Reds Sign RP Nate Jones to Minor Leage Deal

[MoneyInTheBank]

Wasn’t Bauer hurt like all of last year?

Yes he was. There was some sarcasm there. Of course he's not immune to injury

[Griffey012]

Jones pitched 11.2 innings in 2017; 30 innings in 2018; and 10.1 innings in 2019. His last full MLB season was in 2016. Among his DL stays, he was on the 60-day DL in 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019 (forearm surgery).

There are posters here saying, in effect, THiS is the way to fix the Reds’ pen.

Nothing against minor league contracts, but spare me the accolades to Reds for this manner of solidifying the pen. I wish this pitcher good luck, seems like he deserves a break after all the injuries, I’ll be rooting for him.

Nate Jones himself isn't a way fix the pen. But adding Shafer, Thornburg, Jones, De Leon, goes a long way to doing that. We should be able to get 60 solid innings out of that group. And it is possible we get well more than 60 innings out of that group. 60 solid innings is about what you are hoping to add if you go out a give real money to a reliever.

[Kc61]

Nate Jones himself isn't a way fix the pen. But adding Shafer, Thornburg, Jones, De Leon, goes a long way to doing that. We should be able to get 60 solid innings out of that group. And it is possible we get well more than 60 innings out of that group. 60 solid innings is about what you are hoping to add if you go out a give real money to a reliever.

60 solid innings? You’re a great optimist, good for you. (Even if true, how many “unsolid innings?”)

These are all turnaround situations, big time, and we know nothing to indicate turnarounds are in order.

Reds lost 133 innings from Hernandez, Hughes, and Peralta. No great shakes but there are lots of innings to fill and I would never rely on turnaround candidates to this extent.

I’m hopeful Reds will add relievers of more proven health and quality to the pen, I think they need that.

[Griffey012]

60 solid innings? You’re a great optimist, good for you. (Even if true, how many “unsolid innings?”)

These are all turnaround situations, big time, and we know nothing to indicate turnarounds are in order.

Reds lost 133 innings from Hernandez, Hughes, and Peralta. No great shakes but there are lots of innings to fill and I would never rely on turnaround candidates to this extent.

I’m hopeful Reds will add relievers of more proven health and quality to the pen, I think they need that.

It is a good thing there is this thing called Spring Training to evaluate the health and performance of these relievers. They aren't running Nate Jones out on the opening day roster if his stuff isn't there. If the guys aren't performing they won't get a call unless if the Reds have a need for someone to fill some meaningless innings.

DeLeon came back from TJ and threw well, the Reds know what they are getting there. Shafer threw a full season, the Reds know what they are getting there. Thornburg and Jones are injury question marks, I agree. But then again Hernandez and Hughes and tons of other relievers were proven health and quality coming into last season, and flopped.

A proven health and quality guy is just as likely to go belly up as someone from that group of four is to regain their health and performance. That's the nature of relievers.

The Reds aren't relying on turnaround candidates to fill 133 innings. They already replaced Hughes, Hernandez, and Peralta with Sims, Bowman, Kuhnel, more innings from Stephenson, then there is a healthy Reed.

[Kc61]

It is a good thing there is this thing called Spring Training to evaluate the health and performance of these relievers. They aren't running Nate Jones out on the opening day roster if his stuff isn't there. If the guys aren't performing they won't get a call unless if the Reds have a need for someone to fill some meaningless innings.

DeLeon came back from TJ and threw well, the Reds know what they are getting there. Shafer threw a full season, the Reds know what they are getting there. Thornburg and Jones are injury question marks, I agree. But then again Hernandez and Hughes and tons of other relievers were proven health and quality coming into last season, and flopped.

A proven health and quality guy is just as likely to go belly up as someone from that group of four is to regain their health and performance. That's the nature of relievers.

The Reds aren't relying on turnaround candidates to fill 133 innings. They already replaced Hughes, Hernandez, and Peralta with Sims, Bowman, Kuhnel, more innings from Stephenson, then there is a healthy Reed.

Right, they aren’t just relying on turnaround candidates. They are also relying on unproven candidates. What Reds lack is solid proven relievers. Their best one is himself a risk with all the HRs. I don’t see a good recipe here.

Fangraphs article on Zips projections this week noted Reds’ need for “at least one more significant arm” in the pen.

I don’t mind some of these turnaround and unproven guys filling out the pen. But this pen is too thin in higher echelon relievers. Even considering overall reliever volatility, this one has too few with track records inspiring confidence.

[Griffey012]

Right, they aren’t just relying on turnaround candidates. They are also relying on unproven candidates. What Reds lack is solid proven relievers. Their best one is himself a risk with all the HRs. I don’t see a good recipe here.

