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Thread: Reds interested in Castellanos

  1. #256
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    This is awesome!!!


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  3. #257
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    zero pants. none.

    very happy.

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    Humberto (01-27-2020)

  5. #258
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    When it comes to scoring more runs than your opponents, there's nothing magical about scoring a few more vs. preventing them. They count in equal proportion.

    If player A generates 20 more runs than player B with his bat but allows 10 more than with his glove, your team is going to come out about 10 runs ahead with player A compared to player B. That's not philosophy. It's basic math.

    Meanwhile, there's no such thing as hiding defense --certainly not in the NL. There are only 8 defensive positions on the field and the balls find each of them at predictable rates. Playing LF doesn't make your bad defense stop counting. "I know that ball scooted by the OF and you're on 2B and drove in a run. But the defender was in LF. So we're not going count that one, OK?" Is that how it works?

    The fact that it is the position on the field where teams tend to play their less talented defenders only means that the pool of players you compare him to is a bit different. We still see a difference of about 20 runs between the best and worst LFs each year. If he's worse defensively than the alternatives, that difference still dings his ability to help your team. The extra runs that score as a result will still count, will take the shine off the extra offense he's providing.

    Now, will his glove give back more runs than his bat creates relative to the other guys the Reds may run out there? Probably not. But burying your head in the sand when it comes to defensive production because of some platitude about behind able to "hide" a defender doesn't help you build a better team. You should at least attempt to account for it.

    Ultimately, the balance of run scoring and run prevention is almost irrelevant. A team that scores 700 runs and allows 650 generally wins the same number of games as the team that scores 800 and allows 750. So if you go out there and start throwing money around while only looking at one side of the equation, that's a recipe for spending your resources quite inefficiently.

    The argument for Castellanos is not his defense won't matter. It's that he's actually going to be much better than a 2 WAR player and/or that the Reds will trade from their OF depth to shore up another genuine weakness.
    I'm sold on the importance of defense and the general math of saving runs and producing runs. What can you tell me about defensive metrics to increase me belief in their reliability? It just seems so subjective to me. Isn't it all just an eye test? What are we really measuring with defensive metrics if it's not just someone's subjective opinion on whether the outfielder should have gotten to that ball.

  6. #259
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Heyman confirming

    Jon Heyman
    @JonHeyman
    ·
    4m
    Castellanos and Reds are now in agreement on deal. Big winter for Cincy.
    Jon Heyman
    @JonHeyman
    ·
    7m
    Reds are moving close to a deal with Nick Castellanos
    Passan too
    Jeff Passan
    @JeffPassan
    ·
    4m
    Outfielder Nicholas Castellanos and the Cincinnati Reds are in agreement on a multiyear contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
    @ctrent
    and
    @Ken_Rosenthal
    were on it.

  7. #260
    Future Fame of Holler WildcatFan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Brb hibernating until Opening Day.
    "I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

  8. #261
    Registered User mattfeet's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    It's a 4 year deal with at least 1 opt out.

  9. #262
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    4 yr deal


    Mark Sheldon
    @m_sheldon
    · 2m
    It's a four-year deal for OF Nick Castellanos and the #reds, sources told me. It was @TheAthleticMLB with the first report. Another huge move for Cincinnati this offseason.
    Includes an opt-out
    Jon Heyman
    @JonHeyman
    ·
    1m
    Castellanos deal is a multiyear deal with at least 1 opt out #reds

  10. #263
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamSelig View Post
    Alright stat junkies... has anyone read any theories on the shift making defense less important? Obviously Suarez is good enough to cover SS in a pinch, but not as a long term solution. But if we run good defensive shifts, wouldn’t that take away from the need for a traditional SS? Obviously you’d still want players with good range to help cover the hitters hot zones, but maybe it isn’t as drastic as traditionally perceived? I haven’t read any theories about this or anything, just a couple thoughts.
    This is the argument I have been presenting for Senzel to SS ever since the Akiyama signing. Fangraphs ran this article when Nick spent the spring of 2018 working on it https://blogs.fangraphs.com/paul-dej...ly-shortstops/.

