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Thread: Segura vs. Galvis

  1. #1
    Member Burger Beer's Avatar
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    Segura vs. Galvis

    I'm kind of ignorant so help me figure this one out. Obviously, an unconfirmed rumor and some free time led to this exercise.

    Here's a comparison of 2019 offense between Segura (top) and Galvis (bottom):

    S...WAR 1.3/ AB 576/ H 161/ HR 12/ BA .280/ R 79/ RBI 60/ SB 10/ OBP .323/ SLG .420/ OPS .743/ OPS+ 90
    G...WAR 1.6/ AB 557/ H 145/ HR 23/ BA .260/ R 67/ RBI 70/ SB 4 / OBP .296/ SLG .438/ OPS .734/ OPS+ 92

    At a glance, it looks like Galvis had more pop (based on homeruns and RBIs) last season; but Segura got more hits, got on base more, stole more bases and scored more runs. Right?

    But maybe Galvis had a really good year and maybe Segura had a bad year:

    Career Lines:

    S...WAR 19.6/ AB 4135/ H 1181/ HR 76/ BA .286/ R 563/ RBI 376/ SB 181/ OBP .326/ SLG .406/ OPS .733/ OPS+ 97
    G...WAR 6.8/ AB 3424/ H 849/ HR 88/ BA .248/ R 365/ RBI 370/ SB 55/ OBP .291/ SLG .384/ OPS .675/ OPS+ 82

    So yeah, Galvis was more Galvis than usual and Segura was maybe a little off in 2019. Right?

    Safe to say...in a vacuum I'd strongly prefer Segura's profile of hitting better/getting on base better/stealing more bases/scoring more runs. Right?

    But what about defense?

    Anecdotally, I have been led to believe that Freddy Galvis is vastly superior to Jean Segura with the glove. And defense matters--at the shortstop position more than anywhere else--right?

    So can somebody help me balance these offensive numbers against their respective defensive metrics to gain a better understanding of which of these two shortstops I'd rather see playing for the Reds this year?

    Bottom line, is Freddy's (presumably) better than average glove and pop a better bargain at $5.5MM for one year--or would you prefer Segura's better hitting profile with a (presumably) below average glove and a 3 year $45MM contract? Oh, and don't forget that Segura will cost something in a trade.
    Last edited by Burger Beer; 02-04-2020 at 09:42 AM.

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  4. #2
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    My take on the two is that Galvis is a superior defender at short, but has a career wRC+ of 79 and over 3,685, he is what he is offensively. He is projected to be barely above replacement level over a full season of plate appearances.

    While Segura is the inferior defender, he is not bad enough to crater his value. He has 4,440 career PA and has a career wRC+ of 96. He was very good offensively between 2016 - 2018, but Steamer expects his 2020 to look much closer to his 2019 of a wRC+ in the 90s.

    Steamer's projection system has Segura as a two-win upgrade over Galvis. If the Reds could acquire Segura without depleting the major league roster or sending significant minor league talent, the Reds would likely pull even closer to the Cubs/Cardinals as projected divisional leaders.

  5. #3
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Since salaries are important, I would rather have Galvis than Segura.
    Defense is important. Galvis is probably the only plus defender we have on the team. Others are possibly Barnhart? Suarez? But even if you count those two guys with Galvis, this team is not great defensively.

    If both Segura and Galvis had the same salary, maybe I would trade off Defense (Galvis) for offense (Seguara), but that extra 10 million for Segura should really go towards the bullpen. I doubt it will, seems like the Reds are doing a bullpen cattle call. Hopefully it works.
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  7. #4
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Screw salary.

    Go for the best player.

    Two wins is a lot.

  8. #5
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Screw salary.

    Go for the best player.

    Two wins is a lot.
    Presumably you will need to subtract $10M elsewhere? The Reds aren't a bottomless pit of money.

  9. #6
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Considering how imprecise stat cast has shown the defensive metrics used to determine WAR are, I wouldn’t be putting much faith into them right now. I am not very confident that Segura would be a 2 WAR player over Galvis. He may more, he may be less.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

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  11. #7
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Presumably you will need to subtract $10M elsewhere? The Reds aren't a bottomless pit of money.
    Has Williams said they've reached their payroll limit?

    If they have, two wins is a lot.

    I'd deal Iglesias, personally.

  12. #8
    Red's fan mbgrayson's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    They are within a few months of being the same age (both will be 30 on opening day). Same height (5' 10"), and Segura is 20 pounds heavier (205 v. 185).

    Those extra two wins could matter....
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  13. #9
    Member Burger Beer's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    As an ignorant newbie with the nomenclature, here's what I got so far:

    Segura is a Cleveland steamer with the glove and he may fall into the depleting roster crater of payroll doom. And we could be misremembering Galvis' dismal dubya-ar-cee. Plus, there's a ten-million dollar cattle call for the bullpen and we should screw salary for two wins.

    Still wondering if Segura's better on-base and run-scoring--with bad defense--offsets Galvis' defense and pop. *Irregardless.*

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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    The Reds have a chance to be a mess defensively at 2nd, RF and LF. I really don't want to get a SS who would also be terrible in the field.

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  17. #11
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    How does Segura’s baserunning rank?

    https://www.theversed.com/10265/watc...y/#.2f1Ln3292N

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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    The Reds have a chance to be a mess defensively at 2nd, RF and LF. I really don't want to get a SS who would also be terrible in the field.
    Winker is the only guy I think will be below average in the OF. Why do you assume RF and LF will be a mess?

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  20. #13
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    I'm not sure why Steamer has Galvis basically a replacement player. He's been consistently over 1 for many years, and has averaged 1.4 over his last 3 years.

    His defense is still good, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be less than a 1.0 WAR player this year.

    I doubt that taking on Segura's contract for 3 more years at $15M is a good idea.

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  22. #14
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    I’m not really interested in Segura. I like his offensive profile, but his contract is very unappealing.

    If I’m Williams/Krall, I’d be locked in on trying to acquire Story or Seager. Failing that, Chris Taylor or Brock Holt would be interesting options in a time share with Galvis.

  23. #15
    Member HammerTime's Avatar
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    Re: Segura vs. Galvis

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    I'm not sure why Steamer has Galvis basically a replacement player. He's been consistently over 1 for many years, and has averaged 1.4 over his last 3 years.

    His defense is still good, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be less than a 1.0 WAR player this year.

    I doubt that taking on Segura's contract for 3 more years at $15M is a good idea.
    Agreed, I wouldn't give up much considering the year he had last year and that contract.

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