One of Dick Williams biggest foci as Red Big Boss has been to create and follow an analytic bend throughout the organization. One of the interesting places wherein we see some limited analytics is in how Williams has added free agents for specific roles in the batting order.
Most of the Cincinnati lineup was around league average or slightly better. The biggest relative holes were cleanup and 6th place hitters.
Cincinnati cleanup guys sucked. Free agent Mike Moustakas' ZiPS projection-- .270/ .332/ .521/ .853 and a 118 wRC+-- would add 34 points to last season's pathetic 84 wRC+! That's a massive jump that could pay huge dividends in lineup construction. Kudos, Williams, right?
That said, the inadequacy of cleanup hitters pales in comparison to Cincinnati's 6th place hitters. They were 29th in the league. That batting line-- a .653 OPS and a 67 wRC+, among other anemic numbers-- wasn't just bad. By comparison, the best 6th place hitters (Astros) produced almost double the wRC+ of Cincinnati hitters. Ostensibly, the lineup hole should be bolstered by the Jesse Winker/ Phil Ervin platoon. ZiPS likes Winker (a 112 projected bat) and thinks Ervin is just slightly worse than league average. (He mashes against LH, and Szymborski's projections largely ignore that a reduced role could see a massive jump in production).
Perhaps that platoon makes more sense in the 5 hole in the lineup. If so, some combination of Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino would be the next logical step. ZiPS thinks each of those bats are somewhere around five points below league average and 30-ish percent better than what the Reds trotted out there in 2019. Depth pieces VanMeter and Payton also project to be around five percent below league average. A league average six hole bat would get them in the top half of the league.
Reds' 7th place hitters had a 2019 wRC+ of 74 that ranked tied for 22nd in the league. This year, Szymborski projects Freddy Galvis to be an 80 wRC+ bat. His backups, Blandino, VanMeter, and Farmer, are adequate enough (again, according to ZiPS) to see a slight rise in performance, perhaps to 20th overall. This is an area of weakness that needs to be addressed.
Some thoughts:
1. Adding Akiyama added depth and a glove, but it didn't do much to the lineup. He projects to be what Senzel was in 2019. As a RF platoon guy, perhaps that makes sense... Maybe? If he's a fourth OF, does that mean Senzel moves around in the batting order? I would think someone would have to, and he makes the most sense. (Unless he blossoms into the All-Star level bat he showed in the minors.)
2. Speaking of RF, it will be fascinating to see what is done with the Cincinnati OF. Szymborski says, in his analysis of the Reds, that each could blossom and each could fall on his face. Winker, at this point, looks like a stabilizing force, but he's a platoon guy.
3. Adding Castellanos as the 5 hole bat and moving a LF platoon to 6 would seem to be a boon to the lineup. A 5 hitter who projects to be a 112 - 115 wRC+ bat would rank in the top 10 of the league. Moving a Winker/ Ervin (Winker/ Aquino?) platoon bat to the 6 hole would also put it in the top 10. That would, of course, limit Aquino. And Senzel. And Ervin. Have I mentioned how odd the OF is?
4. SS is an offensive hole. Galvis projects to be 20% below league average as a hitter. At this point, I'd be interested in what VanMeter might be able to do with about half the SS ABs. Because that's a big hole in the lineup. Galvis will have to be Gold Glove brilliant for his spot in the everyday lineup to even make a little sense. And I don't think he's that type of glove guy. Senzel to SS would solve just about every one of these issues, btw. Just sayin'.
5. Overall, this lineup projects to be league average, but its upside and downside is considerable. Suarez is awesome. Who's the next star? Moustakas would seem to be a third wheel kind of guy. Winker may blossom into that, but he's a platoon guy. Senzel has the capability, but where is he going to play? Ditto Aquino. Adequacy but not All-Star.
6. Depth is pretty solid. One way in which Williams has improved the club consistently is in finding depth pieces that don't hurt the squad. This year, there is (much) more depth that may play significant parts for the Reds. Farmer and Ervin hit southpaws really well last year and can play multiple spots. Winker hits RH. The OF has two more guys-- VanMeter and Payton-- who project to be just slightly less than league average hitters at multiple positions. The infield has Matt Davidson as a corner guy who mashes lefties. (I'm coming around on him as a bench option/ DH/ PH.) There is a hole at SS. (Have I mentioned that before?)