Fangraphs article on Zips projections this week pointed to the Reds’ need for “at least one more significant arm” in the pen. I agree.

I don’t mind some of these turnaround and unproven guys filling out the pen. But this pen is too thin in higher echelon relievers. Even considering overall reliever volatility, this one lacks guys with track records inspiring confidence.

How long does one have to pitch in the bullpen to be "proven" by your standards. To me, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Sims, and Bowman are considered "proven" at this juncture.

Who around baseball has a bullpen that fits your desired mold? Aside from the Yankees and their $50M trio.

The next sentence in the fangraphs article also mentioned "Unfortunately, this wasn’t a great offseason to shop for relievers, with a small free agent class resulting in some of its better arms, like Drew Pomeranz and Will Smith, signing very quickly."

[Kc61]

How long does one have to pitch in the bullpen to be "proven" by your standards. To me, Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Sims, and Bowman are considered "proven" at this juncture.

Who around baseball has a bullpen that fits your desired mold? Aside from the Yankees and their $50M trio.

The next sentence in the fangraphs article also mentioned "Unfortunately, this wasn’t a great offseason to shop for relievers, with a small free agent class resulting in some of its better arms, like Drew Pomeranz and Will Smith, signing very quickly."

A proven reliever has several years of successful relief pitching. Whether it’s 2 or 4 or 6 is debatable. It’s not Lucas Sims or Cody Reed.

I’m not enamored with Iglesias, Garrett, Lorenzen and Stephenson to hold the late innings. Lorenzen was solid last year, Stephenson ok in middle innings. I have issues with the other two, and overall it isn’t good enough.

As for the Fangraphs comment, sure, there wasn’t much on the market this year. But it doesn’t change the Reds need, which remains.

[Griffey012]

A proven reliever has several years of successful relief pitching. Whether it’s 2 or 4 or 6 is debatable. It’s not Lucas Sims or Cody Reed.

I’m not enamored with Iglesias, Garrett, Lorenzen and Stephenson to hold the late innings. Lorenzen was solid last year, Stephenson ok in middle innings. I have issues with the other two, and overall it isn’t good enough.

As for the Fangraphs comment, sure, there wasn’t much on the market this year. But it doesn’t change the Reds need, which remains.

It is hard to follow what exactly you desire for the Reds pen. Comments like

Reds lost 133 innings from Hernandez, Hughes, and Peralta. No great shakes but there are lots of innings to fill and I would never rely on turnaround candidates to this extent.

I’m hopeful Reds will add relievers of more proven health and quality to the pen, I think they need that.

What Reds lack is solid proven relievers.

Lead me to believe you are talking about adding some middle of the road veteran types with a track record of solid, yet unspectacular results. Which really isn't an improvement over the likely production of the current candidates, just a more expensive version. So yea, the Reds current approach will likely suffice to fill that spot.

I don’t mind some of these turnaround and unproven guys filling out the pen. But this pen is too thin in higher echelon relievers.

Fangraphs article on Zips projections this week noted Reds’ need for “at least one more significant arm” in the pen.

These two quotes seem like you are talking about a back of the bullpen hammer, which would be an obvious improvement over the in house candidates. But I don't think the the group of Jones, Thornburg, De Leon, Shafer is anyway related to the acquisition or non-acquisition of that back end hammer. Those types are always in demand and of limited quantity.

[texasdave]

The Reds have no idea what they are getting from Jose De Leon. He is 27, and pitched a grand total of 23.2 innings in the majors. I would hardly call that established. His numbers over those 23.2 innings? 1.648 WIP. 6.71 FIP. 2.3 HR/9. 4.9 BB/9. 9.9 H/P. 9.1 K/9. That 9.1 K/9 might look good at first glance until you realize that league-wise relievers struck out 9.3 batters per 9 innings of work.

The Reds are hoping that De Leon turns into a solid reliever.

Justin Shafer's numbers are no day at the beach either. Shafer is 27 as well. His career stats: 48.0 IP, 1.646 WHIP, 5.52 FIP, 6.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9. 1.3 HR/9 and 8.8 H/9.

I don't think those are going to play out too well either.

[Edd Roush]

The Reds have no idea what they are getting from Jose De Leon. He is 27, and pitched a grand total of 23.2 innings in the majors. I would hardly call that established. His numbers over those 23.2 innings? 1.648 WIP. 6.71 FIP. 2.3 HR/9. 4.9 BB/9. 9.9 H/P. 9.1 K/9. That 9.1 K/9 might look good at first glance until you realize that league-wise relievers struck out 9.3 batters per 9 innings of work.

