2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

[REDREAD]

If Senzel was injured and out for the season, how many games would you shave off the expected win total? The reason I ask, I get he is valuable, but not sure he is a significant impact on this season with the current roster....and if that is the case, then I would consider moving him for a package of high level prospects.

I completely agree with your statement that Senzel is not likely to have an impact (this year or next) because he doesn't have a position to play, unless an injury happens. He probably should be traded for "equal value" for something more useful to the Reds. He's not a plus defender in the OF and will probably never be. He might be a plus defender on the Infield, but he's blocked at 2b and 3b for a long time.
Seems like a waste of resources to put a top prospect in the supersub role. That is not a knock on Senzel, but he seems to be the definition of "Sell high".. His value is not going to increase as a supersub, it's only likely to go down. CF was a bad fit (especially with our poor defense in the OF corners), and still is. I understand why they did it last year. But this year's "plan" for Senzel is a bad one, unless I am missing something or another trade opens up playing time for him (or perhaps he becomes the full time LF and Winker/Ervin is pushed to the bench)
Even if the Reds plan on using Senzel as the starting LF, that is not maximizing his value.

[MikeS21]

I completely agree with your statement that Senzel is not likely to have an impact (this year or next) because he doesn't have a position to play, unless an injury happens. He probably should be traded for "equal value" for something more useful to the Reds. He's not a plus defender in the OF and will probably never be. He might be a plus defender on the Infield, but he's blocked at 2b and 3b for a long time.
Seems like a waste of resources to put a top prospect in the supersub role. That is not a knock on Senzel, but he seems to be the definition of "Sell high".. His value is not going to increase as a supersub, it's only likely to go down. CF was a bad fit (especially with our poor defense in the OF corners), and still is. I understand why they did it last year. But this year's "plan" for Senzel is a bad one, unless I am missing something or another trade opens up playing time for him (or perhaps he becomes the full time LF and Winker/Ervin is pushed to the bench)
Even if the Reds plan on using Senzel as the starting LF, that is not maximizing his value.

I disagree that Senzel will probably never be a plus defender in the OF. The guy has not not played CF for one calendar year yet, and folks are already dismissing him. As far as we know, Senzel had never chased a fly ball in his life until last spring training. What I saw was a guy learning one of the most difficult positions last year. Of course there were mistakes. But there was vast improvement, too. He certainly never embarrassed himself. And there is absolutely no reason to assume that Senzel won't continue to improve in CF. I think with time and patience, Nick Senzel will develop into a very good ... better-than-average good CF.

Folks need to set aside the notion that Shogo is going to come in here and be the every day CF. Most scouts around baseball agree that his best days in CF are probably behind him. He will most likely play the other corner OF spot opposite Castellanos. Akiyama will slide over to fill in at CF once a week, but unless there is a long term injury to Senzel, Senzel is still the best CF on the team, and will probably improve his defense. Leave him there and let him get better. Don't just dismiss him after a few months of learning the position.

[Kc61]

I completely agree with your statement that Senzel is not likely to have an impact (this year or next) because he doesn't have a position to play, unless an injury happens. He probably should be traded for "equal value" for something more useful to the Reds. He's not a plus defender in the OF and will probably never be. He might be a plus defender on the Infield, but he's blocked at 2b and 3b for a long time.
Seems like a waste of resources to put a top prospect in the supersub role. That is not a knock on Senzel, but he seems to be the definition of "Sell high".. His value is not going to increase as a supersub, it's only likely to go down. CF was a bad fit (especially with our poor defense in the OF corners), and still is. I understand why they did it last year. But this year's "plan" for Senzel is a bad one, unless I am missing something or another trade opens up playing time for him (or perhaps he becomes the full time LF and Winker/Ervin is pushed to the bench)
Even if the Reds plan on using Senzel as the starting LF, that is not maximizing his value.

Senzel is definitely not the “definition of ‘Sell High.’” He’s coming off vertigo and labrum surgery. He only spent one year in CF and isn’t yet established at that (or any) position. With all the injuries his first season didn’t show his true talent. He’s actually “sell low.”

If Senzel were “sell high”- at peak value - Lindor would be a Red right now.

Senzel will get plenty of time in the OF this year. Only Castellanos is more of a priority out there. By the end of ST the OF picture will be clearer and Nick will be right in the thick of it. Unless he needs more recovery time, then it will be delayed slightly.

Trading Senzel make no sense unless he’s in a deal for a star. They considered that, it didn’t happen, time to move ahead with Nick for 2020.

[Rojo Rijo]

I just don't see how they can make this work with the current status of the roster

Castellanos is an everyday corner OF
Shogo is a major international signing, brought in to play CF
Senzel is an elite prospect heading into his second big season, playing CF
Winker is a 25/26 y/o former top organizational prospect who's held his own
Aquino just had a monster showing late last season

Everyone of these guys have earned the chance to play 140+ games. I could see them trying to make a 4 man rotation work but 5 doesn't seem feasible.

There is still plenty of time before the regular season. I wouldn't be shocked to see one more move to balance the roster out.

[Rojo Rijo]

I feel like a trade with the Yankees could be there (I know...I know...).

New York gets - Nick Senzel, Anthony DeSclafani, Jose Garcia
Cincinnati gets - Gleyber Torres, Alexander Vizcaino

New York needs some pitching help with Paxton on the DL and German suspended. Senzel could replace a 36 year old Brett Gardner, and they could move Gio to SS and create a spot at 3rd for Andujar.

