Spring Training Battles

[corkedbat]

1.
a) Reed (if Healthy). If not, Smith or Biddle.
b) One of: DeLeon, Jones. Thornberg, Shafer, Kuhnel, Bowman, Biddle, Smith,
c) A "long" guy - either Mahle, Sims or even Bowman (I'd want Mahle starting every 5th day in L'ville & Sims has more experience in relief & has no option) edge Sims

2, 3 & 4. There will be a rotation (if no downright platoons). Shogo & Senzel will split almost all CF opportunities with Shogo getting the lion's share early if Suarez is on the DL OD, prompting Senzel to the INF until he returns. If both are in the same OF, Shogo will be in a corner with Senzel in CF. Ervin will get ABs in LF for Jesse vs. LH starters. That leaves Aquino. They will only carry 5 predominantly-OF bodies at one time, IMO. If Suarez is on the DL early, Aquino makes it or if Aritides beastmodes in Goodyear he makes it. Because of his defense, when in the lineup, Aristides is the RF and if he's hitting anywhere near like he was in August, he doesn't sit often. If Suarez answers the OD bell and AA's bat is not blazing, I think there's a good chance AA's available option gets him a temporary ticket to AAA. If all stay healthy, the variable that will factor into OF makeup between now & Aug. 1 will be the trade market. I still believe at least one of Senzel, Winker, Ervin or Aquino will be elsewhere. Be it by Opening Day or be it by the deadline, I still expect a deal to occur. If there is a deal (or injury) affecting one or more OFers, Schebler, Payton or Jankowski could be darkhorse candidates to be the 26th man.

5. If there isn't a ST deal for a stating SS, I don't know you need a dedicated SS backup for the Fredster right away. I think he could easily play about every day in April. If he's injured, you could see One of Farmer, Senzel or even Geno play there to finish out a game (& then call up a guy from (AAA or AA) before the next game. Blandino is an option if you want someone to start a handful of games to spot Galvis on occasion. If you want more of a full-fledged backup SS, Colon makes sense. As the season rolls on, AlfRod may even enter the discussion.

Dislaimer: As always, trades &/or injuries could blow all the of this right the Hell up.

[mth123]

I hated that Reds sent Ervin to AAA last March. He was almost age 27; had done well in 2018 at AAA and at end of MLB season. You bring along these prospects, when ready let them play in the big leagues. If there’s truly no room, then trade someone. AAA at age 26-27 is a value killer, the perception becomes that they’re journeymen.

I feel that way about Aquino this season. After that display last year there’s no purpose for AAA. He’ll be 26 in April, let him play even in a part time role. If Reds are truly concerned that his hot streak was a fluke, then use his value in the trade market.

The exception is AAAA-type role players, they can go up and down to and from AAA as long as possible, there’s nothing to lose hanging on to them. But true prospects should not be stashed in the minors IMO.

1. Ervin is a "journeyman" type. Decent bench guy, but probably interchangeable with a bunch of other guys they can get on the cheap. His speed makes him a little different than a lot of other lefty killing RH bats that can't field, but not much.

2. I agree they should trade somebody. Aquino seems like the guy. He just seems 5th in the pecking order behind the guy they signed to the largest FA deal in team history, the guy who was a top 10 prospect for a couple years, the guy with a career 120 OPS+ in 855 PAs and the guy they signed for 3 years, $21 Million deal from Japan. I think with Senzel getting 40 or so starts at 2B while Votto, Moose and Suarez rest and with Winker sitting against RHP, I think there is easily 500 PAs for Senzel, Shogo and Castellanos with probably over 600 for Cast. I'm not worried about having too much talent. Good teams have good players who don't play every day. Still, if dealing Aquino can fill a hole, like say, late inning relief, then ship him out.

[MoneyInTheBank]

Ervin doesn’t have a MULTI SEASON track record of hitting lefties. Prior to last year his splits were pretty even vs lefties and righties at approx .250 batting average against each.

2017 was a small sample size but he hit lefties very well, but yes, in 2018 he was pretty flat

[MoneyInTheBank]

I hated that Reds sent Ervin to AAA last March. He was almost age 27; had done well in 2018 at AAA and at end of MLB season. You bring along these prospects, when ready let them play in the big leagues. If there’s truly no room, then trade someone. AAA at age 26-27 is a value killer, the perception becomes that they’re journeymen.

I feel that way about Aquino this season. After that display last year there’s no purpose for AAA. He’ll be 26 in April, let him play even in a part time role. If Reds are truly concerned that his hot streak was a fluke, then use his value in the trade market.

The exception is AAAA-type role players, they can go up and down to and from AAA as long as possible, there’s nothing to lose hanging on to them. But true prospects should not be stashed in the minors IMO.

I'd be open to a trade. I think we can agree that Akiyama and Castellanos are off limits, so a trade would involve Winker, Senzel or Aquino. If you trade Aquino, I'm not sure you would get all that much. Other teams have seen his up and down career and I truly believe the offers will reflect that. At this point, I think his value to the Reds is more than any other team because of that potential to be something great (since I don't believe you would get that value on the market). Senzel, because of injury history, again would bring back below value for such a highly regarded prospect. Unless it's a star SS coming back, I'd hang onto Senzel.

Winker is the tough one. Maybe he brings you back a decent bullpen arm. Then Aquino becomes the 4th OFer and maybe Akiyama's platoon partner (not sure how he hits lefties yet). If Aquino stinks, you would still have Ervin as your 5th OFer. If the offers for Winker are junk, I don't think I trade him just to trade him.

