2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

[mth123]

Unless they are going to be starters, I would be content if Senzel and Aquino start the year in AAA to get full time reps. The Reds need the strongest bench they can have this year if they are going to make a run at things. That is often achieved with veterans instead of young guys. Think Julio Lugo instead of Wily Mo.

Furthermore I worry about moving Senzel all over the field as his shoulder recovers as throwing angles vary and focus needs to be on his health and his refinding his swing.

That being said, ST has a way of sorting all of this stuff out.

But Senzel doesn't have to move all over the field. He can play CF and some second base (one of the easier spots for his shoulder). Moose can be the guy who moves when Suarez and Votto sit and Shogo will be the guy moving around the OF. I'm all for 7 guys for 6 spots with the 3 OF spots and 1B, 2B and 3B covered using Senzel and the OF depth.

- Joey Votto needs more rest. His problems last year were largely due to his back. All those funky swings were his attempt to compensate for an achy back. Rest him at least once per week.
- Moose, Suarez and Castellanos will each take off 10 to 20 games (more for Moose than the others).
- Shogo is coming from Japan where a full season is 143 games, he's adjusting to the US and is 32 now. He should probably sit 30 times per year or so.
- Winker and Senzel have been injury prone. Resting them regularly should be in the plan.

The Reds finally have good players. Use them.

[RedTeamGo!]

Aquino put up a higher WAR in 2 months than Jesse Winker has in 3 seasons combined. It’s comical how overrated Winker is by so many on this board.

bWAR*

And really, it was basically the amount of at bats as 1 1/2 seasons, 740. And it’s heavily effected by questionable defensive metrics. Winker also had a .379 OBP and .845 OPS in those “3 seasons.” Aquino had a .316 OBP in his two months at major league level and career .308 OBP at minor league level in 9! Seasons, including a season at AA two years ago that was so bad the reds cut him off the 40 man and literally no team in baseball even took a flier on him. But hey, who cares about context? That magical August in 2019 where Aquino hit every fastball served to him out of the park is totally sustainable and major league teams and pitchers will absolutely continue grooving fastballs to him instead of giving him a healthy dose of breaking pitchers he clearly can’t hit. September and the previous decade of minor league ball is nothing compared to the 4 week sample of August 2019.

I am absolutely not penciling in Winker OR Aquino as starters. You can play fun with small sample sizes as much as you want with those two. Frankly, I would have traded Winker to an AL team years ago. He should be spending a lot of his time as a DH.

[REDREAD]

It's actually a poor analogy.

Austin Kearns trade value was trending up quite nicely until Burger King decided to sit on him.

He was never the same after that.

Injuries, not control, robbed him of his value.

Disagree. Kearns was never the perennial all star that people expected to be.
Once the prospect shine wore off, his value declined.
Now I agree, the King injury made it decline even more. but Kearns was worth more as a prospect.

[REDREAD]

Senzel’s under Reds control until the 2026 season. There’s no rush to trade him based on shrinking service time. It won’t be a major factor for a few years to come.

Nick’s had one MLB season, marred by injury, and in which he was learning a new position. His offensive stats suffered, his defense at a new position was uncertain.

Strikes me as a bad time to trade him. Given his talent level, would seem the odds favor improvement on the field going forward and, consequently, increased trade value.

I'm not saying the Reds must trade him or he's worthless.
As I understand it, the Reds have him for 6 more years.
Let's assume for the sake of example, the Reds start him in LF or CF full time next year, as that's a best case scenerio for him
If he does not break out in 2020 (let's say he's an average OF at best), don't you think his value goes down compared to what it is now?
That's just my point.. As years of control shrink, potential is less valuable.
That's not to say Nick would be worthless in 2021, but worth less than now.
Even if he stays healthy all 2020, unless he breaks out, the value goes down in 2021.

[RustyJ]

Aquino had a .316 OBP in his two months at major league level and career .308 OBP at minor league level in 9! Seasons, including a season at AA two years ago that was so bad the reds cut him off the 40 man and literally no team in baseball even took a flier on him. But hey, who cares about context?