For the Reds Torres would become the starting SS, sending Galvis into a super sub role. Shogo would be the primary CF and Janikowski would make the team primarily as the backup CF. Vizcaino would add another arm to groom along the lines of the next rotation (Greene, Lodolo). Losing Disco hurts, Mahle would become the #5 but could be challenged by Lodolo before the season is over.

I know this is highly unlikely and why would NY give up a budding star for a few very nice pieces but I feel this deal actually balances out. Not to mention giving them the best SS in the Reds org. as a future SS replacement in a few years.

[Kc61]

I just don't see how they can make this work with the current status of the roster

Castellanos is an everyday corner OF
Shogo is a major international signing, brought in to play CF
Senzel is an elite prospect heading into his second big season, playing CF
Winker is a 25/26 y/o former top organizational prospect who's held his own
Aquino just had a monster showing late last season

Everyone of these guys have earned the chance to play 140+ games. I could see them trying to make a 4 man rotation work but 5 doesn't seem feasible.

There is still plenty of time before the regular season. I wouldn't be shocked to see one more move to balance the roster out.

It’s worse when you consider Ervin (good against LHP) and Jankowski (late inning defense particularly in CF). Let alone the Rule 5 guy who would seem to have an absolute zero shot with this logjam.

It’s unknown whether Reds will try to juggle them all; will make a couple of smaller deals (say, an Ervin trade, maybe a Winker trade (less likely)); will send Aquino to AAA; hard to know. Or maybe they expect Senzel to be out recovering from surgery and the logjam isn’t as severe.

My beef is more with the other holes on the team. Why have outfielders sitting on the bench or forced to AAA when you lack a top flight IF/shortstop reserve or another good veteran LH reliever? Seems to me they could balance things better. But the Reds know all this, lot of time remaining before OD.

[RustyJ]

Everyone of these guys have earned the chance to play 140+ games. I could see them trying to make a 4 man rotation work but 5 doesn't seem feasible.

I know the grizzled wisdom is that these things have a way of working themselves out, but it’s real hard to picture how this comes together. Really wanted to see a trade come together after the Castellanos deal.

[adkindo]

Trammell? Lol come on

Are you serious? He would immediately be the #1 Ranked prospect in the Reds minor leagues. He is a Top 30 prospect in baseball that will likely be ready to take over the CF spot by 2021. Appears everyone agrees with you, but I am not sure I understand the sentiment besides he was once traded away from the Reds when he was a high level prospect.

[corkedbat]

After last season? Not saying he's a bust, but he's got some proving to do. Doubting he's top 30 for long. Would not rate him above Lodolo or Greene. Maybe the top position player. If Senzel improves in CF this year, Nick's arm might put him ahead of Trammell's noodle as far as CF goes.

[Rojo Rijo]

Are you serious? He would immediately be the #1 Ranked prospect in the Reds minor leagues. He is a Top 30 prospect in baseball that will likely be ready to take over the CF spot by 2021. Appears everyone agrees with you, but I am not sure I understand the sentiment besides he was once traded away from the Reds when he was a high level prospect.

He needs to show more of what he was doing the last few weeks of the season if he wants to keep his status as a top prospect. He's still young but he scuffed last year in AA and that's typically the level that separates the wills from the wonts.

I see him over Greene if he were still in the Reds org. but I think I'd put Lodolo above him.

[RedTeamGo!]

Are you serious? He would immediately be the #1 Ranked prospect in the Reds minor leagues. He is a Top 30 prospect in baseball that will likely be ready to take over the CF spot by 2021. Appears everyone agrees with you, but I am not sure I understand the sentiment besides he was once traded away from the Reds when he was a high level prospect.

He’s not a top 30 prospect anymore because of how horrible his 2019 was. Fangraphs has him at #69.

Frankly, the only reason he’s hanging on to his top 100 ranking is because the prospect “experts” aren’t willing to admit they were wrong about him yet.

I was mostly laughing at the idea of trading Senzel for him because the reds, uh, just traded him like 7 months ago...

[adkindo]

He’s not a top 30 prospect anymore because of how horrible his 2019 was. Fangraphs has him at #69.

Frankly, the only reason he’s hanging on to his top 100 ranking is because the prospect “experts” aren’t willing to admit they were wrong about him yet.

I was mostly laughing at the idea of trading Senzel for him because the reds, uh, just traded him like 7 months ago...

replace him with someone else....I was just looking at acquiring solid prospects that could be important if someone like Lindor was being targeted at the deadline.

[Wonderful Monds]

Are you serious? He would immediately be the #1 Ranked prospect in the Reds minor leagues. He is a Top 30 prospect in baseball that will likely be ready to take over the CF spot by 2021. Appears everyone agrees with you, but I am not sure I understand the sentiment besides he was once traded away from the Reds when he was a high level prospect.

He’s not that well regarded anymore, I think he’s around 70 in this year’s lists on average.

I also don’t really see the point in trading Senzel for someone who probably doesn’t play centerfield much better than he does that will likely also hit much worse than he does too.

[RedTeamGo!]

He’s not that well regarded anymore, I think he’s around 70 in this year’s lists on average.

I also don’t really see the point in trading Senzel for someone who probably doesn’t play centerfield much better than he does that will likely also hit much worse than he does too.

Speaking of TT’s ranking. I believe you lost a bet to me.

I think the result is I choose your avatar for this year.

Do you accept this punishment?

[MoneyInTheBank]

Fangraphs has him at #69

Nice