I think the prospect/journeyman stuff is painting with a broad brush a bit. I don't think it just tanks Aquino's value to start him at AAA this season versus starting him on the bench in the majors but I'll agree to disagree on that.

[Kc61]

I'd be open to a trade. I think we can agree that Akiyama and Castellanos are off limits, so a trade would involve Winker, Senzel or Aquino. If you trade Aquino, I'm not sure you would get all that much. Other teams have seen his up and down career and I truly believe the offers will reflect that. At this point, I think his value to the Reds is more than any other team because of that potential to be something great (since I don't believe you would get that value on the market). Senzel, because of injury history, again would bring back below value for such a highly regarded prospect. Unless it's a star SS coming back, I'd hang onto Senzel.

Winker is the tough one. Maybe he brings you back a decent bullpen arm. Then Aquino becomes the 4th OFer and maybe Akiyama's platoon partner (not sure how he hits lefties yet). If Aquino stinks, you would still have Ervin as your 5th OFer. If the offers for Winker are junk, I don't think I trade him just to trade him.

I think the prospect/journeyman stuff is painting with a broad brush a bit. I don't think it just tanks Aquino's value to start him at AAA this season versus starting him on the bench in the majors but I'll agree to disagree on that.

At one point I expected a Winker trade. But most Reds OF are RHH. And Williams and Krall are constantly stressing OBP in their interviews. So I no longer expect that.

I think we all felt Senzel might go for a shortstop. That would be a major deal, I no longer expect that.

Now most likely moves are an Ervin trade or Aquino option to AAA. I’d rather make room with the trade but it could go either way.

[Kc61]

Note on the above discussion of OD roster - Reds’ second series of the new season have DH games. At Toronto. That could influence the OD roster.

Blue Jays are projected to have three righties and two lefties in rotation according to Roster Resource.

If it works out that Reds face two Jays lefties, could see Reds keeping both Ervin and Aquino for opening week, just to provide a heavy RH presence during that DH series. Maybe Winker would DH against any RHSP in the AL cities.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Hypothetically:

v. RH
Akiyama CF
Votto 1B
Suarez 3B
Moustakas 2B
Winker DH
Castellanos RF
Josh VanMeter or Dietrich LF
Barnhart C
Galvis SS

v LH
Senzel CF
Votto 1B
Suarez 3B
Castellanos DH
Aquino RF
Ervin LF
Moustakas 2B
Casali C
Farmer or Blandino or Galvis SS

[HammerTime]

2. I agree they should trade somebody. Aquino seems like the guy. He just seems 5th in the pecking order behind the guy they signed to the largest FA deal in team history, the guy who was a top 10 prospect for a couple years, the guy with a career 120 OPS+ in 855 PAs and the guy they signed for 3 years, $21 Million deal from Japan. I think with Senzel getting 40 or so starts at 2B while Votto, Moose and Suarez rest and with Winker sitting against RHP, I think there is easily 500 PAs for Senzel, Shogo and Castellanos with probably over 600 for Cast. I'm not worried about having too much talent. Good teams have good players who don't play every day. Still, if dealing Aquino can fill a hole, like say, late inning relief, then ship him out.

And odds are one of the 4-5 will be injured/ hurt and miss some time,hopefully not much. There will be enough at bats for everyone I think.

[JaxRed]

I think the most likely guy to be traded in the OF is Jankowski. The Shogo acquisition makes him totally redundant IMO. I don't believe Reds would have signed him if they knew they were getting Shogo. I think it's likely that Castellanos is a one year and then gone guy so we can't do a big purge of outfielders.

It would be awesome if Oakland needed a guy like Jankowski. We could trade him for rights to Payton. And then put Payton in AAA.

At least to start the season I expect Aquino to start in AAA unless he just crushes things in Spring Training. Just solves a lot of problems if he does. And if there's any issue with Senzel fielding put him on DL. Again pushed decisions down the road a bit.

Van Meter to AAA to start unless he is up for Suarez.

I expect the Schebler decision to be harder for Reds than most here expect. They said his shoulder injury was way worse than they thought.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think the most likely guy to be traded in the OF is Jankowski.

If anyone wanted him, that may be an option.

I suspect they'll try to slip him through the waiver wire in the hopes of hiding him in AAA. (Because I don't think there's a huge market for guys like him.)

[JaxRed]

I should have said traded/waived.

[757690]

From Nightengale twitter:

#Reds injury updates: RHP Nate Jones is not expected to participate in games until the 2nd week of spring training. He had right flexor mass surgery last May.

LHP Jesse Biddle had arthroscopic surgery in Sept., and won't pitch before the 2nd week of spring.

[allpurpose]

Scott Schebler batted .413 in last years spring training. Put Aquino in right field on opening day no matter how he does in Spring Training.

Austin Kearns was an awesome spring training player..........

I'm not sure I'd count Schebler out at this point. Yeah, last year was horrible for him, but that was then, this is now. He's never been my favorite Red, but not my least favorite either. When he's hot it's tough to sit a guy like Scheb.. It makes me wonder exactly when his injury occurred. Was it just as ST ended or as the season got under way? Tough to believe he hit over .400 in ST with the same injury.

[Tom Servo]

Bobby Nightengale
@nightengalejr

David Bell is beginning to plan lineups for the first Cactus League games. He said Shogo Akiyama will start in CF on Sunday. #Reds

[Edd Roush]

LOL so I guess Shogo playing left and right is in addition to him playing centerfield. If Shogo still is an above average defensive CF and can hit near the projections we have seen for him, it makes sense for him to be the everyday CF.

I am still so confused about what they intend to do with Nick Senzel.