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Thread: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

  1. #46
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Will Big Sal get picked up off waivers?
    I expect he will get picked up.


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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Two

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    No, but I'd trade Aquino and throw in Santillan if need be.
    Winker, Aquino & Santillan? I'd want a better SS return than Taylor for that package (even if I had to add another piece.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    I did a double-take when Siri got DFA'd and I did a double-take when Romano got DFA'd.

    But the greater thing is, rather than dropping absolute dross off the roster, as this organization has done for the last 30 years, the talent level has risen on the 40 man roster to the point that anyone being dropped is a player with actual talent. Used to be, the Reds would drop a guy off the 40-man roster to make room for someone else, and within a week, we'd forget who they dropped. But the players getting dropped now are players who actually showed a bit of promise, and not as easily forgotten. That's really a good thing.
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I did a double-take when Siri got DFA'd and I did a double-take when Romano got DFA'd.

    But the greater thing is, rather than dropping absolute dross off the roster, as this organization has done for the last 30 years, the talent level has risen on the 40 man roster to the point that anyone being dropped is a player with actual talent. Used to be, the Reds would drop a guy off the 40-man roster to make room for someone else, and within a week, we'd forget who they dropped. But the players getting dropped now are players who actually showed a bit of promise, and not as easily forgotten. That's really a good thing.
    Agree with your point. I do think the roster has improved generally, but the Reds still have the following guys on their active roster: Justin Shafer, Ryan Hendrix, Josh Smith, Scott Schebler, Mark Payton (Rule V) and Travis Janikowski. Not exactly a cavalcade of stars there. Still some dreck at the bottom.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Agree with your point. I do think the roster has improved generally, but the Reds still have the following guys on their active roster: Justin Shafer, Ryan Hendrix, Josh Smith, Scott Schebler, Mark Payton (Rule V) and Travis Janikowski. Not exactly a cavalcade of stars there. Still some dreck at the bottom.
    Despite some imbalance (see the rather thin IF list), the forty man roster seems in very good shape to me.

    Every team carries some depth or unready guys to protect them from the DFA/waiver process.

    Particularly with a couple of additions in the spring, waiver claims, maybe a late FA or minor trade, the 26-man "active roster" won't have much room. There are a few bench and bullpen spots open and the competition will be at a higher level than in the past. I like the NRI list too, some intriguing relievers coming off injury.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-06-2020 at 10:51 AM.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Agree with your point. I do think the roster has improved generally, but the Reds still have the following guys on their active roster: Justin Shafer, Ryan Hendrix, Josh Smith, Scott Schebler, Mark Payton (Rule V) and Travis Janikowski. Not exactly a cavalcade of stars there. Still some dreck at the bottom.
    Over the next 2-3 years there is a greater chance some of those guys contribute meaningful innings to the MLB club than Siri or Romano IMO. Even if it's a slim chance.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Agree with your point. I do think the roster has improved generally, but the Reds still have the following guys on their active roster: Justin Shafer, Ryan Hendrix, Josh Smith, Scott Schebler, Mark Payton (Rule V) and Travis Janikowski. Not exactly a cavalcade of stars there. Still some dreck at the bottom.
    Shafer is a league average reliever. (That speaks, IMO, to the strength of the roster.) Smith is a LOOGY with a major league record.

    Schebler is a second-division starter (or was). Jankowski has four years of major league service time.

    Hendrix is a solid relief prospect, and Payton is a Rule V pickup.

    Sure, they're not stars, but for the bottom of a 40-man roster?

    That's incredibly strong.

    It doesn't have as much high-end talent as New York or Houston, but at the bottom, Cincinnati might have more talent than any team not named LA.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Shafer is a league average reliever. (That speaks, IMO, to the strength of the roster.) Smith is a LOOGY with a major league record.

    Schebler is a second-division starter (or was). Jankowski has four years of major league service time.

    Hendrix is a solid relief prospect, and Payton is a Rule V pickup.

    Sure, they're not stars, but for the bottom of a 40-man roster?

    That's incredibly strong.

    It doesn't have as much high-end talent as New York or Houston, but at the bottom, Cincinnati might have more talent than any team not named LA.
    What in Shafer's history makes you believe he is already a league average reliever? He has turned in two sub-replacement level years in the bigs and his AAA numbers are not terrific.

    I think Shafer is clearly the bottom of the 40-man at this point and likely to lose his spot to one of the guys not currently on the 40-man who win a spot in the bullpen over Shafer.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    In looking at the relief competition, being "on roster" is not all that important. There are some NRIs on minor league contracts who can be serious competitors for OD. The roster placement is more of a technical matter than anything else.

    So for three spots we likely have - roster or non-roster - Bowman, Kuhnel, Mahle, Reed, Deleon, Shafer, Sims, Smith, Alaniz, Biddle, Carpenter, Jones, Raley and Thornburg.

    I haven't researched them all but some of the NRIs (e.g., Jones, Biddle, Thornburg) have been slowed by injuries more than anything else.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-06-2020 at 05:32 PM.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    What in Shafer's history makes you believe he is already a league average reliever? He has turned in two sub-replacement level years in the bigs and his AAA numbers are not terrific.

    I think Shafer is clearly the bottom of the 40-man at this point and likely to lose his spot to one of the guys not currently on the 40-man who win a spot in the bullpen over Shafer.
    He has a career 5.50 FIP and a 6.00 xFIP for the record, he is definitely not a league average pitcher.
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Shafer is a league average reliever. (That speaks, IMO, to the strength of the roster.) Smith is a LOOGY with a major league record.

