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Thread: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

  1. #226
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Shogo is a major international signing, brought in to play CF
    Shogo was brought in to play all 3 OF positions
    The Reds were searching for high on-base percentage hitters. They wanted a left-handed hitting outfielder who was athletic, a solid baserunner and could play center field.

    “His ability to play all three outfield positions was really important,” Reds manager David Bell said. “I don’t think it would have made as much sense if he played just one outfield position. That’s pretty rare if a guy can play center field the way he does with his athleticism.

    “That was a big part of why this made sense and why he’ll be able to get a lot of playing time.”
    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...im/2850091001/


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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    The OF will be mainly a four-man rotation, where Castellanos, Senzel, and Shogo are spelled often by Winker. Shogo will not be the primary CF. But he will move over to CF if Senzel gets a day off, late inning double switch, or worst case if Senzel gets injured.

    If you need 675 Plate Appearances for three OF positions, that's 2025 PA's. If the main three (Castellanos, Senzel, and Shogo) get around 500 PA's each, that leaves around 525 PA's to be shared between Winker and a 5th OF (Not counting pinch hitting PA's).

    The 5th guy will be one of Ervin, Aquino, Schebler, Jankowski, or Payton. My guess is the 5th guy will be Ervin since he has experience at all three OF positions and is out of options. Aquino will be in AAA (he has options) unless he has a monster spring in real games (not batting practice moon shots). Everyone else is on the outside looking in. Probably trade fodder (Payton will most likely be offered back since he is a Rule 5 guy). Any non-roster invitees better consider AAA or start looking at other clubs.

    If by some strange cosmic event where Winker gets moved, Schebler may have the inside track over Aquino, since Schebs has no options left. Aquino needs to go to AAA and prove for a couple months that his horrible September was the exception and his great August was the new norm. At any rate, I think we will see Schebler get a lot of playing time in spring training, if for no other reason to showcase his health for a possible trade.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  4. #228
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    The OF will be mainly a four-man rotation, where Castellanos, Senzel, and Shogo are spelled often by Winker. Shogo will not be the primary CF. But he will move over to CF if Senzel gets a day off, late inning double switch, or worst case if Senzel gets injured.

    If you need 675 Plate Appearances for three OF positions, that's 2025 PA's. If the main three (Castellanos, Senzel, and Shogo) get around 500 PA's each, that leaves around 525 PA's to be shared between Winker and a 5th OF (Not counting pinch hitting PA's).

    The 5th guy will be one of Ervin, Aquino, Schebler, Jankowski, or Payton. My guess is the 5th guy will be Ervin since he has experience at all three OF positions and is out of options. Aquino will be in AAA (he has options) unless he has a monster spring in real games (not batting practice moon shots). Everyone else is on the outside looking in. Probably trade fodder (Payton will most likely be offered back since he is a Rule 5 guy). Any non-roster invitees better consider AAA or start looking at other clubs.

    If by some strange cosmic event where Winker gets moved, Schebler may have the inside track over Aquino, since Schebs has no options left. Aquino needs to go to AAA and prove for a couple months that his horrible September was the exception and his great August was the new norm. At any rate, I think we will see Schebler get a lot of playing time in spring training, if for no other reason to showcase his health for a possible trade.
    I get the lefty/righty stuff, but in what world would Schebler make the team over Aquino? Go to AAA to prove his horrible September was the exception? He was the ML Player of the Month in August. What did Schebler do last year?

    I don't care if Aquino is the 4th OF and Ervin is the 5th OF and they're both right handed, or if that means Jankowski or Payton make it over Ervin - Aquino is making the team 100/100 times over Schebler.

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  6. #229
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I disagree that Senzel will probably never be a plus defender in the OF. The guy has not not played CF for one calendar year yet, and folks are already dismissing him.
    I did not mean to be dismissive. But Senzel just does not have the tools to be a great defender in CF. Did he have surgery on his throwing arm this offseason.. I think he did, but I can not remember for sure.. if he did, that will potentially impact his throwing arm. I think Shogo was brought in to be the starting CF, that's probably part of the reason he chose the Reds .. so he could get an opportunity to start as opposed to being a 4th OF on a big market team.

    If the Reds would rather trade Winker and put Senzel in LF, I would be fine with that too.
    As the roster currently stands, having Senzel and Winker on the same roster does not make sense (assuming both are healthy.

    from KC61:
    Senzel is definitely not the “definition of ‘Sell High.’” He’s coming off vertigo and labrum surgery. He only spent one year in CF and isn’t yet established at that (or any) position. With all the injuries his first season didn’t show his true talent. He’s actually “sell low.”
    I see what you are saying, but with every year of service time that Senzel gets, his value automatically gets lower. That is true for every player.. Years of control is a big one.
    Sure, if Senzel has an MVP level this year, his value would go up a lot. I don't dispute that.