The Reds are hoping that De Leon turns into a solid reliever.

Justin Shafer's numbers are no day at the beach either. Shafer is 27 as well. His career stats: 48.0 IP, 1.646 WHIP, 5.52 FIP, 6.0 BB/9, 7.7 K/9. 1.3 HR/9 and 8.8 H/9.

I don't think those are going to play out too well either.

I honestly hope DeLeon is in the AAA rotation since he has another option and since starting pitchers impact a game much more than relievers.

I think Shafer is one of the first to go once one of the non-roster guys make the team.

That being said, Thornburg and Jones could make a huge impact if either of them show that they are healthy.

[Kc61]

It is hard to follow what exactly you desire for the Reds pen. Comments like





Lead me to believe you are talking about adding some middle of the road veteran types with a track record of solid, yet unspectacular results. Which really isn't an improvement over the likely production of the current candidates, just a more expensive version. So yea, the Reds current approach will likely suffice to fill that spot.




These two quotes seem like you are talking about a back of the bullpen hammer, which would be an obvious improvement over the in house candidates. But I don't think the the group of Jones, Thornburg, De Leon, Shafer is anyway related to the acquisition or non-acquisition of that back end hammer. Those types are always in demand and of limited quantity.

The Reds optimally need both - another late innings set up man and another middle reliever. Each healthy with a good track record.

They have a weakness in the late innings group. They also need to cover more innings.

Given that we are already in mid-January I can only guess that obtaining both is a long shot, which is unfortunate.

[Griffey012]

The Reds optimally need both - another late innings set up man and another middle reliever. Each healthy with a good track record.

They have a weakness in the late innings group. They also need to cover more innings.

Given that we are already in mid-January I can only guess that obtaining both is a long shot, which is unfortunate.

I'm on board adding to the back end of the pen if someone is an upgrade that doesn't cost an arm and a leg. I think Ian Kennedy would be a good target who should be of low cost. I don't see many other relievers that performed well (3.50 ish ERA or lower with solid peripherals) in 2019 or are expected to perform well in 2020 that would be available. But, once you plug him in, I just don't see the need to add another middle reliever with guaranteed money on a MLB deal, unless it is from the bargain bin.

Iglesias
Lorenzen
Kennedy
Garrett
Reed
Stephenson
Bowman
Sims

with
Kuhnel
De Leon
Shafer
David Carpenter
Jones/Thornburg
Romano

as depth

and then if push comes to shove you have prospects such at Vlad Gut and Santillan or you hit the trade market in season.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds optimally need both - another late innings set up man and another middle reliever. Each healthy with a good track record.

Let's come at his another way.

The following relievers are out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent down to AAA:

Amir Garrett
Robert Stephenson
Lucas Sims
Cody Reed
Sal Romano
Brooks Raley

The following, if signed to a major league contract, would also have to clear waivers or be traded:
Nate Jones
Tyler Thornburg

There's also Iglesias, Lorenzen, Bowman, Mahle, DeLeon, Kuhnel, Shafer, Hendrix, Smith, and Alaniz-- all of whom have options.

You've got 8 slots. In your opinion, who needs to go down or be dealt in order to add more relief arms?

[Edd Roush]

Let's come at his another way.

The following relievers are out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent down to AAA:

Amir Garrett
Robert Stephenson
Lucas Sims
Cody Reed
Sal Romano
Brooks Raley

The following, if signed to a major league contract, would also have to clear waivers or be traded:
Nate Jones
Tyler Thornburg

There's also Iglesias, Lorenzen, Bowman, Mahle, DeLeon, Kuhnel, Shafer, Hendrix, Smith, and Alaniz-- all of whom have options.

You've got 8 slots. In your opinion, who needs to go down or be dealt in order to add more relief arms?

For the record, I think the bullpen will be comprised of: Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Sims, Reed, Jones and Thornburg if all are healthy. The Reds should let Romano or Raley go through waivers if everyone is healthy.

[Edd Roush]

For the record, I think the bullpen will be comprised of: Iglesias, Lorenzen, Garrett, Stephenson, Sims, Reed, Jones and Thornburg if all are healthy. The Reds should let Romano or Raley go through waivers if everyone is healthy.

Looks like Dan Szymborski had Kuhnel and Romano in over Jones and Thornburg and his projections had the bullpen at 3.6 wins. He also got 0.7 fWAR from Romano, but that is over 111 innings. I certainly hope Romano isn't pitching that many innings last year. He only had 0.3 fWAR from Kuhnel.

Thornburg had more than 1 win as a reliever twice in his career, but it has been 3 years since he reached that point. Believe it or not, the exact same is true for Jones.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zip...ncinnati-reds/