Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 4 FirstFirst 1234 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 48

Thread: Trade Idea with Colorado

  1. #16
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,427

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.

    So even if he were to put up a .750 OPS, he’s be a well above average SS overall, and solid improvement over Galvis.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  2. Likes:

    OhioRiverBarge (01-11-2020)

  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #17
    Member Redhook's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    2,316

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.

    So even if he were to put up a .750 OPS, he’s be a well above average SS overall, and solid improvement over Galvis.
    Almost no chance he’d OPS .750, but I get your point. Personally, I’d be shocked if he OPS’d under .825 playing half his games at GABP. Not Coors, but still a great place to hit. Story is a stud. Living in Denver now and seeing how much he’s revered here, I’d be very surprised if they traded him, especially for lowball offers in this thread. IMO, he’s worth just as much as Seager in a trade.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

  5. #18
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    South of Cincinnati
    Posts
    6,010

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The new stat cast defensive numbers came out and Story was ranked one for the best SS in terms of outs above average, at 14, better than even Iglesias and Galvis were last year, who both were at 12.
    That is surprising. Is some of that just fate? I watched quite a few Rockies games last year and never thought Story was in the same league as Iglesias.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  6. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Toronto, ON
    Posts
    18,727

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    That is surprising. Is some of that just fate? I watched quite a few Rockies games last year and never thought Story was in the same league as Iglesias.
    By "fate" did you mean luck? In any event, here's an article diving in to his improved defensive stats: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-s...roved-defense/

    The TLDR is that he got better on grounders up the middle. Positioning may have contributed to that somewhat, but it wasn't driven by positioning. The new statcast data is also positioning neutral, which supports improved lateral performance.

    I would add that, to my eyes, big IFs almost never look quite as impressive as little ones do when making good plays because it seems like they're moving a touch more slowly.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #20
    Member HammerTime's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2019
    Location
    NKY
    Posts
    692

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by Redhook View Post
    Almost no chance he’d OPS .750, but I get your point. Personally, I’d be shocked if he OPS’d under .825 playing half his games at GABP. Not Coors, but still a great place to hit. Story is a stud. Living in Denver now and seeing how much he’s revered here, I’d be very surprised if they traded him, especially for lowball offers in this thread. IMO, he’s worth just as much as Seager in a trade.
    He's worth more than Seager for sure.

  8. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2018
    Posts
    283

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    How about a different kind of deal. How about trading Senzel to the Nats for Carter Kieboom? The Nats need a 3rd baseman and would like to stay under the luxury tax. Kieboom is a prospect who is ready for the next step but is blocked by Trea Turner. The Reds would be trading away a guy who isn't playing his best position for a guy who slots in long term at a needed one.

    I thought about suggesting Gavix Lux but he makes too many errors.

    For those of you who object to trading for a prospect, well I still think the Reds are a small market team. There has to be a few inexpensive players to hang around long term.

  9. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    731

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by Ren Deagle View Post
    How about a different kind of deal. How about trading Senzel to the Nats for Carter Kieboom? The Nats need a 3rd baseman and would like to stay under the luxury tax. Kieboom is a prospect who is ready for the next step but is blocked by Trea Turner. The Reds would be trading away a guy who isn't playing his best position for a guy who slots in long term at a needed one.

    I thought about suggesting Gavix Lux but he makes too many errors.

    For those of you who object to trading for a prospect, well I still think the Reds are a small market team. There has to be a few inexpensive players to hang around long term.
    Very, very interesting idea, but I’m not really sure that the Nats wouldn’t just prefer to move Kieboom to 3B and call it a day.

  10. #23
    Member CmdrCody's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    147

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by OhioRiverBarge View Post
    I thought that at first, too. But it should be said that if you put the Reds in the NL West and take out Rockies, the Reds home/away splits in general might be similar playing at GABP. Those NLW ballparks are pretty rough on players. And a .756 away split on OPS still isn’t bad for a SS, and still .75 higher than Galvis’s career numbers.

    Also, he still hit 11HR in 71 games on the road in those ballparks. He has legit power.

    I’d give up Winker for him. Maybe do the Stephenson trade that’s been floated on here.
    Story didn’t play 71 games on the road last year in “spacious” NL west ballparks because teams only play about 76 total games against their own division each year, so it would be about 36-38 games in those parks.
    Reds fan since 1968 win or lose.

  11. #24
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    South of Cincinnati
    Posts
    6,010

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    By "fate" did you mean luck? In any event, here's an article diving in to his improved defensive stats: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/trevor-s...roved-defense/

    The TLDR is that he got better on grounders up the middle. Positioning may have contributed to that somewhat, but it wasn't driven by positioning. The new statcast data is also positioning neutral, which supports improved lateral performance.

    I would add that, to my eyes, big IFs almost never look quite as impressive as little ones do when making good plays because it seems like they're moving a touch more slowly.
    Or maybe "random," for lack of a better word. Seemed like outs above average would be contingent on some stuff not completely related to the player. I like Story, though. Not suggesting he's a slouch. Just surprised he was in the same league as Iglesias. Maybe some of that has to do with the size bias you mention. The smaller guys may just appear to be better at times.
    Rounding third and heading for home...

  12. #25
    He still bangs OhioRiverBarge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Location
    ‘Nati
    Posts
    1,797

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    So I looked up Story on fangraphs and isolated his numbers to non-NLWest away games and he’s actually worse than typical NL West away games. So that busts that theory.

