Reds interested in Castellanos

[TRF]

I'd say he's the LF, and that improved defense in CF, Shogo, greatly improves his numbers. He's still got a noodle arm. And players will run on him. But that could lead to him getting some garbage assists like Schebler did when everyone ran on him.

I've stated all along, I wouldn't be upset if the Reds signed him. I've also stated I think a Winker/Ervin platoon would out hit him, and defend about the same. Signing him, IMO means the Reds think they need a replacement at some point for Votto, or that the DH is in play for the NL in the next CBA.

But what this really does is allow the Red to go into 2020 with Galvis at SS, and that, is a good thing. Not from a bat standpoint, but a glove one. With the bat, Galvis provides some pop albeit without OB skills to make that pop really valuable. But 150+ games with his glove on the field helps a lot.

It also frees up guys for the Reds to reload the minors a bit. I've advocated for going after Wander Franco, but really just go after as much as you can. Senzel isn't going to play CF, and he's not going to play RF, not with that shoulder. Hell, he might not play until late in the year. Right now, we just don't know.

As it stands, this team can win, not just compete for, the division title. Get in the playoffs, anything can happen. Now is the time to reload for three years down the road. For when Lodolo and Greene join the rotation. Get those additional replacements. The Reds mortgaged the future for 2020, but signed enough to allow them to trade for the future at the same time. I wonder if they see the opportunity ahead of them to compete not for 1-3 years but 3-6.

[RedsFanInMS]

I believe they just bought out arbitration years and didn't secure any free agent years in that deal. I'm not sure that makes any real difference on his availability or not.

That's exactly what they did. He will get 27.5M in 2020-21 and become a free agent after 21

[UPRedsFan]

Another thought on depth... The Dodgers had 9 players for 7 spots last year who each had 300+ ab's. Bellinger, Turner, Seager, Verdugo, Pollock, Pederson, Muncy, Taylor, Hernandez. They mixed and matched and moved around the diamond. Depth is a good thing. They've got to give ab's to Lux this year. Where do those ab's come from? Chris Taylor would be a nice get to be a platoonish option at SS.

[redsman2007]

Another thought on depth... The Dodgers had 9 players for 7 spots last year who each had 300+ ab's. Bellinger, Turner, Seager, Verdugo, Pollock, Pederson, Muncy, Taylor, Hernandez. They mixed and matched and moved around the diamond. Depth is a good thing. They've got to give ab's to Lux this year. Where do those ab's come from? Chris Taylor would be a nice get to be a platoonish option at SS.

I like Taylor and I think he's a realistic option with a few of things going in his favor.

1. He can play multiple positions, which Williams has said he's targeting.
2. He shouldn't be as expensive to obtain (keep Senzel)
3. Dodgers already have a glut of SS with Seager and Lutz

[TeamSelig]

Plus, in all likelihood this means Winker is getting dealt somewhere. And I think Senzel (especially if he is in RF), Shogo and Aquino all have the chance to be above average defenders.

And the potential lineups look good even before a SS:

Shogo CF
Votto 1B
Suarez 3B
Castellanos LF
Moustakas 2nd
Senzel RF
Galvis SS
Barnhart C

And if you somehow improve either SS or C in the above then you're freaking stacked.

You could also flip Senzel and Shogo if one is better suited for CF than the other. And you still have Aquino as depth or a potential defensive replacement.

Wink is one of our best hitters vs RHP. 887 OPS LY so I don’t see us getting rid of him. He’s way better than Cast vs RHP. I think this just pushes one of the RH bats out. Either Ervin or Aquino. CF has some question marks so that leads me to believe Aquino is the odd man out.

I guess if Shogo can handle CF and hits well vs RHP, we could see Senzel only start vs LHP?

[mattfeet]

Contract has two opt outs. After 2020 and 2021.

[JFLegal]

I'd say he's the LF, and that improved defense in CF, Shogo, greatly improves his numbers. He's still got a noodle arm. And players will run on him. But that could lead to him getting some garbage assists like Schebler did when everyone ran on him.

