Spring Training Battles

[corkedbat]

I think Reds know right now if they will carry Aquino. They have a glut of OFers and undoubtedly a plan that is not dependent on spring training performance.

As for “starting RFer.” Dick Williams is a fan of OF rotation, he spoke highly of it last time around. I expect several of them to rotate in the OF with Castellanos playing every day.

The problem with AA to the minors is that he is capable of carrying the offense for periods, he’s wasted at AAA. Nothing to do with whether he is personally bothered by it.

They might have an idea of what they would like to do, but if he stinks up the desert in ST, with his available option, it makes it easier to send him down until he fixes is stroke even if they planned on keeping him. Conversely, if they had planned on utilizing his option going into the Spring, but he mashes like August there's pressure to keep him ( raising the possibility of a trade with him or another OF).

[Kc61]

They might have an idea of what they would like to do, but if he stinks up the desert in ST, with his available option, it makes it easier to send him down until he fixes is stroke even if they planned on keeping him. Conversely, if they had planned on utilizing his option going into the Spring, but he mashes like August there's pressure to keep him ( raising the possibility of a trade with him or another OF).

Too much emphasis on spring training results IMO.

If you plan to make a trade, make a trade.

Don’t be sidetracked by cactus performance. Reds know Aquino, don’t be swayed by ST small sample while player is training for the season.

[Ren Deagle]

What I see is this:
Best all around OF: Akiyama. Can play all three positions, looks like he's a better than average hitter.
Best bat; Castellanos.
Best potential: Senzel.
Biggest Enigma: Aquino. He's never been consistent in the minors, and only hit when the ball was considered suspicious.
Most limited: Winker. The platoon split, slow, defense.
4th outfielder: Ervin.
5th outfielder/glove man: Jankowski. Maybe Payton.
Hey we can play LF too: Blandino, Farmer, Galvis, Van Meter.
Break glass in case of emergency: Michael Lorenzen
The Geico/Progressive player: Scott Schebler.
Dark Horse: Stuart Fairchild

As I see it, the best potential outfield has Akiyama, Castellanos, and Senzel getting most of the starts. Whoever the 4th outfielder is behind those players is, he needs to have a good glove and a decent bat.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Too much emphasis on spring training results IMO.

If you plan to make a trade, make a trade.

Don’t be sidetracked by cactus performance. Reds know Aquino, don’t be swayed by ST small sample while player is training for the season.

I don't think it would necessarily be basing the decision solely on Spring Training, it would just be another data point for a player lacking in data points. Here's what we know:

* He was a pretty good prospect
* Was DFA'd after the 2018 season after an uneven performance at AA
* Had a poor performance in winter ball
* Mashed the daylights out of the juiced AAA ball for half a season in 2019 after a swing adjustment
* Had a historically great month in the MLB
* Had a putrid month in the MLB
* Had a poor 11 game performance in winter ball

When a guy is this big of an enigma, spring will help decipher what is real

[HammerTime]

What I see is this:
Best all around OF: Akiyama. Can play all three positions, looks like he's a better than average hitter.
Best bat; Castellanos.
Best potential: Senzel.
Biggest Enigma: Aquino. He's never been consistent in the minors, and only hit when the ball was considered suspicious.
Most limited: Winker. The platoon split, slow, defense.
4th outfielder: Ervin.
5th outfielder/glove man: Jankowski. Maybe Payton.
Hey we can play LF too: Blandino, Farmer, Galvis, Van Meter.
Break glass in case of emergency: Michael Lorenzen
The Geico/Progressive player: Scott Schebler.
Dark Horse: Stuart Fairchild

As I see it, the best potential outfield has Akiyama, Castellanos, and Senzel getting most of the starts. Whoever the 4th outfielder is behind those players is, he needs to have a good glove and a decent bat.

The status of Suarez could slightly alter to start the season for a few weeks, but I agree 100%.

[BCubb2003]

Is Big Sal back in play now?

[CaiGuy]

Add Derek Dietrich to the mix...I am thinking he gets a spot on the bench.

[Kc61]

I don't think it would necessarily be basing the decision solely on Spring Training, it would just be another data point for a player lacking in data points. Here's what we know:

* He was a pretty good prospect
* Was DFA'd after the 2018 season after an uneven performance at AA
* Had a poor performance in winter ball
* Mashed the daylights out of the juiced AAA ball for half a season in 2019 after a swing adjustment
* Had a historically great month in the MLB
* Had a putrid month in the MLB
* Had a poor 11 game performance in winter ball

When a guy is this big of an enigma, spring will help decipher what is real

The Reds have a glut of outfielders. In situations like that, I believe teams go into ST with a plan. I don’t believe they leave very much to ST performance.

In Reds’ case they have all these OFers, and four who hit right handed. Castellanos, Senzel, Ervin, Aquino. There’s redundancy. Even against LHP (1/4 of the games) won’t accommodate all the RH OFers.

ST might matter when you are looking at someone coming off injury or a marginal new guy you haven’t seen before.

