Reds sign OF Nicholas Castellanos to four-year deal

[Chip R]

blech.

If he could handle SS, he'd have been the SS last year. or gotten significant time there in AAA. That ship stays docked.

I agree he isn't/wasn't a SS but he was never going to start the season with the Reds last year no matter where he played. They had Peraza and signed Iglesias. He wasn't going to play 2nd cause Scooter was there. CF was the only logical spot for him/

[REDREAD]

Players who have received the QO still seem to have a more difficult time signing, often for less than what the QO was. While it may not be as big of deal anymore, if you are comparing two similar players, and one has the QO and one doesn't, guess who has a more favorable situation.

Go back and look over the past 5 years and see what kinds of contracts were given to the mid level free agent players. The top guys are still getting PAID, but the second tier, the guys who are good, maybe all stars, maybe fringe MVP candidates, maybe guys who get a vote or two, aren't getting paid. They are capping out around the $16-$18M and they aren't getting more than four years.

Honestly, I think the Reds brass knows that unless something very unlikely happens, Castellanos deal right now is the best long term deal he is going to get. If he opts out, he may be playing the FA market for years to come.

Ok, I did what you said.. I went back to the 2014-2015 offseason and looked at what FAs got. Here's the big winners. (end of post)
The landscape then is very similar to what it is today. There's been some salary inflation but not a lot.
The big starts (Schertzer, Lester, Hanley Rameriez) got paid well, the mid-level guys are getting paid a little bit less than what they are today.
I really don't think that Castellanos (and guys similar to him) are getting underpaid compared to 5 years ago.
I also believe that the lower penalty for QO makes it a nonfactor now. No one really cares if they have to give up a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.. that's a negligible cost, even to a small market team.

Is there someone this year that had a QO attached to them who is having a hard time getting signed?
CAstellanos really didn't have a hard time getting signed, IMO. He had multiple suitors, his agent wanted to wait things off and he got a fantastic contract. He's guaranteed an average of 16 million a year. If he has a good year in 2020 or 2021, he can hit FA again.. It really doesn't get much better than that for a guy of his level. No downside at all. That doesn't mean it was a bad deal for the Reds though.

I really don't see anyone in this year's FA class getting hosed. They all seem to be getting paid fairly, but maybe I am overlooking someone?
If that was not the point you were making, I apologize


Lester 25 million
Nelson Cruz 14 million
JJ Hardy 13 million
LaRoche 12 million
Linero 13 million
Russel Martin 16 million
Victor Martinez 17 million (4 years)
Peavy 12 million
Hanley Rameriez 22 million (4 years)
A Rameriz 14 million
Ervin Sanatana 13 million
Schertzer 30 million
James Shields 18 million
and a few others at 10-12 million per year that I left out.

[Patrick Bateman]

If he hits 40HR and 50 doubles, he’ll be outta here 5 minutes after the WS ends... I guess if we are wearing the ring it doesn’t matter. :-/

In this instance, the Reds might have won the WS, netted a 1st round pick, and only paid $14M.

[Griffey012]

The 24 HR's Siri hit in Dayton almost equaled the Rule 5 guy's career total prior to last year. (btw, I'm going to keep calling him that. no need to remember his name, he's headed back to the team the Reds claimed him from.)

Siri has power. The Reds changed the stance/approach of Aquino, VanMeter and the notorious BOG. All saw huge improvements in their offensive game because of it. Will Siri, given the chance, see the same or similar improvements? If he goes unclaimed, we might see, and he might be a diamond in the rough.

Probably nothing comes of it, but for a change, I'm not down on the Reds development staff. It seems they finally have a system/philosophy when it comes to hitting and pitching. Bodes well, I think.

That's a lot of extra typing for a poorly executed swipe at Mark Payton.

