Just getting rid of Hernandez and Hughes will make the 2020 bullpen better.
Just getting rid of Hernandez and Hughes will make the 2020 bullpen better.
Do we really think LOOGYs are going to be as widely used with the need to throw to 3 batters?
https://www.mlb.com/news/reds-enter-...w-acquisitionsMLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince recently consulted the FanGraphs’ team Wins Above Replacement projections, and converted those projections to a win total. For the Reds, that was 80 wins -- just five more than in 2019. USA Today was more optimistic, projecting 85 wins. Oddsmakers have the club finishing somewhere between 80 and 84.
The good news for the Reds is that their National League Central rivals made few major moves this offseason. Those same FanGraphs projections had those teams winning fewer games in 2020: 88 for the Cubs, 84 for the Brewers and 83 for the defending division-champion Cardinals. The Pirates, who finished in last place in ’19, could fall farther back as they begin a massive rebuild.
Having missed the postseason for six straight seasons, the Reds feel they’ve done enough to challenge for a division title and play October baseball. Now they have to go out and prove it.
IMO there is still a role for lefty specialists.
Have to select some pitcher to face three hitters. Sometimes the group of three batters will be primarily left handed. Or, there will be one big time lefty hitter in the group. Say Yelich or Freddie Freeman.
In such cases you’re best option is a great reliever who gets out everyone. But if that guy isn’t available, you might opt for a guy more effective against lefties. No choice - lefty or righty - will be perfect.
BTW, this is the flaw with the three batter rule. It’s not neutral, if favors offense.. Offense
can pinch hit to match up against the reliever. The pitching team can’t make a counter move, they’re stuck with their pitcher for three batters.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 08:35 AM.
REDREAD (02-07-2020)
The problem then is, you’ve got your LOOGY likely facing 2 right handed batters. And that ace LH batter is probably pretty good vs. Lefties. Think Votto good in his prime. And most true LOOGYS are horrible vs. RH batters.
The 3 batter rule was never meant to be neutral.
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Griffey012 (02-07-2020)
LOOGYs always face RHH. Because teams match up against them and pinch hit. You’ll have to pick your poison for three hitters now, and sometimes the lefty specialist will be the “lesser of evils” depending on the batters due up.
The 3 batter rule was primarily intended to speed up the game. In so doing they gave an advantage to the offense. They did so with eyes open, sure, but the main goal was to quicken the game.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 08:45 AM.
REDREAD (02-07-2020)
I think having a true LOOGY facing a LH hitter and 2 RH hitters will almost always be a poor choice.
One, the LH hitter could be PH for. If he's an exceptional hitter who won't be replaced, then odds are that he is decent vs. LH pitching anyway. And then you likely have your worse possible choice vs. the two RH hitters.
Can you imagine Duke coming in to face Votto, Suarez and Cast with the game on the line. Bring it on.
Depends on which WAR you want to use, I guess.
Justin Shafer has a career 3.75 ERA. It was 3.86 last year. He earned 0.4 bWAR last year. The ERA ranks in the top half (t-96) among the top 210 relievers in IP. The bWAR ranks slightly higher.
His FIP is bad, true. So is his WHiP. His BB rate is horrendous in the majors. That flavors both; as a result, his fWAR is below replacement. Still, ZiPS projects him to be a 4.60 or so pitcher, slightly below league average (94 ERA+).
If that's the worst pitcher on your roster, you're doing very well.
Interesting that Krall basically indicated the Reds were done shopping this off-season.
I'd prefer another SS (and may get one as rosters are crunched) and perhaps more disposable relief arms.
REDREAD (02-07-2020)
If by "this off-season" you mean before ST, I agree with your interpretation. But his quote was "I would say that for right now, there's nothing on the horizon."
I thought it was carefully worded and the Reds could still be active before OD. Not expecting a major trade or signing but I think they will be fine tuning the roster. Wouldn't be surprised if they spend a bit more money, the increase in salary between OD 2019 and today is less than some expected.
Old school 1983 (02-08-2020)
The rule is three batters or the end of the half inning. So with two outs, you'll see LOOGYs.
Beyond that there are still instances when one lefty batter is deemed key; where two (even three) lefties are due up; and different managers willing to gamble or not gamble on lefty specialists. Different quality levels of the lefty specialists.
Not sure how major the impact will be, we'll find out. David Bell is big on handedness matchups so he may be more cautious with that type pitcher.
Last edited by Kc61; 02-07-2020 at 11:24 AM.
I was just looking they the list of remaining free agents and noticed LuCroy still on there....at 33 has he completely lost it? Seems like a good minor league deal candidate and I’m surprised no one has added him considering some of the backup types I’ve seen signed
Also we don’t this crowd taking their pants off this early in the day but I did see the name JJ Hoover on the list
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