Reds interested in Castellanos

[M2]

We can make alterations to projection systems based upon information that we can factor in that the projection systems cannot. Most of the projection systems put the most weight on the most recent year's results and that usually makes sense. However, in the case of Senzel who was hurt for most of the year, it paints him in a worse light than he should be painted. I expect Nick to hit much closer to .300 than .256 where he finished last year. Steamer has him at .260 and ZiPS has him at .261. I agree on the BB rate being around 8%, but expect a greater power output than the .171 ISO he had last year that Steamer has him projected at and which is very similar to the .174 that ZiPS has him at.

A .285/.350/.485 batting line is what I expect Senzel to put up in 2020 and I do not think Freddy Galvis will come close. The offensive difference more than makes up for the defensive shortcomings and I expect Senzel to be the superior baserunner.

I have no idea if Senzel's even going to be healthy to start the season, or if his injury will have any lingering effects. Yet even your bullish projection for Senzel only gives him an oWAR in the 2.0-2.2 range. Now start subtracting for defense. I'll take Galvis. And Galvis was worth more on the bases last season (0.0 Rbaser) than Senzel (-0.1).

[Patrick Bateman]

I assume if we add another OF that the plan would be to move Senzel for a SS. It just makes sense. Switching Senzel to a new key position with a very unclear picture of the short term ROI is not a move a contending team makes.

But being able to package Senzel for a legit starting SS while being able to replace him in the OF feels like the easiest move to make a mega improvement to the bottom line results of this team for the next 2 years.

Sign me up.

[TRF]

Dansby Swanson, Trevor Bauer, Addison Russell, Gleyber Torres, Lewis Brinson.

None of these guys were #1, true. They were likely their team's top prospect though. Hell the Reds dealt 3 of their own top prospects for Latos. Suarez was the Tigers #5 prospect when he was dealt for the corpse of Alfredo Simon.

Here is how Franco won't be dealt: if no one tries to get him. Maybe TB is that high on the kid and refuse all offers. But to reject 5 players including the team's #1 prospect from last year, it's #5 this year, the upside of Mahle, a depth piece in Garcia PLUS Winker? That's a haul, and no way does TB slam the phone down on that. Franco doesn't move the needle for them this year. But they won 96 games last year in a loaded AL East. Those 5 guys could get them the division, regardless of what the Yankees did this offseason.

But the Rays did make a lot of moves this offseason and might feel they have addressed their needs. You don't know unless you ask. I don't think the Reds would ask. I think they are too enamored with their own to see them potentially succeed elsewhere.

The Reds haven't developed a SS it seams since DiDi, and they didn't reap the benefits of him. SS is the area of weakness, so the Reds need to go really big to fill it.

[kaldaniels]

I’d push a ton of chips in towards Franco for what it’s worth. But so much depends on Tampa’s mindset I can’t waste brain power thinking about it. Go for it Reds. But prepared to be denied.

[Rdirtypirates]

Then what about Willy Adames?.. He shouldn't cost near as much in prospects or are the Reds better off just rolling with Galvis?

He wouldn't be a bad target, and is more likely imo. I think that if they truly wanna be contenders they will find some way to upgrade SS.

[[deleted]]

One thing to keep in mind regarding Senzel as a SS is the timing/circumstance of it all. The Puig/Kemp/Wood trade put an onus on the team to view 2019 as a competitive year, remember, and Peraza was coming off a promising 2018. There was no real in-house CF option, so even if the powers-that-be thought Senzel could handle SS (however subpar-ly), they may have figured it was better to keep Peraza entrenched in the IF. Of course at the time they made that decision they weren’t planning on a future that included Peraza sucking his way to a DFA.

So who knows? It’s possible they saw Senzel as “passable-but-less-than-ideal” or even “below-average-but-possible-in-a-pinch.” At the time they decided it wasn’t worth it, but with the glut of OF (especially if Castellanos is brought in), the desperation for offense, and a glaring hole up the middle, maybe now they reassess?

Honestly I’m less concerned with how he takes to SS specifically and more with the constant shuffling of positions. I’d really like him to be able to just focus on hitting, but this admittedly would solve most issues with the lineup.

The impact trade targets all seem like wishful thinking to me. Cleveland has flat out said they won’t trade Lindor, the Arenado comments make dealing Story right now a PR disaster, and I never managed to find any cogent argument for why the World Series-starved Dodgers would entertain dealing Seager.

Franco is definitely not happening, but Adames is intriguing. TB has a ton of IF, but how many of them can really cover SS if they were to trade him?

[savafan]

I think you could get Franco from Tampa, but it will cost Castillo, at the very least


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[Tracy Jones]

What about Brandon Phillips at SS? It can work!

[Benihana]

Not saying I would or wouldn’t, but Senzel, Greene and Lodolo for Franco who says no?

[NebraskaRed]

What about Brandon Phillips at SS? It can work!

Hey, he's still out there trying to get signed. Last year he played in an independent league with his brother, and then went down to Mexico to play some more.

2020 can be his big comeback year.

[RedTeamGo!]

Not saying I would or wouldn’t, but Senzel, Greene and Lodolo for Franco who says no?

Rays

[JaxRed]

Rays

They might. But I'm definitely ok with keeping them (and Jose Garcia). One thing for sure, we'll know a whole lot more about all of then come October. Except maybe Lodolo. He may be the surest thing. (#2-#3 starter).

[Kc61]

Reds probably became more disciplined in their offers after they roped in Moose.

They said they would be more “opportunistic” after that signing.

Ok, but downside is Reds haven’t added that second impact bat (with Moose) and haven’t upgraded short or catcher.

So we’ll see whether this discipline will backfire and leave them empty-handed at the end. Or whether Reds’ patience will pay off by pulling off a favorable signing or a good trade as the off-season closes.

[Red Soup]

A league-leading 58 doubles in 2019. Plus the 27 home runs.

And he's still 27.

This could be one of those sneaky, franchise-changing signings.

And watching how the dominos fall (I say some slobberknocker lands us Seager) will occupy our minds until the warmth arrives.

[membengal]

Reds probably became more disciplined in their offers after they roped in Moose.

They said they would be more “opportunistic” after that signing.

Ok, but downside is Reds haven’t added that second impact bat (with Moose) and haven’t upgraded short or catcher.

So we’ll see whether this discipline will backfire and leave them empty-handed at the end. Or whether Reds’ patience will pay off by pulling off a favorable signing or a good trade as the off-season closes.

Yup. Exactly point I made/matches my view from the opinions thread.