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Thread: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

  1. #16
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    I think it hurts just based on this last rebuild. Because of the pitching friendly environments we really over valued our pitching prospects and that is why they are struggling in the majors. I think Santillan is over rated by fans because his numbers look great in context of mlb numbers but he is below average for his league.

    I think a lot of our hitters are better than fans think because of how pitcher friendly they are. I think guys like Aquino India Siri Shed Long and Trammel. These league are si tough it is hard to know how good they are.
    Well, they seem to have learned and aren't holding a spot for Santillan (also don't think his numbers look great). The Reds aren't good at identifying/developing pitchers, but pitching friendly circuits give them the opportunity to bring along pitchers with a minimal amount of abuse.

    And it's not hard to make adjustments on hitter numbers. What is hard is to know when a kid in the Cali or Texas leagues are putting up unsustainable numbers. I'm sure we all fondly recall immortals like Devin Lohman, Henry Rodriguez, Steve Selsky, Donald Lutz, Marquez Smith and Kyle Waldrop putting up big stat lines in Bakersfield.

    It's not hard to figure out how good Siri is. He's awful.
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  3. #17
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Disagree. I think a pitching lean is preferable at those levels (and in general). As one who is in favor of challenging hitters, I don't want them playing in an easy-button league. It exposes the wannabes while the quality guys stand out. Sorting them out is an essential part of the process. The last thing you want is for a guy to get to the majors and then find out he's a pretender. Used to happen frequently to the Angels in 2000s when they had hitters affiliates all the way up ladder. Wasn't until they reached the majors that Dallas McPherson, Casey Kotchman and Brandon Wood got exposed. They were all elite prospects (#12, #6 and #3 at their peaks).

    It's a good thing that Taylor Trammell hit the wall last year. India trending toward three outcomes at a young age is important information. Much easier to judge them when the circuit doesn't paper over their flaws, IMO. It avoids the hardest thing to spot, which is the false positive.
    At the end of the day I am not too concerned with the environments, although I would prefer to avoid any extreme environments. From a fan evaluation perspective, the tough hitter environments just make it hard to compare and project our hitting prospects. Take India for example, his .756 A+ OPS looks bad at first glance, but then you consider only 3 players 22 an under had a higher OPS it looks good. But just how good and what it means is hard to tell.

    Although I will say in alluding to the crazy hitter environments, in 2020, there is so much better data out there that these McPherson's, Kotchman's, and Brandon Woods don't get the free passes due to playing in crazy hitter environments. Everyone pretty much knew Dylan Cozens would flame out against better pitching, even with his crazy stat line in a crazy Reading, PA environment. Rhys Hoskins probably got overlooked due to getting dinged for playing in those environments.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 01-27-2020 at 10:28 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Well, they seem to have learned and aren't holding a spot for Santillan (also don't think his numbers look great). The Reds aren't good at identifying/developing pitchers, but pitching friendly circuits give them the opportunity to bring along pitchers with a minimal amount of abuse.

    And it's not hard to make adjustments on hitter numbers. What is hard is to know when a kid in the Cali or Texas leagues are putting up unsustainable numbers. I'm sure we all fondly recall immortals like Devin Lohman, Henry Rodriguez, Steve Selsky, Donald Lutz, Marquez Smith and Kyle Waldrop putting up big stat lines in Bakersfield.

    It's not hard to figure out how good Siri is. He's awful.
    What's weird to me is the Reds are going to pay $1M to Jankowski. Siri is easily as good a defender, has a similar SB profile, and actually has some power.

    Jankowski is a head scratcher to me. Siri is at least a scratch off ticket found in your coat pocket at this point. Probably nothing, but he'll be at AAA this year, so you never know.
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    I think Siri may be a scratch off lottery ticket that has already been scratched...
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What's weird to me is the Reds are going to pay $1M to Jankowski. Siri is easily as good a defender, has a similar SB profile, and actually has some power.

    Jankowski is a head scratcher to me. Siri is at least a scratch off ticket found in your coat pocket at this point. Probably nothing, but he'll be at AAA this year, so you never know.
    Time to snuff out your Siri torch. He's no longer the Reds' problem.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  8. #21
    GO REDS *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    What's weird to me is the Reds are going to pay $1M to Jankowski. Siri is easily as good a defender, has a similar SB profile, and actually has some power.

    Jankowski is a head scratcher to me. Siri is at least a scratch off ticket found in your coat pocket at this point. Probably nothing, but he'll be at AAA this year, so you never know.
    The projection systems have Jankowski with ~.315 OBP and Siri with ~.260 OBP. One is a disaster to have in the lineup temporarily, the other is merely replacement-level...