    Year: PA - AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

    2016: 117 - .217/.284/.377/.662
    2017: 130 - .215/.315/.366/.681
    2018: 170 - .270/.318/.497/.815
    2019: 181 - .224/.293/.412/.705
    "In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base,' a certain game of ball. We wish such sights were more common among us...The game of ball is glorious..." -Walt Whitman, 1846

  13. #26
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    11,589

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Living where I live, I see Trevor Story a lot. Although Coors Field splits can be misleading, because of the effect coming and going from altitude can have on your brain and body, I see him as a severe collapse candidate at sea level. His walk rate improved last year but his K-to-BB ratio is still abysmal. Considering how few balls he puts in play, you risk a complete collapse of his slash line if he starts playing half his games in a park where the outfielders have a half acre less ground to cover. Unless you can hoodwink the Rockies with a sucker deal (which is always possible - just ask Ian Desmond’s agent), I wouldn’t target him.
    Alice Sweet's Tomato Plant

  14. #27
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Toronto, ON
    Posts
    18,727

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by BluegrassRedleg View Post
    Or maybe "random," for lack of a better word. Seemed like outs above average would be contingent on some stuff not completely related to the player. I like Story, though. Not suggesting he's a slouch. Just surprised he was in the same league as Iglesias. Maybe some of that has to do with the size bias you mention. The smaller guys may just appear to be better at times.
    It can be interesting to think about the different sorts of "errors". But before that, you should be clear with yourself about what it is you actually want to measure. Typically it's one of two things:

    1) How well did he actually perform in the past?
    2a) What's his current talent level? 2b) How should we expect him to perform moving forward.

    With defensive metrics, people tend to discount the distinction. This is typified by the saying "defense never slumps". Even if we know it's not necessarily true, it's really hard for us have a sustained sense, a narrative of how good or bad a defensive season a player is having. I think that's because on offense we rely quite a bit on year-to-date player stats to inform our internal narrative about how a player has performed that year. While we may have a vague sense that a player is doing well or not, the statistics cement it for us. We're reminded every PA with numbers for which we have easily accessible benchmarks and comparison points. And we're even given more numbers specifically describing recent performance to give the season a shape and direction.

    We don't get any of that for defense other than errors, which we all know are sketchy at best. We don't even have accepted measures of goodness and badness. There's no accepted corresponding defensive rating to a .280/.380/.450 batting line or even that .830 OPS. Instead, we have basically "really bad, below average, average, above average, amazing". And that's our narrative. And every time that player does or doesn't make a play, we put it back against that simple anchored assessment. Instead of adjusting from an .825 to an .831 OPS, we either leave him at average or update him to above average. It's a big step that rarely feels justified by a single play. So we don't tend to update our mental model of defender ability much. It would take a lot of evidence to the contrary to move of us off that understanding. Where's that evidence going to come from? Highlights? Stats we don't trust to begin with because they don't match our eyes? And then you layer in that defenders have fewer chances per season than batters and, crucially, less variation between the extremes of good and bad because they're only competing against a subset of other players selected for having similar skill levels and it's a recipe for unclear signals.

    In short, we don't tend to think about guys having good/bad defensive seasons separately from simply being good/bad defenders for their position. And so we see a number for a given year that looks off and we have an instinct to dismiss it. We look for the problems in the data that can confirm our suspicion that defensive metrics are inaccurate/wrong.

    Sure, some amount of the outs above average are a function of what particular balls he had to field, whether other defenders did their job, etc. etc. But especially with the new statcast data, we're now doing a pretty darn good job at accounting for that stuff.

    Getting back to the distinction above, is the surprise that he IS as good a defender as Iglesias or that he had a single season? If it's a single season, well, just treat it as a single season. Sometimes mediocre hitters have really good years. But, and this is really important to remember, when you're comparing defenders to other defenders at the position, the gaps in their talent AND performance just aren't that big because they've already been grouped together. The gap between a bad hitter and a great one can be 60+ runs. For defenders it's typically half that. Comparing a mediocre defensive SS to a great defensive SS is like comparing an .850 OPS hitter to a .950 OPS hitter. Is it really all that surprising if the .850 OPS guy puts up a .950 OPS season? And if you're really thinking about talent level, well, make sure you're looking at a measure of talent level, such as a prediction of future performance. It's likely that the guy who outperformed his reputation is not believed to actually have established his talent level at those heights.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #28
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    24,427

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Concerning Story’s home/ away splits:

    Here are the career home away splits for Suarez: .858/.778
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  16. #29
    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    3,730

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Concerning Story’s home/ away splits:

    Here are the career home away splits for Suarez: .858/.778
    Last 2 years on the road Suarez was at .884 and .895

  17. Likes:

    757690 (01-12-2020),RedTeamGo! (01-12-2020)

  18. #30
    He still bangs OhioRiverBarge's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Location
    ‘Nati
    Posts
    1,797

    Re: Trade Idea with Colorado

    I’m willing to roll the dice on Story. How about this package.

    Rox get:
    Blandino
    India
    Mahle
    Winker

    Reds get:
    Story
    Gray

    Measures out about even on the trade simulator (1pt diff).

    Rockies get a nice return that would help them with a quick turn around.

    Reds potentially get a package that puts them over the top.

    1. Akiyama - LF
    2. Votto - 1B
    3. Suarez - 3B
    4. Moustakas - 2B
    5. Story - SS
    6. Aquino - RF
    7. Barnhart - C
    8. Pitcher
    9. Senzel - CF

    Castillo
    Gray
    Gray
    Bauer
    Miley

    Disco goes to the pen or is traded
    "In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base,' a certain game of ball. We wish such sights were more common among us...The game of ball is glorious..." -Walt Whitman, 1846


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Kinsm | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator