GM building an all-electric-vehicle plant in Detroit.

[Kingspoint]

Huge boost for that area's survival.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/g...153839461.html

[JaxRed]

GM has said the vehicles will be profitable from Day 1. That means they are producing expensive vehicles. Pickups, Cadillacs, Hummers. I doubt anything comes out selling less than $55k. It's not a bad strategy. It's how Tesla started. Super expensive Roadsters funded the expensive S and X models and they funded the more moderately priced Model 3.

[kaldaniels]

On a side note I keep waiting for the point where electric vehicles really take off in popularity/affordability. It's been about 5 years since you would begin to see Teslas out in the wild and while you see more electric vehicles now its just not enough.

[WrongVerb]

On a side note I keep waiting for the point where electric vehicles really take off in popularity/affordability. It's been about 5 years since you would begin to see Teslas out in the wild and while you see more electric vehicles now its just not enough.

You'll see it happen when their range and refueling times are similar to those of combustion engine cars. Range is inching upwards. But refueling is not. I think all auto makers should get together and decide on one standard bracket design for batteries, then instead of recharging batteries, they should exchange for another that's fully charged and off they go. It would require manned exchange stations but I think that would work better than plugging it in and going to get dinner somewhere.

[JaxRed]

That battery exchange thing is NEVER going to happen. And mostly because it will become unnecessary. Refueling IS getting faster. Chargers and batteries will just keep getting faster. I'm on my second generation Nissan Leaf. Charges at 50kWh. I think that's the same speed for Chevy Bolt.

But newer models are faster. The new Mustang EV is 115kWh. Some like the Audi are like 150.

The latest Tesla are like 225.

The Holy Grail is solid state batteries. Several companies claim to be close. But in the meantime there are plenty of cars to be sold. The automotive market shrunk 4% last year but Tesla increased sales 50%.

[WrongVerb]

That battery exchange thing is NEVER going to happen. And mostly because it will become unnecessary. Refueling IS getting faster. Chargers and batteries will just keep getting faster. I'm on my second generation Nissan Leaf. Charges at 50kWh. I think that's the same speed for Chevy Bolt.

But newer models are faster. The new Mustang EV is 115kWh. Some like the Audi are like 150.

The latest Tesla are like 225.

The Holy Grail is solid state batteries. Several companies claim to be close. But in the meantime there are plenty of cars to be sold. The automotive market shrunk 4% last year but Tesla increased sales 50%.

Let me know when recharge time equals the 5 or so minutes it takes to pump a full tank of gas.

[BernieCarbo]

Let me know when recharge time equals the 5 or so minutes it takes to pump a full tank of gas.

That isn't the point. The stations wouldn't even have to be manned; it would be simple for actuators to load and unload the batteries. The real issue is that no one will want to swap their batteries for some batteries from another car. What if they start driving and the car catches on fire? What of they got 100 miles on the last charge and only 50 on the next charge? It would never fly.

[Redsfaithful]

Let me know when recharge time equals the 5 or so minutes it takes to pump a full tank of gas.

Let me know when you can pump gas in your garage.

[WrongVerb]

Let me know when you can pump gas in your garage.

Let me know when I can take my garage 300 miles down the road.

OK, we're getting a bit snippy and I don't mean to do that. I'm in favor of us getting off fossil fuels as quickly as possible. My next purchase (c.2023) might even be an electric, but will probably be a hybrid. But my point is that for the average person, until you can ensure for them the same level of utility that they have with their combustion automobiles, you're not going to see mass conversion to electric.

[BernieCarbo]

Another issue is that electric cars are still not that environmentally friendly. If you go beyond the pamphlets in the showroom and really dig into the entire engineering behind the making of the batteries, the carbon footprint is huge, not to mention the environmental impact. There are several research papers out there by scientists that calculate the total energy consumption to make the car plus what it will consume while being driven during it's lifetime, and it is still similar in total efficiency to a diesel automobile (the study was commissioned in Europe, hence the comparison to a diesel car).

The biggest issue is coming up with two critical components- lithium and cobalt. Cobalt is mined in only one country in Africa using manual labor under horrible conditions. Much of the lithium comes from Bolivia and most is mined using a process that requires a huge amount of water (Tesla claims otherwise by stating that "to produce the lithium needed for a 64kWh battery, around 3840 liters of water are evaporated according to normal calculation methods" but most lithium is still produced through a massive brine evaporative process; I'm guessing this isn't part of their "normal calculation methods"). This will change in the coming decade, but as far as the here and now, people are better off buying a used car and running it into the ground to minimize their own personal footprint.

[Boston Red]

Not to mention that a lot of electricity is still generated by burning coal. And the next best (and most widely used) alternative is nat gas.

Also, I've got a couple refineries that I need to be profitable for a while, okay!

[Sea Ray]

Let me know when I can take my garage 300 miles down the road.

OK, we're getting a bit snippy and I don't mean to do that. I'm in favor of us getting off fossil fuels as quickly as possible. My next purchase (c.2023) might even be an electric, but will probably be a hybrid. But my point is that for the average person, until you can ensure for them the same level of utility that they have with their combustion automobiles, you're not going to see mass conversion to electric.

I for one agreed with you up to that point. Then you had to throw out the idea of swapping batteries. That's gotta rank up there with your 100% death tax idea.

[JaxRed]

The reality of the matter is that EV's and sales are going to soar. It's inevitable. They are just that much better. Even if the market was limited to people that have 2 cars and a garage (like myself) that market is phenomenally large.

Some huge percentage of the time, (95? 99?) recharge times don't matter because you just plug in at home. (and get WAY cheaper fuel). I've had my second Leaf for about 18 months and 20,000 miles. It's never been charged outside the home.

If I was taking a long trip I wouldn't take that car. And that's really the answer. I wouldn't do a long road trip in an EV unless it was a Tesla. Their charging speeds and charging infrastructure are just WAY ahead of the competition.

When you need to take a long road trip (and don't have a Tesla) you can use a secondary vehicle. Maybe a rental. Or you have a second car that's not an EV. It might be a Plug-In Electric Vehicle. The Toyota Rav4 is going to have a version this summer that will do 40 miles electric and then drop into gas mode. Many people will opt for a solution like this.

A far more limiting factor is apartment dwellers who don't have a place to plug-in.

As far as the electric being generated by fossil fuels, every year the percentages get better and better. For example the percentage of US electricity from coal has gone from 2014 to 2019 as follows; 39%, 35%, 30.4% 30%, 27%. Most of that was accomplished by conversion to natural gas which is better for the environment. So your electric car gets cleaner every year.

And now wind/solar combined with battery backup is cutting into natural gas because it's cheaper. Without subsidies. Which again makes your car cleaner every year.

And once you have an electric you are converted. I will never have another vehicle without a plug. It's simply a question of which vehicle. Maybe a Tesla Model Y, Maybe a VW (they are making a HUGE push into electrics) or maybe something like the plugin Rav4.

Part of the reason is my wife. When I bought my first Leaf in 2011 her reaction was 'Whatever, it's yours. I don't have to drive it". Now the second Leaf is "hers" and when we were shopping she only wanted an electric. She loves never having to stop for gas.

So.. gas cars are going to be around for a long time, but the percentage of electrics on the road is going to go up every year. By a LOT.

[Sea Ray]

Jax you've been a world of information on these electric vehicles. I agree that there is a market for them. My issue is the battery. Am I correct that the warranty is not transferable? Doesn't that kill the resale value of the car? Do you still get tax rebates for buying these cars?

[kaldaniels]

The reality of the matter is that EV's and sales are going to soar. It's inevitable. They are just that much better. Even if the market was limited to people that have 2 cars and a garage (like myself) that market is phenomenally large.

Some huge percentage of the time, (95? 99?) recharge times don't matter because you just plug in at home. (and get WAY cheaper fuel). I've had my second Leaf for about 18 months and 20,000 miles. It's never been charged outside the home.

If I was taking a long trip I wouldn't take that car. And that's really the answer. I wouldn't do a long road trip in an EV unless it was a Tesla. Their charging speeds and charging infrastructure are just WAY ahead of the competition.

When you need to take a long road trip (and don't have a Tesla) you can use a secondary vehicle. Maybe a rental. Or you have a second car that's not an EV. It might be a Plug-In Electric Vehicle. The Toyota Rav4 is going to have a version this summer that will do 40 miles electric and then drop into gas mode. Many people will opt for a solution like this.

A far more limiting factor is apartment dwellers who don't have a place to plug-in.

As far as the electric being generated by fossil fuels, every year the percentages get better and better. For example the percentage of US electricity from coal has gone from 2014 to 2019 as follows; 39%, 35%, 30.4% 30%, 27%. Most of that was accomplished by conversion to natural gas which is better for the environment. So your electric car gets cleaner every year.

And now wind/solar combined with battery backup is cutting into natural gas because it's cheaper. Without subsidies. Which again makes your car cleaner every year.

And once you have an electric you are converted. I will never have another vehicle without a plug. It's simply a question of which vehicle. Maybe a Tesla Model Y, Maybe a VW (they are making a HUGE push into electrics) or maybe something like the plugin Rav4.

Part of the reason is my wife. When I bought my first Leaf in 2011 her reaction was 'Whatever, it's yours. I don't have to drive it". Now the second Leaf is "hers" and when we were shopping she only wanted an electric. She loves never having to stop for gas.

So.. gas cars are going to be around for a long time, but the percentage of electrics on the road is going to go up every year. By a LOT.

So from a macro standpoint what happens on high travel dates? There aren't going to be millions of rental cars just sitting around waiting for Thanksgiving weekend. (Where much to the rental companies chagrin there will be a lot of miles put on the car...so hello expensive rentals). This is a sincere issue/question. Something has to give if you can't hop in your own car and drive to a far destination easily .