But he’s decisively not a AA washout now... he hit 47 homers last year. It’s ridiculous to pretend that’s a useful data point.

[RedTeamGo!]

But he’s decisively not a AA washout now... he hit 47 homers last year. It’s ridiculous to pretend that’s a useful data point.

Also ignoring AAA’s power surge last year for all players. The ball was juiced. Again, I’m not saying Aquino is definitely bad, I am simply saying the reds should pump the brakes on him and not hand him the keys to RF before ST even begins.

[JaxRed]

Also ignoring AAA’s power surge last year for all players. The ball was juiced. Again, I’m not saying Aquino is definitely bad, I am simply saying the reds should pump the brakes on him and not hand him the keys to RF before ST even begins.

AAA was using the major league ball.

[MoneyInTheBank]

I'm not saying the Reds must trade him or he's worthless.
As I understand it, the Reds have him for 6 more years.
Let's assume for the sake of example, the Reds start him in LF or CF full time next year, as that's a best case scenerio for him
If he does not break out in 2020 (let's say he's an average OF at best), don't you think his value goes down compared to what it is now?
That's just my point.. As years of control shrink, potential is less valuable.
That's not to say Nick would be worthless in 2021, but worth less than now.
Even if he stays healthy all 2020, unless he breaks out, the value goes down in 2021.

Plug any player into this hypothetical situation and it applies "if x player is not good, his value shrinks"

It's all about how you feel about Senzel

[MoneyInTheBank]

But he’s decisively not a AA washout now... he hit 47 homers last year. It’s ridiculous to pretend that’s a useful data point.

I think the point is, so far, the outlier is 2019

Will he be able to replicate 2019? It's possible and I hope he does. Just know you are relying on an outlier to make that projection

[Todd Gack]

Where can I read or listen to a podcast of daily updates from Reds camp each day? Aside from reading this board, anywhere else that would be good for info?

[CesarGeronimo]

I think the point is, so far, the outlier is 2019

Will he be able to replicate 2019? It's possible and I hope he does. Just know you are relying on an outlier to make that projection

His improvement last year was credited to a new open stance. Can't wait to see whether that success carries into this year. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...lb/1915757001/

[RedTeamGo!]

His improvement last year was credited to a new open stance. Can't wait to see whether that success carries into this year. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...lb/1915757001/

Did he abandon the new stance in September?

[RustyJ]

I think the point is, so far, the outlier is 2019

Will he be able to replicate 2019? It's possible and I hope he does. Just know you are relying on an outlier to make that projection

I guess this is the philosophical argument. I don’t want him penciled in to start 150, but calling an entire season an outlier seems misguided to me. That’s how the minor leagues work; guys with big tools hopefully unlock skills along the way and whatever failures they had prior to that become somewhat irrelevant. Seems pretty clear to me that’s where Aquino is at. Whether he’s an MLB all star remains to be seen, but him getting dropped off the roster in 2017 or whatever it was isn’t really informative at this point.

[Ron Madden]

Bell and Iglesias have yet to discuss if the club would try using him again in less-traditional ways for a closer.

“The bottom line, just like we were sitting here last year, he is one of our best pitchers,” Bell said. “He is going to pitch in the most important parts of the game. I’m just going to be more aware of how important that routine is and what he’s done for a long time.”

The Reds' bullpen is deeper heading into this season with the addition of Pedro Strop and the possibility of other veterans like Nate Jones or Tyler Thornburg, if they can make the club.

Iglesias, 30, proclaimed that he was open to any way Bell wants to use him.

“I will try to be as comfortable as I can to pitch any inning, whatever inning that is,” Iglesias said. “I think I will pitch my inning, whatever is told to me. I think with the addition of Strop and the other relievers we have, I don’t have to be stressed out about having to pitch two innings or even more. We should be fine.”

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/raisel...vement-in-2020

[GAC]

Disagree. Kearns was never the perennial all star that people expected to be.
Once the prospect shine wore off, his value declined.
Now I agree, the King injury made it decline even more. but Kearns was worth more as a prospect.

Lazy was my perception of him.

[but I do have a HR ball hit by Kearns] lol