But in this case I think they know right now about the OF, have a plan, and are very likely to stick with it. They may be waiting to get a sense of Senzel’s health situation, that’s something early ST will help reveal.

[allpurpose]

There is another possibility that may or may not play out. One of the fringe players may just tear up things in ST and play themselves into a key trade chip. Suppose, for example, Aquino hits every single pitch out of the park he becomes a very attractive trade piece. The same could potentially apply for Winker, VanMeter, Ervin or just about any bullpen arm. it's not as if nobody has ever looked like superman in ST only to fall of a cliff once the regular season begins and some team wasn't wetting their pants hoping to trade away a potential superstar to nab them.. It happens.. After all, there were plenty of people who wrongfully thought Aquino was going to do nothing but hit every pitch out of the park forever.. How other teams may have viewed him is anyone's guess.

[MoneyInTheBank]

The Reds have a glut of outfielders. In situations like that, I believe teams go into ST with a plan. I donÂ’t believe they leave very much to ST performance.

In RedsÂ’ case they have all these OFers, and four who hit right handed. Castellanos, Senzel, Ervin, Aquino. ThereÂ’s redundancy. Even against LHP (1/4 of the games) wonÂ’t accommodate all the RH OFers.

ST might matter when you are looking at someone coming off injury or a marginal new guy you havenÂ’t seen before.

But in this case I think they know right now about the OF, have a plan, and are very likely to stick with it. They may be waiting to get a sense of SenzelÂ’s health situation, thatÂ’s something early ST will help reveal.

Totally agree that every team has a plan going into ST and the plan is to execute the plan. Where we diverge is ignoring another data point for player evaluation for the sake of executing your predetermined plan.

If the plan is to take Aquino north, that likely means a DFA for Ervin, who will almost certainly be traded or claimed.

If Aquino stinks in ST, that means the last 3 data points we have on him have been very bad (September, Winter League and Spring Training). What's the harm in keeping Ervin, who has a multi season track record of hitting lefties, and seeing if Aquino mashes at AAA again? If he does, DFA Ervin and bring him up.

If Aquino is good to great in ST, it's easier to believe his ability to land closer to 2019 AAA/August than the rest of his resume.

(Full disclosure, I don't love the idea of Aquino as a 5th OFer to begin with, but I'm putting that aside for this exercise)

[WrongVerb]

[Bob Sheed]

#1 If Schebler still can't beat the shift, I don't care if he bats 1.000 in spring training.

#2 I wonder if Aquino was cheating last season and then lost his trash can banger in September...

[CmdrCody]

Totally agree that every team has a plan going into ST and the plan is to execute the plan. Where we diverge is ignoring another data point for player evaluation for the sake of executing your predetermined plan.

If the plan is to take Aquino north, that likely means a DFA for Ervin, who will almost certainly be traded or claimed.

If Aquino stinks in ST, that means the last 3 data points we have on him have been very bad (September, Winter League and Spring Training). What's the harm in keeping Ervin, who has a multi season track record of hitting lefties, and seeing if Aquino mashes at AAA again? If he does, DFA Ervin and bring him up.

If Aquino is good to great in ST, it's easier to believe his ability to land closer to 2019 AAA/August than the rest of his resume.

(Full disclosure, I don't love the idea of Aquino as a 5th OFer to begin with, but I'm putting that aside for this exercise)

Ervin doesn’t have a MULTI SEASON track record of hitting lefties. Prior to last year his splits were pretty even vs lefties and righties at approx .250 batting average against each.

[Kc61]

I hated that Reds sent Ervin to AAA last March. He was almost age 27; had done well in 2018 at AAA and at end of MLB season. You bring along these prospects, when ready let them play in the big leagues. If there’s truly no room, then trade someone. AAA at age 26-27 is a value killer, the perception becomes that they’re journeymen.

I feel that way about Aquino this season. After that display last year there’s no purpose for AAA. He’ll be 26 in April, let him play even in a part time role. If Reds are truly concerned that his hot streak was a fluke, then use his value in the trade market.

The exception is AAAA-type role players, they can go up and down to and from AAA as long as possible, there’s nothing to lose hanging on to them. But true prospects should not be stashed in the minors IMO.

[OGB]

The Reds have a glut of outfielders. In situations like that, I believe teams go into ST with a plan. I don’t believe they leave very much to ST performance.

In Reds’ case they have all these OFers, and four who hit right handed. Castellanos, Senzel, Ervin, Aquino. There’s redundancy. Even against LHP (1/4 of the games) won’t accommodate all the RH OFers.

ST might matter when you are looking at someone coming off injury or a marginal new guy you haven’t seen before.

But in this case I think they know right now about the OF, have a plan, and are very likely to stick with it. They may be waiting to get a sense of Senzel’s health situation, that’s something early ST will help reveal.

Just another reminder that in '99 they got at least 123 games out of 5 outfielders and and that Dimitri Young had 409 PAs, Hammonds had 293 and Tucker had 340.