I've stated all along, I wouldn't be upset if the Reds signed him. I've also stated I think a Winker/Ervin platoon would out hit him, and defend about the same. Signing him, IMO means the Reds think they need a replacement at some point for Votto, or that the DH is in play for the NL in the next CBA.

But what this really does is allow the Red to go into 2020 with Galvis at SS, and that, is a good thing. Not from a bat standpoint, but a glove one. With the bat, Galvis provides some pop albeit without OB skills to make that pop really valuable. But 150+ games with his glove on the field helps a lot.

It also frees up guys for the Reds to reload the minors a bit. I've advocated for going after Wander Franco, but really just go after as much as you can. Senzel isn't going to play CF, and he's not going to play RF, not with that shoulder. Hell, he might not play until late in the year. Right now, we just don't know.

As it stands, this team can win, not just compete for, the division title. Get in the playoffs, anything can happen. Now is the time to reload for three years down the road. For when Lodolo and Greene join the rotation. Get those additional replacements. The Reds mortgaged the future for 2020, but signed enough to allow them to trade for the future at the same time. I wonder if they see the opportunity ahead of them to compete not for 1-3 years but 3-6.

you're just ignoring the (very likely imo) possibility that the reds are about to trade for a shortstop?

[TRF]

you're just ignoring the (very likely imo) possibility that the reds are about to trade for a shortstop?

nope. I'm pointing out a path they COULD take is all. Defensively right now, Galvis is the best on the roster. Trading for a SS is great, trading for a top 20 prospect that happens to be a SS might be better. I'd love it if Lindor were a Red. But that's a plan to compete for two years with no in house replacement.

The Reds can go deep in the playoffs with Galvis, and if they trade for his replacement for next year, then that's a pretty good too.

[oneupper]

Haven't seen Nick at the gym this year. As a REDs fan, very happy. He's a good kid. I think he'll do well.

[RedEye]

Might just be me, but anytime I see a thread starting with, "Reds interested in....", I think, not happening, move along.

How we feeling now?

[TheBigLebowski]

This seems to have worked. And the reason for this conclusion is not specious.

[RedsManRick]

I'm sold on the importance of defense and the general math of saving runs and producing runs. What can you tell me about defensive metrics to increase me belief in their reliability? It just seems so subjective to me. Isn't it all just an eye test? What are we really measuring with defensive metrics if it's not just someone's subjective opinion on whether the outfielder should have gotten to that ball.

The short answer is that it seems subjective because you're making incorrect assumptions about how they work. There is no subjective determination of whether or not the defender should have caught the ball. The stats are more sophisticated than that. They use historical data to to assess how often balls hit like that to that location are converted to outs and give fielders credit accordingly based on whether or not they actually make the play. It's more complicated than that, but that's the gist of it.

I'd suggest you read the UZR primer at Fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

For past versions of defensive metrics, the subjective element comes in BIS employees coding each batted ball in terms of how well and where it was hit. That was imperfect, thought not exactly rocket science. It's not like they mis-coded a guy from a good fielder to a bad one. It's that a batted ball might occasionally have gotten coded as being marginally more/less valuable and or more/less difficult to field than it was in practice. Even then, those sorts of errors would tend to come out in the wash.

UZR does have its weaknesses. These are actually discussed in the linked article above. But that said, we now have a Statcast based defensive statistic that addresses some of the weaknesses in the other defensive stats.

Ultimately, my challenge is always this: I'm not asking you to accept defensive metrics blindly. I'm asking you to decide what method you think provides you the best estimate the most often. And I would assert that the "I'm just going to use my eyes and my gut" method doesn't actually work very well. It uses much less data and is subject to many more biases than systems like UZR or DRS.

[RedsBrick]

How we feeling now?

I LOVE when my Reds pessimism is shown the door!

Now for the sequel...no way can this team win the division! (Wink, wink)

[Tomlin8]

did todays signing create so much traffic the site went offline? I couldnt get in for hours

[reds77]

I could get in via Google & the Old Red Guard link, but not directly at redszone.com