Siri hit 24 HR's combined in 2018-2019 with a K rate north of 30% and an OBP less than .300. He is a mess at the plate. Yes, he has raw power and tools but he has shown no ability to get to that power against pitching above A ball. Payton changed his swing and hit 30 bombs last year in a crazy hitters environment, but he has always shown a good approach and contact, just not a lot of power. He at least might be able to hit MLB pitching as it currently stands. Siri needs a massive development jump to be able to do so. Seems like an easy call on which one to drop from the 40 man roster. Dropping Siri now especially makes sense because the odds of getting him back are pretty high considering most teams have bloated 40 mans due to rule 5 picks, etc. Say the Reds are already working with Siri on a swing overhaul and it is shows promise during ST, if he is still a victim of a 40 man roster crunch at the end of Spring Training he is a lot more likely to be picked up by another team then compared to now. Best case is the Reds get Siri back ala Aquino.

[Ron Madden]

"This whole experience is kind of surreal," Castellanos said, after being presented with his No. 2 jersey. "I'm just excited. I really like this team that we have put together."

"Coming over here and facing the starting pitching the Reds have, I know how dangerous it can be," Castellanos said. "And playing with a couple of guys on the Reds throughout the Minor Leagues, and against them in my career, I'm excited. That's pretty much all I can say." Asked what his expectations are with the team the Reds have put together for 2020, Castellanos' answer was simple.
"Win."

The Reds now have the offense to match a strong pitching staff led by Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer.

"We really went into this offseason challenging ourselves internally to get the hitting -- to balance the team," president of baseball operations Dick Williams said. "With the deals we've completed with Shogo, Moose and now Nick, I think we've put this team in a position where they've got a very balanced approach, both sides of the ball, and the chance to be very dangerous in our division."

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/nick-c...oduced-by-reds

[bucksfan2]

Ok, I did what you said.. I went back to the 2014-2015 offseason and looked at what FAs got. Here's the big winners. (end of post)
The landscape then is very similar to what it is today. There's been some salary inflation but not a lot.
The big starts (Schertzer, Lester, Hanley Rameriez) got paid well, the mid-level guys are getting paid a little bit less than what they are today.
I really don't think that Castellanos (and guys similar to him) are getting underpaid compared to 5 years ago.
I also believe that the lower penalty for QO makes it a nonfactor now. No one really cares if they have to give up a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick.. that's a negligible cost, even to a small market team.

Is there someone this year that had a QO attached to them who is having a hard time getting signed?
CAstellanos really didn't have a hard time getting signed, IMO. He had multiple suitors, his agent wanted to wait things off and he got a fantastic contract. He's guaranteed an average of 16 million a year. If he has a good year in 2020 or 2021, he can hit FA again.. It really doesn't get much better than that for a guy of his level. No downside at all. That doesn't mean it was a bad deal for the Reds though.

I really don't see anyone in this year's FA class getting hosed. They all seem to be getting paid fairly, but maybe I am overlooking someone?
If that was not the point you were making, I apologize


Lester 25 million
Nelson Cruz 14 million
JJ Hardy 13 million
LaRoche 12 million
Linero 13 million
Russel Martin 16 million
Victor Martinez 17 million (4 years)
Peavy 12 million
Hanley Rameriez 22 million (4 years)
A Rameriz 14 million
Ervin Sanatana 13 million
Schertzer 30 million
James Shields 18 million
and a few others at 10-12 million per year that I left out.

I guess here is my point. The big stars are still getting paid, and that won't stop anytime soon. Pitchers will still get paid, because there is such a need for quality pitchers. But once you remove the top tier of FA's, that next tier has pretty much been capped out.

One thing that has been happening is teams are getting smarter. They aren't signing aging players to long term deals. They aren't paying big dollars into a players declining years. They will pay for peak years, but they are more judicial about that. Here is what I like about the deal for the Reds, they have downside protection. If Castellanos stinks, they can exercise the opt out in year one or year two. It limits the exposure to a bad contract. To a contract that drains the team. I also don't think Castellanos the player is going to make more annually than $16-$18M/season. His type of player has been pretty much capped in that area for a number of years. Lets say he has a career year and puts up a 3.0-4.0 WAR. He may opt out of his contract, but what is he going to get in FA? Is he going to get more? He may get more, but probably not that much more. Grandal is a decent comp, who got 16M and then signed a contract with the White Sox for roughly 18M/year. Although Grandal plays a position that is much higher in demand, their numbers can be similar.

