Segura vs. Galvis

[NeilHamburger]

Winker is the only guy I think will be below average in the OF. Why do you assume RF and LF will be a mess?

Well, I guess it depends on if they play Castellanos and Winker at the same time.

[RedTeamGo!]

Galvis hits for more power, segeura hits for higher average. Pretty much a wash to me. I’ll take the dude that can hit 25 homers and play a solid defensive SS.

[NeilHamburger]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to get more offense from either SS or C. But, with the players they've acquired already, with said players defensive limitations, or in the case of Moustakas changing positions and with the offensive upside already acquired I really feel you need a steady hand at SS.

That doesn't mean you don't try and acquire a SS who can both hit and field. But, a bat first SS at this point doesn't seem like a good idea to me.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Galvis hits for more power, segeura hits for higher average. Pretty much a wash to me. I’ll take the dude that can hit 25 homers and play a solid defensive SS.

Segura, fwiw, was -1 OAA as a SS last year. In 2018, he was league average as a defender. So it's not like he carries an iron glove or is a statue.

Galvis, according to Statcast, is definitely the superior glove. But his ZiPS projections are putrid: .254/ .297/ .400/ 80 OPS+ and a 1.4 fWAR. The rest of the projection systems like him even less.

Segura is far better with the bat and his legs. He projects to be somewhere close to league average offensively and solid defensively. (ZiPS says .291/ .334/ .434/ 768/ 100 OPS+ and 2.4 fWAR.)

Even with the better glove, Galvis isn't as good a player.

[Edd Roush]

I'm not sure why Steamer has Galvis basically a replacement player. He's been consistently over 1 for many years, and has averaged 1.4 over his last 3 years.

His defense is still good, and it's hard to imagine that he'll be less than a 1.0 WAR player this year.

I doubt that taking on Segura's contract for 3 more years at $15M is a good idea.

Steamer does give us the inputs for how it came up with the output of replacement level player.

Essentially, Steamer sees Galvis to hit a little worse than he has throughout his career, due to a decreasing BB rate and increasing K rate. They see him hitting for a bit more power than his career, but not as much as he hit for last year. Compounding that with his diminishing defensive ability leads to a replacement level player.

[REDREAD]

Screw salary.

Go for the best player.

Two wins is a lot.

Not arguing, but where is the 2 wins coming from? In the orginal post, last year , Galvis was 1.6 WAR and Seguara was 1.3 WAR.. Now I agree, maybe Segoura had an off year, but let's say Galvis stayst he same.. I doubt Segura is a 3.6+ WAR player next year. Sure, he's done it three times since 2012, but that is a pretty hard crash last year. Segura was 29 last year, and just got a huge contract.. that has a way of making some players complacent. OF course, I don't know the guy, maybe there was another reason, but over 3 years, that's a 40 million dollar risk.. Seems like his defense has slipped too, from what I read.. I will pass and find a way to add 2 wins to the bullpen instead.. YEa, I know based on how WAR is caculated, that's hard.. but honestly.. if the Reds added another dominant reliever, it's potentially more than 2 wins.. Lorenzen can't pitch every time the Reds have a lead. Iglesis is a headcase until proven otherwise (and HR prone). Garrett will probably be ok.. That's your pen.. Maybe RStephenson is decent, maybe not.. everyone else is chaff or a longshot.

[Kc61]

Segura’s in the middle of a 5 year $70 million contract. He’s owed about $43 million over the next three years.

Unless the Phils pay most of his salary, I hang up the phone. Even if he’s better than Galvis overall, I’m not tying up that kind of money in Segura. I’d rather use Galvis in 2020 and then look at the marketplace or possibly Garcia in the minors.

FWIW, I kind of like Galvis for his defense, power and leadership. Incomplete player but not a bad guy in the absence of a premium shortstop.

[Wonderful Monds]

I do like Segura’s upside more than I like Galvis, but I wouldn’t pay him 15 mil a year or so for the privilege. If they could get the Phils to pay half his salary, I’d do it.

I’d do Aquino and a prospect for Segura and half his salary. Not sure how realistic that is.

[Kc61]

I do like Segura’s upside more than I like Galvis, but I wouldn’t pay him 15 mil a year or so for the privilege. If they could get the Phils to pay half his salary, I’d do it.

I’d do Aquino and a prospect for Segura and half his salary. Not sure how realistic that is.

Hate to trade Aquino unless in a package for a star. I see “Encarnacion risk” sending him off.