    A good analogy here is Austin Kearns.. very hyped but when the Reds decided to trade him, a lot of his trade value was gone. Now, that's not horrible, we got some production out of him, he was a useful player.. I am not saying it was a dumb move, but there's a case study.. Jay Bruce's value shrunk with years of control and age as well.. So it's nothing personal against Senzel (In fact, it holds true for Winker too). It happens to about 90% of players..
    I do not have proof, nor do I want to do the math, so if someone wants to challenge this statement, that is fine. It seems the vast majority of highly ranked prospects have peak value before they reach the majors or in year 1 or 2. The only exception is the superstars.. So if the argument is that Senzel is a future superstar, I can understand that and I would change my stance to "Trade Winker so Senzel can play LF full time".
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  7. #230
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    After last season? Not saying he's a bust, but he's got some proving to do. Doubting he's top 30 for long. Would not rate him above Lodolo or Greene. Maybe the top position player. If Senzel improves in CF this year, Nick's arm might put him ahead of Trammell's noodle as far as CF goes.
    Trammel would definitely be ranked higher than Greene. Did Greene even pitch last year? IMO, Green has a lot more to prove than Trammel, who came off a rough year in AA. Maybe Lodolo would be ranked higher than Trammel, I don't really know.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    A good analogy here is Austin Kearns.. very hyped but when the Reds decided to trade him, a lot of his trade value was gone.
    It's actually a poor analogy.

    Austin Kearns trade value was trending up quite nicely until Burger King decided to sit on him.

    He was never the same after that.

    Injuries, not control, robbed him of his value.

  9. #232
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Shogo was brought in to play all 3 OF positions


    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...im/2850091001/
    Play all 3 OF positions seems like asking too much. will the other 8 guys will be in the infiled? I only thought Billy Hamilton could cover 2 OF positions- Shogo must be really fast or these shifts have really gotten out of control.

  10. #233
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Play all 3 OF positions seems like asking too much. will the other 8 guys will be in the infiled? I only thought Billy Hamilton could cover 2 OF positions- Shogo must be really fast or these shifts have really gotten out of control.
    Whoever told you that you're funny needs his butt whooped.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Musketeer22 View Post
    I get the lefty/righty stuff, but in what world would Schebler make the team over Aquino? Go to AAA to prove his horrible September was the exception? He was the ML Player of the Month in August. What did Schebler do last year?

    I don't care if Aquino is the 4th OF and Ervin is the 5th OF and they're both right handed, or if that means Jankowski or Payton make it over Ervin - Aquino is making the team 100/100 times over Schebler.
    It’s simple. Aquino has options. Schebler doesn’t. Schebler has major league experience at all three OF positions. Aquino doesn’t. Granted, I think Schebler has an uphill climb in order to make the team. But if he puts together a decent spring training, he could very well sneak onto the 26 man roster. Most likely, however, I think that he will be showcased for a trade.

    Color me unimpressed with Aquino’s one hot month. He hit ton of HR’s in AAA where the baseballs were juiced. He comes up and has a career four week stretch. Once the pitchers caught on to his game, he came back down to earth. I know that Aquino supposedly reworked his swing and he went from a defensive replacement to superstar virtually overnight. If that is truly the case, the Reds should find that hitting coach and have him rework every minor league hitter’s swing. It was a great month to watch. But I think Aquino’s September is more the expectation that I have for him.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  13. #235
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Senzel says his focus at the plate during spring training will be his timing. He felt like he wasn’t consistent last year.

    He will play only center field during spring training until his shoulder is fully healed. He could be an option for second base during the regular season, but the Reds want him to focus on one position during his throwing program.

    Senzel understood why he was involved in more trade talks as the Reds pursued shortstop Francisco Lindor and other top targets. He was one of the top prospects in the sport entering the 2019 season. Many teams remain optimistic about his potential.

    Recovering from surgery to repair the labrum in his right shoulder, Senzel says he’s glad he remains in Reds camp. He will start spring training on a throwing program, which will likely force him to DH in the first week of exhibition games. He remains on track to play by Opening Day.
    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...as/4785723002/

  14. #236
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Putting Aquino in AAA “because he has options” is ridiculous logic. He’s earned his shot


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Putting Aquino in AAA “because he has options” is ridiculous logic. He’s earned his shot


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Reds have 6 outfielders who have earned their shot. Something has to give.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Whoever told you that you're funny needs his butt whooped.
    I will concede it was not my best effort.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Putting Aquino in AAA “because he has options” is ridiculous logic. He’s earned his shot


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    No, he hasn’t. People really need to look at his September from 19 and remember how bad he was 2 years ago.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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  22. #240
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Putting Aquino in AAA “because he has options” is ridiculous logic. He’s earned his shot


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Because he got hot for 6 weeks?


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