    Doug posted this article this morning https://redlegnation.com/2020/01/27/...-at-shortstop/

    My feel is that Senzel will supersub at the beginning of the year and then once he feels 100%, he will wrestle away the SS job from Galvis because he is a vastly superior hitter and because range matters less and less in the age of shifting.

  11. #264
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Could start Senzel in AAA to get him SS reps- question is whether his shoulder is up to it.

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    Edd Roush (01-27-2020)

  13. #265
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    4/64 with an opt out

  14. #266
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    I am a Winker fan and a believer in the Wink/Erv platoon.

    But if they nab Castellanos, Winker has to be the odd guy out. The two guys aren't really compatible in the same lineup, and Winker should have some solid trade value...particularly to the AL. Teams always have room for guys that can hit.

    I don't see any reason why 4 years of Winker plus a little something else couldn't land 1 year of Marcus Semien. Slide Senzel over to RF. That's a lineup that could mash.
    Why can't Winker and Castellanos fit in the same line-up? Are you referring more to their lack of defensive range? It would make for a poor defensive OF (unless Akiyama is Billy Hamilton-esque in center), but I think both bats still make up for it.

  15. #267
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Great news - helluva off-season for the Reds !!!

  16. #268
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Put me down for Signing Castellanos, trading Aquino for an impact reliever and Winker, Senzel, Shogo and Cast splitting the 3 OF spots (and 10 DH games). Senzel also gets 30 to 40 starts at 2B (with Moose moving to 1B or 3B as necessary) when Votto, Moose and Suarez rest. Ervin becomes a pure 5th OF/PH/PR double switch guy who may make and occasional start when a couple guys need off at the same time. That makes 8 guys for 7 spots plus Ervin, 2 catchers, a LHPH and utility guy.

    Shogo
    Votto
    Suarez
    Castellanos
    Winker/Senzel
    Moustakas
    Galvis
    Barnhart Pitcher

    Senzel moves between the 1, 2, 5 and 6 holes depending on who is resting. When Suarez sits, Cast hits third and Moose hits 4th. When Cast sits Moose hits 4th.

    Adding Cast while keeping Winker, Votto, Moose, Suarez and Shogo/Senzel is finally enough offense to win with. If they deal Winker to make room, they still need another bat IMO. I'd take my chances with the defense and see how it goes. The defense wasn't all that great last year and the Reds were near the best in runs allowed. I don't see this weakening the defense as much as others do. If it does, they can make a move in-season to reduce Winker's role to LHPH/Trade Bait with Senzel and Shogo both in the game.
    I like your take on this. I love the depth it provides to the offense. I'm thinking it would not be a smart move to trade 4 years of Winker for 1 year of Semien. If Winker plus gets us a SS with multiple years of control, then ok. But I don't think the Dodgers have any use for Winker. The Indians aren't trading Lindor. Not sure I want Correa at this point with his injuries and his cheating. Colorado just extended Story which tells me they aren't trading him. Who does that leave?

  17. #269
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    I like your take on this. I love the depth it provides to the offense. I'm thinking it would not be a smart move to trade 4 years of Winker for 1 year of Semien. If Winker plus gets us a SS with multiple years of control, then ok. But I don't think the Dodgers have any use for Winker. The Indians aren't trading Lindor. Not sure I want Correa at this point with his injuries and his cheating. Colorado just extended Story which tells me they aren't trading him. Who does that leave?
    They still have Garrett Hampson and Brendan Rodgers. Maybe one of them could be available.

  18. #270
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    Re: Reds interested in Castellanos

    Quote Originally Posted by UPRedsFan View Post
    Colorado just extended Story which tells me they aren't trading him. Who does that leave?
    I believe they just bought out arbitration years and didn't secure any free agent years in that deal. I'm not sure that makes any real difference on his availability or not.

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    Rojo Rijo (01-27-2020)


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