Batting Order Holes

[Bourgeois Zee]

One of Dick Williams biggest foci as Red Big Boss has been to create and follow an analytic bend throughout the organization. One of the interesting places wherein we see some limited analytics is in how Williams has added free agents for specific roles in the batting order.

Most of the Cincinnati lineup was around league average or slightly better. The biggest relative holes were cleanup and 6th place hitters.

Cincinnati cleanup guys sucked. Free agent Mike Moustakas' ZiPS projection-- .270/ .332/ .521/ .853 and a 118 wRC+-- would add 34 points to last season's pathetic 84 wRC+! That's a massive jump that could pay huge dividends in lineup construction. Kudos, Williams, right?

That said, the inadequacy of cleanup hitters pales in comparison to Cincinnati's 6th place hitters. They were 29th in the league. That batting line-- a .653 OPS and a 67 wRC+, among other anemic numbers-- wasn't just bad. By comparison, the best 6th place hitters (Astros) produced almost double the wRC+ of Cincinnati hitters. Ostensibly, the lineup hole should be bolstered by the Jesse Winker/ Phil Ervin platoon. ZiPS likes Winker (a 112 projected bat) and thinks Ervin is just slightly worse than league average. (He mashes against LH, and Szymborski's projections largely ignore that a reduced role could see a massive jump in production).

Perhaps that platoon makes more sense in the 5 hole in the lineup. If so, some combination of Nick Senzel and Aristides Aquino would be the next logical step. ZiPS thinks each of those bats are somewhere around five points below league average and 30-ish percent better than what the Reds trotted out there in 2019. Depth pieces VanMeter and Payton also project to be around five percent below league average. A league average six hole bat would get them in the top half of the league.

Reds' 7th place hitters had a 2019 wRC+ of 74 that ranked tied for 22nd in the league. This year, Szymborski projects Freddy Galvis to be an 80 wRC+ bat. His backups, Blandino, VanMeter, and Farmer, are adequate enough (again, according to ZiPS) to see a slight rise in performance, perhaps to 20th overall. This is an area of weakness that needs to be addressed.

Some thoughts:
1. Adding Akiyama added depth and a glove, but it didn't do much to the lineup. He projects to be what Senzel was in 2019. As a RF platoon guy, perhaps that makes sense... Maybe? If he's a fourth OF, does that mean Senzel moves around in the batting order? I would think someone would have to, and he makes the most sense. (Unless he blossoms into the All-Star level bat he showed in the minors.)

2. Speaking of RF, it will be fascinating to see what is done with the Cincinnati OF. Szymborski says, in his analysis of the Reds, that each could blossom and each could fall on his face. Winker, at this point, looks like a stabilizing force, but he's a platoon guy.

3. Adding Castellanos as the 5 hole bat and moving a LF platoon to 6 would seem to be a boon to the lineup. A 5 hitter who projects to be a 112 - 115 wRC+ bat would rank in the top 10 of the league. Moving a Winker/ Ervin (Winker/ Aquino?) platoon bat to the 6 hole would also put it in the top 10. That would, of course, limit Aquino. And Senzel. And Ervin. Have I mentioned how odd the OF is?

4. SS is an offensive hole. Galvis projects to be 20% below league average as a hitter. At this point, I'd be interested in what VanMeter might be able to do with about half the SS ABs. Because that's a big hole in the lineup. Galvis will have to be Gold Glove brilliant for his spot in the everyday lineup to even make a little sense. And I don't think he's that type of glove guy. Senzel to SS would solve just about every one of these issues, btw. Just sayin'.

5. Overall, this lineup projects to be league average, but its upside and downside is considerable. Suarez is awesome. Who's the next star? Moustakas would seem to be a third wheel kind of guy. Winker may blossom into that, but he's a platoon guy. Senzel has the capability, but where is he going to play? Ditto Aquino. Adequacy but not All-Star.