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    BillDoran (01-28-2020),Edd Roush (01-28-2020),Griffey012 (01-28-2020),Wonderful Monds (01-28-2020)

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    The projection systems have Jankowski with ~.315 OBP and Siri with ~.260 OBP. One is a disaster to have in the lineup temporarily, the other is merely replacement-level...
    That .260 might be generous considering he could only muster a .252 in 112 AAA PA's. That was with a .300 BABIP.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Wonderful Monds (01-28-2020)

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Jose Siri, Yorman Rodriguez

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    Go BLUE!!!

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Jose Siri, Yorman Rodriguez

    Potato potaaato
    That may end up ultimately being true, but we never heard issues with effort from Siri. He seems like he will still catch on and have a Keon Broxton-like career.

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Prospects Live released their top 100 list. Link

    Four Reds on their list:

    • 64 - Nick Lodolo
    • 72 - Hunter Greene
    • 79 - Jonathan India
    • 100 - Jose Garcia

    Seems pretty accurate to me, though they're higher on India and lower on Tyler Stephenson than most around here.

    Hurts a little to see Jeter Downs at No. 60 and Josiah Gray at No. 71.

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Prospects Live released their top 100 list. Link

    Four Reds on their list:

    • 64 - Nick Lodolo
    • 72 - Hunter Greene
    • 79 - Jonathan India
    • 100 - Jose Garcia

    Seems pretty accurate to me, though they're higher on India and lower on Tyler Stephenson than most around here.

    Hurts a little to see Jeter Downs at No. 60 and Josiah Gray at No. 71.
    If I was making my own list Jose Garcia > Jeter Downs. Garcia looks to stick at SS where Downs is already getting moved away. Their bats played similarly last year. Garcia probably has the more project-able body at 6'2 vs 5'11.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Edd Roush (02-03-2020)

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    If I was making my own list Jose Garcia > Jeter Downs. Garcia looks to stick at SS where Downs is already getting moved away. Their bats played similarly last year. Garcia probably has the more project-able body at 6'2 vs 5'11.
    It'd be impossible to say which player projects better, but I can certainly understand ranking Downs ahead of Garcia. Downs appears to have a lot more power in his bat. Also, a lot more willing to take a walk. He's also done it over a slightly longer period of time.

    A lot of ceiling on Garcia yet, and he's trending in the right direction. Both a pretty strong prospects.

    I don't get leaving Tyler Stephenson off a top 100 list. He's not an especially sexy prospect, but he checks nearly all the boxes. Given his pedigree and performance, I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't clock at least five years in the bigs, which is a good deal more than a lot of the longshots on the list.

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    It'd be impossible to say which player projects better, but I can certainly understand ranking Downs ahead of Garcia. Downs appears to have a lot more power in his bat. Also, a lot more willing to take a walk. He's also done it over a slightly longer period of time.

    A lot of ceiling on Garcia yet, and he's trending in the right direction. Both a pretty strong prospects.

    I don't get leaving Tyler Stephenson off a top 100 list. He's not an especially sexy prospect, but he checks nearly all the boxes. Given his pedigree and performance, I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't clock at least five years in the bigs, which is a good deal more than a lot of the longshots on the list.
    I think the power is closer than it seems. We have to consider the Cal League environment compared to the Pitcher friendly FSL. The Dodgers and Rockies seem to have environments way more friendly than the rest of the league as their hitters ISO is well above the rest of the teams. Perhaps some of this is the Dodgers player development too.

    The SS vs 2B/3B discrepancy is huge IMO too.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    M2 (02-03-2020)

  20. #29
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I think the power is closer than it seems. We have to consider the Cal League environment compared to the Pitcher friendly FSL. The Dodgers and Rockies seem to have environments way more friendly than the rest of the league as their hitters ISO is well above the rest of the teams. Perhaps some of this is the Dodgers player development too.

    The SS vs 2B/3B discrepancy is huge IMO too.
    Building on that, Downs had a 134 wRC+ in A+ last season. Garcia had a 131.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Edd Roush (02-03-2020),Griffey012 (02-03-2020)

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    Re: Greene and Lodolo on BA Top 100 List (76&77)

    Jose Garcia has had one mediocre-to-bad season (81 wRC+ in 2018), and one very good season in Daytona (131 wRC+), followed by a terrible showing in the Arizona Fall League (albeit in 69 PA). There are questions about his ability to field the position (~.940 fielding percentage in 2018 and 2019) and he still has to prove he can take a walk. He's a fine prospect, but some of the gas around here is homerism, and some of it is the state of the farm system.

    Comparing him to Jeter Downs feels like a ceiling/floor debate, and I would expect most around here to prefer the home team. But most of the national rankings are going to have Downs ahead of Garcia, and there's a reason for that.

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    *BaseClogger* (02-04-2020)


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