    Schebler is a second-division starter (or was). Jankowski has four years of major league service time.

    Hendrix is a solid relief prospect, and Payton is a Rule V pickup.

    Sure, they're not stars, but for the bottom of a 40-man roster?

    That's incredibly strong.

    It doesn't have as much high-end talent as New York or Houston, but at the bottom, Cincinnati might have more talent than any team not named LA.
    That is a sunny review of each of the players.

    Josh Smith is a 30-year-old with career 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA and 7.32 xFIP. His minor league numbers have been nothing to write home about.

    Jankowski has a career slashline of .241/.317/.318 and a wRC+ of 78.

    I didn't even mention Matt Bowman or Tejay Antone. I'd argue there's a good seven-eight guys nobody would notice if they were released or that might not ever put on a Reds uniform.

    Nobody expects their 40-man to be top-to-bottom all stars, but it just strikes me as funny calling this the best roster in 30 years and watching people bend over backwards to justify it.

    I'm all for optimism, but this is still an organization that's lost a lot more than it's won over the last decade. Things are looking up, but it doesn't turn around overnight.

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  18. #57
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post

    I'm all for optimism, but this is still an organization that's lost a lot more than it's won over the last decade. Things are looking up, but it doesn't turn around overnight.
    Agreed. The team sucked last year. They made 5 significant moves which will improve the team significantly in 2020.. (Guys like Janowski and the bullpen additions are not a significant moves, at least not at this time) Bottom line is that the 40 man roster "quality" is very similar to last year. Slightly improved, but nothing to brag about. We are still going to struggle to put together a competent bullpen. Even if Stroop has a good year, the bullpen is very thin.

    So yea, we have improved, but the 40 man roster is nothing to brag about. Still plenty of chaff on there. The fact that people think Siri and Romano are significant losses proves that the fanbase is overvaluing the Reds talent.. both those guys suck, even if they get one more chance to make good, the odds of them producing well at the MLB level are astronomically small. The Reds have had plenty of time to mold Romano and Siri into good players.. It's failed, time to try something else.

    Now if someone wants to say the 25 man roster improved a lot. Then I agree.
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Shafer is a league average reliever. (That speaks, IMO, to the strength of the roster.) Smith is a LOOGY with a major league record.

    Schebler is a second-division starter (or was). Jankowski has four years of major league service time.

    Hendrix is a solid relief prospect, and Payton is a Rule V pickup.

    Sure, they're not stars, but for the bottom of a 40-man roster?

    That's incredibly strong.

    It doesn't have as much high-end talent as New York or Houston, but at the bottom, Cincinnati might have more talent than any team not named LA.
    With the "three-batter" rule, have "LOOGY's" lost some of their value (and has staggering your LH & RH batters gained a bit)?

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Funny to me how anyone showing a bit of optimism gets shot down by a half dozen resident pessimists. Here I go for the optimistic side of things - I think the bullpen is going to be a strength, not a weakness. I think that the infield could be their weakness if any starter goes down for any significant time and the outfield is a hedged bet on upside - Castellanos is the sure thing and Senzel, Akiyama, Aquino and Winker are strong upside plays - the Reds get consistently strong output from that group, imo. There is room if 1 or 2 fail to deliver for others to pick it up. The starting rotation is strong and has Mahle, DeLeone and Sims as depth. Barnsali gives the Reds decent defense and pretty good offense sans power but no blackhole. Look, some peopletalk like every good team has a strong league average or better player at every spot and its just not true. They have some power sans OBP at SS in Galvis and the opposite kind of offense at C. Iglesias, Garrett, Lorenzen, Stephenson, Strop - that's a strong start for the pen. ANd yes, I'm expecting Iggy & Strop to comeback and the other three to step it up a bit. Reed, Sims, Kuhnel, deLeone and Jones to supply the strongest competiton for the back end of the pen with Bowman, Shafer, ALaniz et al having slim chances to crack the 8 man relief staff. They'll stash a couple of them in Louisville as well as a starting depth candidate. Mahle - I dunno, Louisville as depth or part of the initial 8 man pen. I like Jones a lot, not sold that he'll be healthy as he hasn't been the past couple years. If he is that's another strong arm.

    Now, even an optimist wants to upgrade SS pushing Galvis to a bench role. Doesn't appear Siemen, Story, Seager or Lindor are going anywhere and Segura, while an upgrade, isn't enough of one to be worth the money he'd cost. SO probably stuck with Galvis. Upside would be 25 homers a .290 OBP and good defense (if he's under 20-25 homers he does become a blackhole in the lineup). It gets worse if he goes down though. No one else trustworthy to handle SS for any extended time.

    I see the Reds as competitive within the division with a chance to win it outright. I don't know if they will be in line for a wildcard though if the Central teams beat each other up dropping all of them under the win threshhold for a wildcard spot. Certainly one more good move that would surprise, like grabbing a SS or another reliever, like Giles, would make them the favorite in the Central.
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    With the "three-batter" rule, have "LOOGY's" lost some of their value (and has staggering your LH & RH batters gained a bit)?
    I think true LOOGYs, being those 40 year old lefties who are exceptionally ineffective vs. RH hitters, will become virtually extinct.

    But lefties like Garret who are effective vs. all hitters will see an increase in value.


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