6. Depth is pretty solid. One way in which Williams has improved the club consistently is in finding depth pieces that don't hurt the squad. This year, there is (much) more depth that may play significant parts for the Reds. Farmer and Ervin hit southpaws really well last year and can play multiple spots. Winker hits RH. The OF has two more guys-- VanMeter and Payton-- who project to be just slightly less than league average hitters at multiple positions. The infield has Matt Davidson as a corner guy who mashes lefties. (I'm coming around on him as a bench option/ DH/ PH.) There is a hole at SS. (Have I mentioned that before?)

[mth123]

Good post and topic. My thoughts.

1. If the Reds add no one, I still think we're looking at a mix and match OF. That would provide a line-up that is fairly well set with Senzel, as you suggest, being the swing man. When Akiyama plays, he probably hits first. IMO, that's a lot of faith in his on base ability translating, but they really haven't got a lot of other options. That would leave Aquino or Senzel as the other OFer hitting sixth. When Akiyama sits, Senzel moves into the lead-off spot with Aquino hitting 6th. The other spots seem set to me. Votto 2nd, Suarez 3rd, Moustakas 4th, Winker/Ervin 5th. I'd probably go Galvis 7 and Barnhart 8. I actually think Barnhart is a better overall bat than Galvis, but a lot of his success comes with his ability to take the walks they give him hitting in front of the pitcher. Meanwhile, I think Galvis will get himself out reaching when they pitch around him. In the 7 hole it won't happen as much and his occasional HR power fits fairly well.

2. I think 6, 7, 8, 9, 1 and 2 are all slots that will be below overall league average as is and 6 through 9 might be a breeze for the opposing pitcher. OTOH, if Akiyama comes through, Senzel steps forward and Votto bounces back, they could be a juggernaut. I could see a Senzel, Akiyama, Votto top three getting on base a lot with Suarez, Moose and Winker/Ervin driving them in.

3. If they'd sign Castellanos, Akiyama/Senzel would share the top spot, then Votto, Suarez, Castellanos, Winker/Ervin, Moose IMO. That looks a ton better. Trade Aquino for a back end bullpen guy. Ervin may lose some PT with Senzel getting his PAs as Winker's platoon mate as well as providing relief in CF, RF and maybe the IF, but for now, they say no, so I'll guess no (though I'd play him at second base when ever Moose, Suarez or Votto sit with Moose being the guy who moves around). If Senzel were to be that supersub type, while limiting him defensively to a couple of positions, he could still fill in at all positions other than C and SS. He'd get plenty of PT. Votto's problems last year were more about his back than his approach (I think his back was the reason for the funky swings and choking up). I'd rest him at least one game per well to see if I could keep him fresh and healthy. That would make a lot of PT for Senzel as a supersub.

[Bourgeois Zee]

2. I think 6, 7, 8, 9, 1 and 2 are all slots that will be below overall league average as is and 6 through 9 might be a breeze for the opposing pitcher.

Below league average in terms of overall wRC+ or below league average for the order slot?

Because that's a huge difference.

[mth123]

Below league average in terms of overall wRC+ or below league average for the order slot?

Because that's a huge difference.

Overall. Don't care about the slot. That's too subject to how batting orders are made. I think we need to look at it as a whole and they need 6 guys above overall league average to be a serious championship contender. I get the that Reds may sneak in with less because the division seems weaker than it was, and that would make for a fun season, but they need to compete with the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees. That's how I want the team put together.

[InsaneinthBrame]

MTH you and others may want to built a team that competes with Astros Dodgers and Yankees but that is not reasonable at this point since the Reds are not capable at developing it own talent like these teams have shown recently. And we are not going to see an influx of homegrown talent any time soon. Only 2 players in latest top 100 prospects list.

[Bourgeois Zee]

So I'm bringing this back to the top with the new Castellanos signing.

The Reds didn't just boost Castellanos' spot in the batting order. He's likely to hit fifth, IMO. He projects to be around 10% better than a platoon of Winker and Ervin (or Aquino or Senzel or whatever league average-ish RH hitter Cincinnati platoons him with).

That drops the Winker platoon (assuming that's the plan) to the six hole-- which strengthens it by about 10%. (Winker projects to be about 12% better than league average.)