Reds interested in Castellanos

[Ladeda]

I’ve been hoping for Castellanos all along. I don’t have anything to back it up, but I feel like getting him out of Detroit and into a more hitter friendly park (ie, his time with The Cubs) is going to take him to a next level. And he’s young.

So he may not quite duplicate what he did in Chicago, but I think he’s gonna be improved regardless. And he was already good.

Sign me up as long as the money isn’t crazy.

Agree.

[Griffey012]

There is also zero chance Tampa trades him.

I wholeheartedly agree.

[TRF]

Not me. You’re getting a sure thing MVP candidate in Lindor. Franco might be that at some point, he’s extremely unlikely to be that this year or next year, and that’s realistically what our best case window is.

Cleveland still thinks they can contend as is. They won a lot of games last year without Kluber, so unless they want to go into a rebuild mode, even a soft rebuild, it makes sense for them to keep him.

There is also zero chance Tampa trades him.

Trea Turner and Tatis Jr. were traded by the teams that originally signed them.

This article is 4 years old, but it shows that top prospects do get dealt. https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb...ory-c210477932

No prospect is untouchable. And you can overwhelm a team to get a player. Toronto had to give up a boatload to get RA Dickey, including Thor.

[NeilHamburger]

I know most here think this type of stuff doesn't matter, but I also like that Castellanos plays with an edge to him. I think this team could use a little fire.

[westofyou]

That key infield position is becoming less and less important given advanced defensive positioning and less batted balls in play.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-mor...sive-spectrum/

Moving Senzel to short would definitely break tradition, but smaller market teams like the Reds need to innovate to gain whatever competitive advantage they can.

In 2018, the Reds saw Jose Peraza having a solid year and Billy Hamilton's time in Cincinnati coming to an end. The Reds were going to have a gaping hole in CF in 2019. It made sense to move Senzel to CF at that time.

Going into 2020, the only positions not locked in are RF and SS. Senzel's bat would be much more valuable at SS than in RF.

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Please see the other post I just put up regarding why the Reds may have made a quick move away from Senzel at SS. It could have easily been because they wanted a Billy Hamilton replacement and could not have seen Shogo joining the Reds for 2020 - 2022.

It's all theory IMO and if a team wants to take a chance at changing the SS position I don't think a team on the cusp would want to be that test case

[Edd Roush]

It's all theory IMO and if a team wants to take a chance at changing the SS position I don't think a team on the cusp would want to be that test case

I would argue that a team on the cusp has the most reason to be the test case. If the price is too high for the SSs speculated as available in trade (Lindor, etc), the Reds need to find a way to give themselves a chance to have 3+ WAR SS to push themselves further up the win curve. Marginal wins matter more to the 2020 Reds than the 2018 Reds because they are closer to contention.

Freddy Galvis has had five chances and never really come close to 3 fWAR. Brock Holt could give the Reds a better chance than Galvis, but Senzel has much more offensive upside than both.

[Rdirtypirates]

Cleveland still thinks they can contend as is. They won a lot of games last year without Kluber, so unless they want to go into a rebuild mode, even a soft rebuild, it makes sense for them to keep him.



Trea Turner and Tatis Jr. were traded by the teams that originally signed them.

This article is 4 years old, but it shows that top prospects do get dealt. https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb...ory-c210477932

No prospect is untouchable. And you can overwhelm a team to get a player. Toronto had to give up a boatload to get RA Dickey, including Thor.

I guess it could happen, but I don't see Tampa as that team.They will get their three or four years out of him until he becomes expensive then he will be traded.

As for Castellanos, do what it takes to get him. They still need one for sure bat. It was not Ozuna, but I think Castellanos is that guy. Figure out the glut of ofs after he puts pen to paper.

[MikeS21]

"Did not have an immediate positive outcome" is bizarre phrasing. They completely abandoned the plan. Moving Senzel to SS went so well, they moved him to CF.

And the Shogo and Moustakas signings make perfect sense if the Reds are lukewarm on Senzel. That's the most direct line toward understanding those moves. The Reds wanted upgrades.

Actually, the organization gave Jonathan India a longer look at SS than they did Senzel. And the main reason that they abandoned the India experiment wasn’t that he was horrible, but that he was taking away valuable playing time from more natural SS’s who were putting up just as good of numbers at the plate.

But all the talk of Senzel and Suarez to SS is not going to happen. Or Jonathan India.

[Griffey012]

Cleveland still thinks they can contend as is. They won a lot of games last year without Kluber, so unless they want to go into a rebuild mode, even a soft rebuild, it makes sense for them to keep him.



Trea Turner and Tatis Jr. were traded by the teams that originally signed them.

