2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

[kaldaniels]

Just to be clear TJ making the roster would not so sink the season but it would be damning so far as the FO mindset is.

I’ve got an easy 6 OF over TJ. Senzel, AA, Cast, Winker, Shogo, Ervin.

None of those guys should be cut/demoted over a defensive/PR sub.

[Kc61]

Who knows what will happen but man you’ve been banging that Jankowski drum.

If he makes the roster we are doomed. Mark it down.

That said there is some twitter debate it seems whether he has an option or not left. I believe Trent says he does.

Yes, I think a defensive fifth OFer would be wise. The Reds lack dynamic OF defense. The fifth OF spot would be a perfect place for it.

Had the Reds traded some current OFers for a shortstop or relief pitching or a catcher, there might have been room. Some of us expected such a trade this off-season to re-balance the roster to some extent.

Don’t recall anyone suggesting Reds demote or cut a good player to make room for Jankowski.

[adkindo]

I know Aquino had a bad September, but his strikeouts only increased a minor amount and his BAbip dropped off over 70 points which I would assume there was some bad luck in there. He still hit more HR's by nearly a 2 to 1 margin in September than everyone outside of Geno who had a big month. Even if he was as inefficient as he was in September for a season, he would still have nearly 35 HR's.

[InsaneinthBrame]

I know Aquino had a bad September, but his strikeouts only increased a minor amount and his BAbip dropped off over 70 points which I would assume there was some bad luck in there. He still hit more HR's by nearly a 2 to 1 margin in September than everyone outside of Geno who had a big month. Even if he was as inefficient as he was in September for a season, he would still have nearly 35 HR's.

If you dig into his numbers he was bad Sept 4 to Sept 18 ops in 400's but he adjusted from the 20th to the end of the year and put up an .898 ops with a 10% walk rate. So people that say that the league figured him out kind of missed the end of the year when Aquino adjusted. I would like the Reds to give him a chance to see if he can continue to adjust. If he can keep his k rate the same as Suarez had last year 28% with his power he could put up as many HRs as Suarez. It is an if I admit but I want to go for the upside.

[GAC]

Aquino played a half season at AAA last year. His line was .299/.356/.636/.992.

What more does he need to prove at AAA? What will be the benefit of having him face more AAA pitching?

How many times must he prove himself at AAA? All because he slumped after one of the great starts in MLB?

Aquino will be 26 in April. He has nothing else to show at AAA. He should not be shipped back to the minors for the convenience of eliminating a logjam.

I never advocated that he be sent down to eliminate a logjam though. Or that if a move has to be made it is him. I did support the idea floated of sending him down to get more A/Bs in the minors .... but upon further reflection I've changed that position.

I understand where you're coming from Kc, and I'm not in absolute disagreement with you. I stated I'd preferred him over Ervin. Ervin has no minor league options left, Aquino does. IMO, Ervin is the one on the "hot seat" because if Aquino has a good ST, then Ervin is released IMO. But I wouldn't put it past the Reds to send Aqunio down to start the season, give him more consistent A/Bs in the early month, see how does, then call him up and release Ervin. Wouldn't put it past them (lol).

What I am saying is his performance last August, which was simply phenomenal, unreal, is far closer to what an anomaly is ... something that deviates from the norm, is abnormal ... vs consistent expectations. It's fine to be high on Aqunio. Just don't fly too close to the Sun on this guy as far as expectations go. As Red's fans we all should know because for years we've watched young players move up, tear up, the minors, everyone's peeing their pants to call them up ....and they fall way short. Not saying he's one. Just exercise some caution.

Aquino did his homework, made adjustments, and lit fire. Were pitchers doing their homework on him, making adjustments, the reason he slumped? Even Aquino acknowledged that pitchers were adjusting to him. Now it's back to Aquino.

But he's a good OFer with a plus arm, and has power. But as far as what that potential is going to translate into on a more consistent basis there are still ???. But unless somethings changes, he'd be my 5th OFer to start the season. And go from there.

[redsmetz]

Last night, Jamie Ramsey sent out this tweet:

Time span between the debut of the #Reds baseball team and the debut of the team’s first Japanese player: 151 years.

Time span between the debut of the #Reds first Japanese player and its second Japanese player: about 27 hours.

Folks asked what he meant, but no reply. Have folks heard something about this?

[MoneyInTheBank]

My idea was a four man outfield rotation and a defensive fifth OF. Probably the guy from SD, Jankowski. I thought (and still do) that Jankowski defensively in the ninth inning of winning games would improve the Reds. He might save a number of close games late with speed and defense.

