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Thread: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

  1. #61
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Just getting rid of Hernandez and Hughes will make the 2020 bullpen better.


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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I think true LOOGYs, being those 40 year old lefties who are exceptionally ineffective vs. RH hitters, will become virtually extinct.

    But lefties like Garret who are effective vs. all hitters will see an increase in value.
    Garrett wouldn't be classified a LOOGY though.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Do we really think LOOGYs are going to be as widely used with the need to throw to 3 batters?

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Garrett wouldn't be classified a LOOGY though.
    I did not mean to imply he was, as I called him a lefty, not a LOOGY.


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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Two

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Winker, Aquino & Santillan? I'd want a better SS return than Taylor for that package (even if I had to add another piece.
    Not Winker. Aquino and Santillan. Keep Winker.
    All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!

  7. #66
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince recently consulted the FanGraphs’ team Wins Above Replacement projections, and converted those projections to a win total. For the Reds, that was 80 wins -- just five more than in 2019. USA Today was more optimistic, projecting 85 wins. Oddsmakers have the club finishing somewhere between 80 and 84.

    The good news for the Reds is that their National League Central rivals made few major moves this offseason. Those same FanGraphs projections had those teams winning fewer games in 2020: 88 for the Cubs, 84 for the Brewers and 83 for the defending division-champion Cardinals. The Pirates, who finished in last place in ’19, could fall farther back as they begin a massive rebuild.

    Having missed the postseason for six straight seasons, the Reds feel they’ve done enough to challenge for a division title and play October baseball. Now they have to go out and prove it.
    https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-enter-...w-acquisitions

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  9. #67
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Red X View Post
    Do we really think LOOGYs are going to be as widely used with the need to throw to 3 batters?
    IMO there is still a role for lefty specialists.

    Have to select some pitcher to face three hitters. Sometimes the group of three batters will be primarily left handed. Or, there will be one big time lefty hitter in the group. Say Yelich or Freddie Freeman.

    In such cases you’re best option is a great reliever who gets out everyone. But if that guy isn’t available, you might opt for a guy more effective against lefties. No choice - lefty or righty - will be perfect.

    BTW, this is the flaw with the three batter rule. It’s not neutral, if favors offense.. Offense
    can pinch hit to match up against the reliever. The pitching team can’t make a counter move, they’re stuck with their pitcher for three batters.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 08:35 AM.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    IMO there is still a role for lefty specialists.

    Have to select some pitcher to face three hitters. Sometimes the group of three batters will be primarily left handed. Or, there will be one big time lefty hitter in the group. Say Yelich or Freddie Freeman.

    In such cases you’re best option is a great reliever who gets out everyone. But if that guy isn’t available, you might opt for a lefty. No choice - lefty or righty - will be perfect.

    BTW, this is the flaw with the three batter rule. It’s not neutral, if favors offense.. Offense
    can pinch hit to match up against the reliever. The pitching team can’t make a counter move, they’re stuck with their pitcher for three batters.
    The problem then is, you’ve got your LOOGY likely facing 2 right handed batters. And that ace LH batter is probably pretty good vs. Lefties. Think Votto good in his prime. And most true LOOGYS are horrible vs. RH batters.

    The 3 batter rule was never meant to be neutral.




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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The problem then is, you’ve got your LOOGY likely facing 2 right handed batters. And that ace LH batter is probably pretty good vs. Lefties. Think Votto good in his prime. And most true LOOGYS are horrible vs. RH batters.

    The 3 batter rule was never meant to be neutral. -


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    LOOGYs always face RHH. Because teams match up against them and pinch hit. You’ll have to pick your poison for three hitters now, and sometimes the lefty specialist will be the “lesser of evils” depending on the batters due up.

    The 3 batter rule was primarily intended to speed up the game. In so doing they gave an advantage to the offense. They did so with eyes open, sure, but the main goal was to quicken the game.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 08:45 AM.

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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    LOOGYs always face RHH. Because teams match up against them and pinch hit. You’ll have to pick your poison for three hitters now, and sometimes the lefty specialist will be the “lesser of evils” depending on the batters due up.

    The 3 batter rule was primarily intended to speed up the game. In so doing they gave an advantage to the offense. They did so with eyes open, sure, but the main goal was to quicken the game.
    I think having a true LOOGY facing a LH hitter and 2 RH hitters will almost always be a poor choice.

    One, the LH hitter could be PH for. If he's an exceptional hitter who won't be replaced, then odds are that he is decent vs. LH pitching anyway. And then you likely have your worse possible choice vs. the two RH hitters.

    Can you imagine Duke coming in to face Votto, Suarez and Cast with the game on the line. Bring it on.

  16. #71
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    What in Shafer's history makes you believe he is already a league average reliever? He has turned in two sub-replacement level years in the bigs and his AAA numbers are not terrific.
    Depends on which WAR you want to use, I guess.

    Justin Shafer has a career 3.75 ERA. It was 3.86 last year. He earned 0.4 bWAR last year. The ERA ranks in the top half (t-96) among the top 210 relievers in IP. The bWAR ranks slightly higher.

    His FIP is bad, true. So is his WHiP. His BB rate is horrendous in the majors. That flavors both; as a result, his fWAR is below replacement. Still, ZiPS projects him to be a 4.60 or so pitcher, slightly below league average (94 ERA+).

    If that's the worst pitcher on your roster, you're doing very well.

  17. #72
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Interesting that Krall basically indicated the Reds were done shopping this off-season.

    I'd prefer another SS (and may get one as rosters are crunched) and perhaps more disposable relief arms.

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  19. #73
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Interesting that Krall basically indicated the Reds were done shopping this off-season.

    I'd prefer another SS (and may get one as rosters are crunched) and perhaps more disposable relief arms.
    If by "this off-season" you mean before ST, I agree with your interpretation. But his quote was "I would say that for right now, there's nothing on the horizon."

    I thought it was carefully worded and the Reds could still be active before OD. Not expecting a major trade or signing but I think they will be fine tuning the roster. Wouldn't be surprised if they spend a bit more money, the increase in salary between OD 2019 and today is less than some expected.

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  21. #74
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I think having a true LOOGY facing a LH hitter and 2 RH hitters will almost always be a poor choice.

    One, the LH hitter could be PH for. If he's an exceptional hitter who won't be replaced, then odds are that he is decent vs. LH pitching anyway. And then you likely have your worse possible choice vs. the two RH hitters.

    Can you imagine Duke coming in to face Votto, Suarez and Cast with the game on the line. Bring it on.
    The rule is three batters or the end of the half inning. So with two outs, you'll see LOOGYs.

    Beyond that there are still instances when one lefty batter is deemed key; where two (even three) lefties are due up; and different managers willing to gamble or not gamble on lefty specialists. Different quality levels of the lefty specialists.

    Not sure how major the impact will be, we'll find out. David Bell is big on handedness matchups so he may be more cautious with that type pitcher.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 11:24 AM.

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  23. #75
    Member GADawg's Avatar
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    Re: 2019-20 Reds Off Season Rumors,News and Discussions Part Three

    I was just looking they the list of remaining free agents and noticed LuCroy still on there....at 33 has he completely lost it? Seems like a good minor league deal candidate and I’m surprised no one has added him considering some of the backup types I’ve seen signed

    Also we don’t this crowd taking their pants off this early in the day but I did see the name JJ Hoover on the list


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