This article is 4 years old, but it shows that top prospects do get dealt. https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-mlb...ory-c210477932

No prospect is untouchable. And you can overwhelm a team to get a player. Toronto had to give up a boatload to get RA Dickey, including Thor.

Turner and Tatis don’t compare. Turner was traded a year or so after the draft and wasn’t the unanimous #1 prospect doing things that 18 years olds just don’t do in A ball. Tatis was a nobody, who blew up after the trade.

The closest comp is probably the Red Sox trading Moncada. However, organizational differences make it 99.999% certain the Rays won’t trade Franco. A team like the Red Sox might.

[Tuff Nut]

There is also zero chance Tampa trades him.

Then what about Willy Adames?.. He shouldn't cost near as much in prospects or are the Reds better off just rolling with Galvis?

[M2]

I would argue that a team on the cusp has the most reason to be the test case. If the price is too high for the SSs speculated as available in trade (Lindor, etc), the Reds need to find a way to give themselves a chance to have 3+ WAR SS to push themselves further up the win curve. Marginal wins matter more to the 2020 Reds than the 2018 Reds because they are closer to contention.

Freddy Galvis has had five chances and never really come close to 3 fWAR. Brock Holt could give the Reds a better chance than Galvis, but Senzel has much more offensive upside than both.

The Reds have a SS. His name is Freddy Galvis. He's been worth 4.0 WAR the past two seasons (bWAR, not the four-letter f word). They picked up a $5.5M option to keep him. Conservatively, Senzel would need a 4.0 oWAR bat in order to deliver a 3.0 WAR. Last season he had a 0.8 oWAR bat. So, I don't know where you're plucking these numbers from. Senzel's more likely to give you 0.0 WAR (or worse) at SS than 3.0. And Brock Holt has never been more than a spot SS. He's not very good at. He turns 32 this season. And we might want to discount anything his bat can deliver based on him not knowing what pitches are coming in 2020.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I would argue that a team on the cusp has the most reason to be the test case. If the price is too high for the SSs speculated as available in trade (Lindor, etc), the Reds need to find a way to give themselves a chance to have 3+ WAR SS to push themselves further up the win curve. Marginal wins matter more to the 2020 Reds than the 2018 Reds because they are closer to contention.

Freddy Galvis has had five chances and never really come close to 3 fWAR. Brock Holt could give the Reds a better chance than Galvis, but Senzel has much more offensive upside than both.

I appreciate your passion on the topic and I think you make some valid points. At the end of the day, I just don't see this being the offseason to do it. Senzel just started throwing after shoulder surgery. If he was taking ground balls all offseason at SS, that's one thing but throwing him in the deep end immediately after surgery just seems unlikely.

[M2]

But all the talk of Senzel and Suarez to SS is not going to happen. Or Jonathan India.

It's just new renditions of Dmitri Young to 3B.

[Edd Roush]

The Reds have a SS. His name is Freddy Galvis. He's been worth 4.0 WAR the past two seasons (bWAR, not the four-letter f word). They picked up a $5.5M option to keep him. Conservatively, Senzel would need a 4.0 oWAR bat in order to deliver a 3.0 WAR. Last season he had a 0.8 oWAR bat. So, I don't know where you're plucking these numbers from. Senzel's more likely to give you 0.0 WAR (or worse) at SS than 3.0. And Brock Holt has never been more than a spot SS. He's not very good at. He turns 32 this season. And we might want to discount anything his bat can deliver based on him not knowing what pitches are coming in 2020.

We can make alterations to projection systems based upon information that we can factor in that the projection systems cannot. Most of the projection systems put the most weight on the most recent year's results and that usually makes sense. However, in the case of Senzel who was hurt for most of the year, it paints him in a worse light than he should be painted. I expect Nick to hit much closer to .300 than .256 where he finished last year. Steamer has him at .260 and ZiPS has him at .261. I agree on the BB rate being around 8%, but expect a greater power output than the .171 ISO he had last year that Steamer has him projected at and which is very similar to the .174 that ZiPS has him at.

A .285/.350/.485 batting line is what I expect Senzel to put up in 2020 and I do not think Freddy Galvis will come close. The offensive difference more than makes up for the defensive shortcomings and I expect Senzel to be the superior baserunner.

[Kc61]

Had Reds not acquired Moose, I could have seen Senzel at second base.

I don’t see him at shortstop, which Reds undoubtedly still feel is a very important defensive position.

I’ve read comments from Bell saying that he plans for Senzel to continue to grow in CF this year.

So I think it’s an academic discussion. I’m guessing Reds will beef up the shortstop position either with a new starter or a good backup player who can play some shortstop.