be 60+ runs. For defenders it's typically half that. Comparing a mediocre defensive SS to a great defensive SS is like comparing an .850 OPS hitter to a .950 OPS hitter. Is it really all that surprising if the .850 OPS guy puts up a .950 OPS season? And if you're really thinking about talent level, well, make sure you're looking at a measure of talent level, such as a prediction of future performance. It's likely that the guy who outperformed his reputation is not believed to actually have established his talent level at those heights.

[757690]

Concerning Story’s home/ away splits:

Here are the career home away splits for Suarez: .858/.778

[Tracy Jones]

Concerning Story’s home/ away splits:

Here are the career home away splits for Suarez: .858/.778

Last 2 years on the road Suarez was at .884 and .895

[OhioRiverBarge]

I’m willing to roll the dice on Story. How about this package.

Rox get:
Blandino
India
Mahle
Winker

Reds get:
Story
Gray

Measures out about even on the trade simulator (1pt diff).

Rockies get a nice return that would help them with a quick turn around.

Reds potentially get a package that puts them over the top.

1. Akiyama - LF
2. Votto - 1B
3. Suarez - 3B
4. Moustakas - 2B
5. Story - SS
6. Aquino - RF
7. Barnhart - C
8. Pitcher
9. Senzel - CF

Castillo
Gray
Gray
Bauer
Miley

Disco goes to the pen or is traded