But agree the conversation could begin if Phils would pay half Segura’s salary, which they probably won’t. I think he’s slated to play second for them this year, no? That’s what I’ve read.

[RedsManRick]

Not arguing, but where is the 2 wins coming from? In the orginal post, last year , Galvis was 1.6 WAR and Seguara was 1.3 WAR.. Now I agree, maybe Segoura had an off year, but let's say Galvis stayst he same.. I doubt Segura is a 3.6+ WAR player next year. Sure, he's done it three times since 2012, but that is a pretty hard crash last year. Segura was 29 last year, and just got a huge contract.. that has a way of making some players complacent. OF course, I don't know the guy, maybe there was another reason, but over 3 years, that's a 40 million dollar risk.. Seems like his defense has slipped too, from what I read.. I will pass and find a way to add 2 wins to the bullpen instead.. YEa, I know based on how WAR is caculated, that's hard.. but honestly.. if the Reds added another dominant reliever, it's potentially more than 2 wins.. Lorenzen can't pitch every time the Reds have a lead. Iglesis is a headcase until proven otherwise (and HR prone). Garrett will probably be ok.. That's your pen.. Maybe RStephenson is decent, maybe not.. everyone else is chaff or a longshot.

Looking at the depth chart projections on Fangraphs:

Segura: 651 PA, -1.3 batting runs (above average), -0.3 fielding runs, +1.5 baserunning runs. More or less a league average player.
Galvis: 588 PA, -22.4 batting runs, -1.7 fielding runs, +0.4 baserunnning runs. More or less a replacement level player, thanks to his horrible bat.

That's what fWAR sees. A 20 run advantage for Segura all coming from the difference in their bats. If you want to adjust that that because you think it underrates Galvis's defense (the new statcast data suggests it does) or what have you, feel free to make that argument and go for it.

Why are those projections so different from 2019? Because last year only tells us so much about about a player's talent level. It tells us more than any other individual season, but it makes up less than half of the best talent estimate/next year projection.

All that said, I do find the -22 batting runs projection for Galvis to be a touch odd. I'm not sure why it would peg him for such a regression back down to his career worst level of performance. The ZiPS projection strikes me as more typical give his recent track record and that has him at 1.3 WAR due to being something like 5 runs better both offensively and defensively.

I don't think I'd be trading too much for that 1ish WAR upgrade. But I wouldn't write it off either. As for adding 2 wins in the bullpen. I'd LOVE to see how you're going to that for less than the cost of Segura. If you think the Reds middle relief is suspect, which available relievers are you chasing?

[bah1286]

If I’m the Reds I’m not looking to get rid of Galvis. I keep looking for an upgrade at short and if the right deal for a major upgrade is there you send Galvis and take on more money. Ideally, I would still like to keep him because he would be an amazing player to have coming off the bench. For such a minimal upgrade, I would ride with Galvis and spend that money to upgrade elsewhere.

[Wonderful Monds]

Hate to trade Aquino unless in a package for a star. I see “Encarnacion risk” sending him off.

But agree the conversation could begin if Phils would pay half Segura’s salary, which they probably won’t. I think he’s slated to play second for them this year, no? That’s what I’ve read.

I’m not too worried about that risk with Aquino. Edwin always flashed some plate discipline even as a Red, he always had the potential. Aquino has abysmal plate discipline, even during the month he went nuclear. I am completely willing to roll the dice on trading that. Worst case scenario you trade away Khris Davis or Mark Trumbo, IMO.

[Redsfan6272]

I’m not really interested in Segura. I like his offensive profile, but his contract is very unappealing.

If I’m Williams/Krall, I’d be locked in on trying to acquire Story or Seager. Failing that, Chris Taylor or Brock Holt would be interesting options in a time share with Galvis.

Story just extended 2 years- Dont see him now being traded.
Seager wont go anywhere unless Lindor is going to LA and i doubt he gets traded.

I rather the Reds go after Semien from the A's over Taylor. His 80+ extra base hits would be huge in GABP!!!

[Wonderful Monds]

Story just extended 2 years- Dont see him now being traded.
Seager wont go anywhere unless Lindor is going to LA and i doubt he gets traded.

I rather the Reds go after Semien from the A's over Taylor. His 80+ extra base hits would be huge in GABP!!!

He wasn’t extended, they just put his last 2 arb year totals in stone. If anything that probably makes him more tradeable.

[JFLegal]

segura is extremely overpaid.