I have no insight into what trade talks they’ve had, but I hate to see good MLB outfielders at AAA or sitting on the bench too much. The answer is constructing the roster most efficiently. I don’ think they are there yet, but will reserve judgement until OD.

That plan is fine, even though it's not my preferred plan. I don't like MLB OFers sitting at AAA if there is an inferior product at the MLB level. But I call it a good problem to have if you have enough talent to have one parked at AAA, if necessary. Yes, it would be better to send one out in a trade but the value has to be there. And, like you said, who knows what the trade talks have been

[MoneyInTheBank]

If you dig into his numbers he was bad Sept 4 to Sept 18 ops in 400's but he adjusted from the 20th to the end of the year and put up an .898 ops with a 10% walk rate. So people that say that the league figured him out kind of missed the end of the year when Aquino adjusted. I would like the Reds to give him a chance to see if he can continue to adjust. If he can keep his k rate the same as Suarez had last year 28% with his power he could put up as many HRs as Suarez. It is an if I admit but I want to go for the upside.

No doubt that's what the stats are but I think it's cherry picking a little bit. If you go from Sept 21 to the end of the season he had a .629 OPS

I want to make it clear, I'm not an Aquino hater. The sky is the limit for that guy and he's shown it. The floor is scary and he's shown that too

[MoneyInTheBank]

I know Aquino had a bad September, but his strikeouts only increased a minor amount and his BAbip dropped off over 70 points which I would assume there was some bad luck in there. He still hit more HR's by nearly a 2 to 1 margin in September than everyone outside of Geno who had a big month. Even if he was as inefficient as he was in September for a season, he would still have nearly 35 HR's.

I have to disagree on the K%. It went from 22.6 to 30.9, which is an increase of nearly 37%. I, personally, consider that a substantial increase.

The BABIP could be bad luck but probably too early to tell as there isn't enough of a sample for it to be predictive. But he did have more medium and hard contact and less soft contact during September so that could point to some bad luck

[Plus Plus]

Last night, Jamie Ramsey sent out this tweet:

Time span between the debut of the #Reds baseball team and the debut of the team’s first Japanese player: 151 years.

Time span between the debut of the #Reds first Japanese player and its second Japanese player: about 27 hours.

Folks asked what he meant, but no reply. Have folks heard something about this?

Shogo Akiyama was the first Japanese player to play in a game for the Reds when he did so in Sunday's spring training game.

The 8th inning yesterday for the Reds was pitched by Junichi Tazawa, a minor league signing from last year. Tazawa was born in Yokohama, and has been in MLB since 2009 - he was, therefore, the second Japanese-born player to wear a Reds uniform. If he had pitched Sunday and Shogo played on Monday, it would be quite the trivia conundrum.

[JaxRed]

Except none of these games count. I assume Tazawa starts the season in AAA.

[MikeS21]

I'm not sure what else to say. Aquino right now is competing for the 5th OF spot. His two closest rivals are Ervin and Schebler. While Aquino may be the most exciting potential of the three, he has played a total of combined 69 innings at CF and LF over his entire minor league career (6200+ inning in RF). Both Ervin and Schebler have played more balanced innings at all three positions. Ervin is a solid 5th guy and probably has a slight edge. But the team may decide they want the 5th OF to be a LH bat, in which case that opens a lane for Schebler, who also can play all three OF positions.

I think Ervin will be the 5th OF. I also believe Schebler will get a lot of playing time n spring training so that when he doesn't make the team, and because he is out of options, they will want to give him a chance to polish up for a possible trade.

[Plus Plus]

Except none of these games count. I assume Tazawa starts the season in AAA.

Totally agree, just answering the question posed by Ramsey's tweet.

[Griffey012]

Yes, I think a defensive fifth OFer would be wise. The Reds lack dynamic OF defense. The fifth OF spot would be a perfect place for it.

Had the Reds traded some current OFers for a shortstop or relief pitching or a catcher, there might have been room. Some of us expected such a trade this off-season to re-balance the roster to some extent.

Don’t recall anyone suggesting Reds demote or cut a good player to make room for Jankowski.

Isn't Lorenzen pretty good defensively in the OF?

[JFLegal]

i'm fairly confident both aquino and ervin will make the opening day roster. why? because i think senzel will begin the season on the injured list.

castellanos, shogo, winker, ervin, aquino. there are the 5 outfielders until senzel is ready. at that time, perhaps someone else will be hurt, or not producing. or if everyone is producting and senzel comes back healthy, that's a "problem" we want to have.

but in the meantime, i'm forecasting both ervin and aquino on the opening day roster.