I think the opt out early in the contract poses a tremendous amount of risk to Castellanos. I don't see a team giving him substantially more money, in fact, I think if he does opt out he may be playing for a year by year contract. Certanily he can make more, but the risk is there if he has a bad year, that salary could drop.

[RedlegJake]

I guess here is my point. The big stars are still getting paid, and that won't stop anytime soon. Pitchers will still get paid, because there is such a need for quality pitchers. But once you remove the top tier of FA's, that next tier has pretty much been capped out.

One thing that has been happening is teams are getting smarter. They aren't signing aging players to long term deals. They aren't paying big dollars into a players declining years. They will pay for peak years, but they are more judicial about that. Here is what I like about the deal for the Reds, they have downside protection. If Castellanos stinks, they can exercise the opt out in year one or year two. It limits the exposure to a bad contract. To a contract that drains the team. I also don't think Castellanos the player is going to make more annually than $16-$18M/season. His type of player has been pretty much capped in that area for a number of years. Lets say he has a career year and puts up a 3.0-4.0 WAR. He may opt out of his contract, but what is he going to get in FA? Is he going to get more? He may get more, but probably not that much more. Grandal is a decent comp, who got 16M and then signed a contract with the White Sox for roughly 18M/year. Although Grandal plays a position that is much higher in demand, their numbers can be similar.

I think the opt out early in the contract poses a tremendous amount of risk to Castellanos. I don't see a team giving him substantially more money, in fact, I think if he does opt out he may be playing for a year by year contract. Certanily he can make more, but the risk is there if he has a bad year, that salary could drop.

I don't think this is right - the opt out is a player option, not a team option. If he has a bad year then he simply stays with the contract, if he blows up the league he opts out for a bigger payday. The reward for the Reds is if he opts out they can QO him and get a draft pick, plus they have the cash to buy up another FA but the Reds take all the risk of him having a poor season (not that I think that is likely, he's been very steady)

[HammerTime]

I don't think this is right - the opt out is a player option, not a team option. If he has a bad year then he simply stays with the contract, if he blows up the league he opts out for a bigger payday. The reward for the Reds is if he opts out they can QO him and get a draft pick, plus they have the cash to buy up another FA but the Reds take all the risk of him having a poor season (not that I think that is likely, he's been very steady)

Correct, it's a player option.

[Sea Ray]

The opt out would be really cool if it was available to both sides but it's not. The team never gets the opt out option

[Phoenix2]

Yes the opt-out is great for the player. But I suspect that's in large part how the Reds got him.

[Ron Madden]

Lance McAlister
@LanceMcAlister
·
2h
Yes...Nick has an opt out after '20 and '21. This could be 1-year/$16M.
If he leaves after '20 and rejects QO, #Reds would GET a draft pick.
Braves got Marcel Ozuna for
1-year/$18M and GAVE UP a draft pick

[Griffey012]

I don't really see the opt-out being a big deal here. Castellanos is 27, so barring catastrophic injury, there is no reason to expect a sudden decline to where he isn't still worth $16M a year. He is also 27 and may still have another breakout forthcoming in which $16M a year would be very cheap. The Reds get him for a modest outlay with little risk, if Castellanos goes gang busters the Reds get a great year from him at $16M and a draft pick, win-win if you ask me.

Although it would be cool to have a structure to where if Castellanos opts out, the Reds can retain for an extra $6M a year or something.

[OGB]

I'd say the odds of Payton being somewhat for real are way higher than Siri figuring out how to hit. I believe Payton was a swing changer which coincided with a big boost in performance, ala Aquino. Siri should probably look to go the swing/approach overhaul at this point.

Curious where you heard about the swing change, because I did some googling and couldn't find anything.

[Griffey012]

Curious where you heard about the swing change, because I did some googling and couldn't find anything.

In terms of Payton? I believe it was a fangraphs write up on the rule V draftees. I can’t look it up right now. It wasn’t so much a full scale swing change like Aquino as it was to a smaller change and different approach to get to more power. If I am remembering correctly.

[corkedbat]

Can he opt out one of his two options and then accept the QO and get an automatic couple of million dollar raise?